Winner: Claudio Puelles
Confidence Score: 65Claudio Puelles has a significant age advantage (27 vs 35), is physically longer (height, arm reach, leg reach), and is a submission specialist with 7 submission wins and a 50% significant strike accuracy. While Joaquim Silva has more knockout power and a higher takedown defense, Silva has been stopped by KO/TKO multiple times recently, and his age suggests a decline in durability. Puelles' younger age, reach, and grappling edge—especially against older opponents with declining durability—have resulted in a higher win rate in similar UFC lightweight matchups. Puelles' recent losses have come against elite competition, and he tends to perform well against fighters with Silva's style. The main risk is Puelles' lack of striking threat, but his submission threat and physical advantages make him the more likely winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.