Winner: Tatiana Suarez
Confidence Score: 78Tatiana Suarez has a significant stylistic advantage due to her elite wrestling and grappling, which has historically troubled strikers like Amanda Lemos. Suarez has an 80% takedown defense and a high submission rate (6 wins by sub), while Lemos has only a 59% takedown defense and has recently lost by submission to Virna Jandiroba. Suarez's striking accuracy (62%) is also higher than Lemos (54%), and she absorbs less damage defensively. While Lemos is dangerous early with knockout power (8 KOs, 8 first-round finishes), Suarez's relentless pressure and control tend to break opponents over the course of a fight. Historically, wrestlers in the strawweight division with similar reach, age, and ranking have a high win rate against power punchers with lower takedown defense. Suarez is also four years younger, which is notable in this division. Unless Lemos lands something huge early, Suarez's superior wrestling and grappling should dictate the outcome.
Live odds
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