Winner: Rafa Garcia
Confidence Score: 62Rafa Garcia has a significant grappling edge with a higher takedown accuracy (43% vs 33%) and much better takedown defense (77% vs 63%), which is crucial in a matchup against a pressure fighter like Jared Gordon. Garcia is younger by six years (30 vs 36), and younger lightweights have a historical edge in similar matchups. Garcia also absorbs fewer significant strikes due to a higher strike defense (61% vs 57%), and his submission threat (9 wins by sub) is a stylistic concern for Gordon, who has been finished before. While Gordon has more knockout power and a higher striking accuracy, Garcia's durability and ability to control where the fight takes place—combined with his recent form against strong opposition—give him the edge in a closely matched contest.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.