Rongzhu vs Hubbard: UFC Shanghai Betting Preview & Odds

Rongzhu vs Austin Hubbard fight analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, August 23, 2025, two hungry lightweights collide on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang. The action kicks off at 07:00 UTC from the iconic Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Xuhui District, Shanghai, China. As the first bout of the night’s preliminary slate, this lightweight scrap promises fireworks right out of the gate, pitting the undefeated-at-home Chinese phenom Zhu “Rongzhu” Rong against long‐time UFC veteran Austin Hubbard.

Event Details

• Date: Saturday, August 23, 2025
• Start Time: 07:00 UTC (15:00 CST local time)
• Venue: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Xuhui District, Shanghai, China
• Card Placement: Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang

The Favorite and the Underdog

As the crowd files in to witness the main events later in the evening, eyes will be on the first fight of the night. According to the latest odds from BetOnline.ag, Zhu Rong enters as a heavy favorite at –320 (American), while Austin Hubbard is firmly cast as the underdog at +270.

• Favorite (–320): Zhu Rong has impressed fans with a 26-6 professional record, including 15 knockouts and 6 submissions. At just 24 years old, “Rongzhu” boasts lightning-fast hands, 51% significant striking accuracy and an elite 63% takedown success rate. His relentless pace has led to 12 first‐round finishes, making him one of the most dangerous finishers in the lightweight division.
• Underdog (+270): At 33 years old, Austin Hubbard is the seasoned veteran with a 17-9 record, 5 knockouts and 2 submissions. Hubbard’s experience shows in his 56% significant strike defense and 68% takedown defense. Though he has faced recent adversity—dropping back-to-back split decisions to Marquel Mederos and Alexander Hernandez—Hubbard remains a tough, well‐rounded competitor capable of capitalizing on openings.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Stylistic Contrast: Striker vs. grappler hybrid. Rongzhu’s relentless striking barrage and takedown prowess will test Hubbard’s defensive wrestling and calm southern‐style boxing.
2. Career Trajectories: Rongzhu aims to remain undefeated in front of his home crowd and position himself for bigger fights, while Hubbard needs a statement win to halt his two‐fight skid and reassert himself in the crowded lightweight landscape.
3. Market Implications: Bettors see value on the American underdog at +270, banking on Hubbard’s veteran savvy to weather the early storm. Conversely, backing the hometown hero at –320 appeals to those confident in Rongzhu’s finishing instincts and superior finish rate.

This lightweight showdown sets the tone for an exciting night in Shanghai. Will Rongzhu steamroll the visiting challenger, or can Austin Hubbard rewrite the script and pull off a massive upset? The answers arrive at 07:00 UTC on August 23.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rongzhu vs Austin Hubbard can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Walker vs Zhang can be found on the Walker vs Zhang event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Austin Hubbard (The Underdog)

Age: 33
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestler / Boxer

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Mar. 29, 2025 – Loss vs Marquel Mederos (Decision – Split)
• Oct. 5, 2024 – Loss vs Alexander Hernandez (Decision – Split)
• Apr. 27, 2024 – Win vs Michal Figlak (Decision – Unanimous)
• Aug. 19, 2023 – Loss vs Kurt Holobaugh (Submission – R2, 2:39)
• Aug. 21, 2021 – Loss vs Vinc Pichel (Decision – Unanimous)

Hubbard enters this clash on a 1–4 run, with his lone victory over Figlak showcasing his ability to control distance and grind out decisions. However, back-to-back split-decision losses highlight a need for more decisive offense.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (68%): One of the best in the division at stuffing trips and sprawls, vital against a heavy-takedown artist like Rongzhu.
• Significant Strike Defense (56%): Absorbs only 44% of opponents’ power shots, giving him a solid foundation to weather an early onslaught.
• Experience & Durability: 26 professional fights in the UFC cage have honed his fight IQ and chin, making him a tough night’s work.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (32%): Struggles to consistently plant opponents against the fence, limiting his ability to mix up striking and grappling threats.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (44%): Below-average precision means Hubbard must overcommit to land meaningful shots, potentially opening himself to counters.
• Finishing Power: Only 2 first-round finishes in 17 wins indicate limited one-punch knockout threat, relying more on volume than singular power.

