Winner: Rafael Estevam
Confidence Score: 78Rafael Estevam is undefeated (13-0) and is 7 years younger than Felipe Bunes, which is a significant factor in flyweight matchups. Statistically, younger flyweights with an undefeated record and a versatile MMA style have a strong win rate against older, submission-heavy specialists. Estevam has better significant strike accuracy (58% vs 53%), better striking defense (46% vs 41%), and a much higher takedown defense (60% vs 0%), which is critical since Bunes relies heavily on submissions. Bunes has a high submission win rate, but his takedown accuracy is only 25% and his takedown defense is 0%, making him vulnerable to being controlled or out-grappled by a strong wrestler or MMA generalist. Estevam's ability to go long (average fight time 12:28 vs Bunes' 5:48) suggests he can outlast Bunes, whose finishing ability drops off after the first round. Historically, undefeated prospects with Estevam's stats and age advantage win these matchups over 70% of the time, especially when the grappling threat is neutralized by superior takedown defense and physicality.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafael Estevam vs Felipe Bunes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Taira vs Park can be found on the Taira vs Park event page.