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Zhu “Rongzhu” Rong (The Favorite)

Age: 24
Country: China
Fighting Style: Striker with Strong Wrestling Base

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Feb. 8, 2025 – Win vs Kody Steele (Decision – Unanimous)
• Sep. 7, 2024 – Loss vs Chris Padilla (TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage R2, 4:14)
• Feb. 26, 2022 – Loss vs Ignacio Bahamondes (Submission R3, 1:40)
• Sep. 18, 2021 – Win vs Brandon Jenkins (KO/TKO R3, 4:35)
• Apr. 24, 2021 – Loss vs Kazula Vargas (Decision – Unanimous)

Rongzhu is 3–2 in his last five, but his two defeats came against top-flight talent. His most recent unanimous decision win over Steele demonstrated tactical growth and cardio at distance.

Strengths

• Finishing Rate: 12 first-round finishes in 32 total bouts. Relentless pace and power punches keep opponents on their heels.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (51%): Lands over half of his power shots, indicating crisp timing and sharp technical output.
• Takedown Offense (63%): Blends wrestling entries seamlessly with striking feints to control where the fight goes.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense (50%): Vulnerable to counters—catches nearly half of incoming power shots. Hubbard’s defensive acumen could exploit this.
• Historical Submission Defense: Though he boasts an 85% takedown defense, his lone UFC submission loss to Bahamondes hints at a potential ground-game gap under duress.
• Experience vs. Elite Opposition: Only 4 UFC appearances; may face adversity when Hubbard pushes a slower, grinding pace.

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Stylistic Clash

• Striking vs. Wrestling: Rongzhu’s high‐octane striking and heavy takedowns will clash with Hubbard’s veteran wrestling sprawl and counter-punching.
• Age & Athleticism Gap: The 9‐year age difference favors Rongzhu’s speed and recovery, while Hubbard brings grit and ring-savvy.

This lightweight showdown pits youthful explosiveness against seasoned resilience. Expect a chess match of feints, sprawls, and power exchanges before one fighter imposes his will.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Zhu “Rongzhu” Rong: –320 (American odds)
• Austin Hubbard: +270

According to BetOnline.ag, Zhu Rong is a clear favorite at –320, while Austin Hubbard sits comfortably as the underdog at +270. The gap of 590 points indicates strong market confidence in the Chinese phenom’s striking power and wrestling mix.

If you wager $1,000 on each fighter:

• Betting $1,000 on Zhu Rong at –320 yields a profit of $312.50 (total payout: $1,312.50).
• Betting $1,000 on Austin Hubbard at +270 yields a profit of $2,700 (total payout: $3,700).

Implied win probabilities (no math shown here) place Rongzhu around a 75–77% chance to win, while Hubbard hovers near 23–25%.

Line Movement and Swings

BetOnline.ag’s odds on Zhu Rong have shifted slightly from –300 (on August 15) to –320 (as of August 16), indicating moderate action backing the favorite. Conversely, Hubbard’s line has moved from +250 to +270, suggesting either limited underdog demand or sportsbooks balancing liability as more bets rolled in on the visiting American.

These 20-cent swings on both sides over 24 hours are relatively modest, confirming that the market has largely settled on Rongzhu as the prohibitive pick. No dramatic line collapse or “steam” on either fighter signals that bettors and sharp action alike are in agreement—favoring the hometown slugger.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• BetOnline.ag currently offers the tightest lines for both fighters, with competitive odds and a reputable history of reliable payouts.
• If you shop around, look for any slight improvements on Zhu Rong’s price above –320 or Hubbard’s underdog value above +270 to maximize potential return.

Underdog Value vs. Favorite Security

• Backing the Favorite (Rongzhu, –320):
  • High implied probability; lower return, but safer hedge for conservative bankroll management.
  • Ideal for bettors prioritizing capital preservation in a hostile away environment.
• Backing the Underdog (Hubbard, +270):
  • Larger payout and rebuilding story appeal; great for moderate-risk bettors seeking a big payoff.
  • If Hubbard’s veteran wrestling and defensive acumen frustrate Rongzhu, you’ll reap significant reward.

Key Takeaway

With small line movements and no glaring swings, the betting consensus firmly endorses Zhu “Rongzhu” Rong as the likely victor. Yet the +270 underdog line on Austin Hubbard offers one of the most lucrative risk-reward scenarios on the entire UFC Fight Night card. Whether you lean toward the favorite’s finishing prowess or the underdog’s tough veteran skin, BetOnline.ag remains the go-to sportsbook for securing these lines.