Reese vs Dumas: UFC Fight Analysis & Betting Odds

Zachary Reese vs Sedriques Dumas Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, September 13, 2025, the UFC returns to the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, for UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva. Slated for the preliminary card, the middleweight clash between Zachary Reese and Sedriques Dumas is officially set to begin at 7:00 PM UTC (2:00 PM local CT). Both fighters will look to make a statement in the stacked lineup, but the betting markets have already spoken: Reese enters as a firm favorite, while Dumas plays the role of the underdog.

Event Details

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Lopes vs Silva
• Date: September 13, 2025
• Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX, United States
• Card Position: Preliminary Card
• Scheduled Start Time: 7:00 PM UTC (2:00 PM CT)

Favorite vs. Underdog

Zachary Reese (9–2–0) has rapidly become a name to watch in the 185-pound division. With a UFC debut in December 2023, Reese is riding momentum from his unanimous decision win over Dusko Todorovic in May 2025. Known for his heavy hands—five knockouts already—and elite grappling (58% takedown accuracy), Reese boasts an average fight time of just over six minutes (06:05), underlining his aggressive, finish-first approach.

• FanDuel Odds: –310
• DraftKings Odds: –285
• BetOnline.ag Odds: –275

On the other side, Sedriques Dumas (10–3–0) has proven tough to put away, yet his record reveals vulnerability to early finishes. A seasoned kickboxer with a potent 45% significant strike accuracy, Dumas fights at a measured pace (08:33 avg. fight time) and possesses respectable submission skills (two wins). However, two of his three UFC losses have come via first-round stoppages, and his takedown defense sits at just 40%.

• FanDuel Odds: +230
• DraftKings Odds: +230
• BetOnline.ag Odds: +235

Stakes and Storylines

1. Climbing the Middleweight Ladder
   • Reese aims to extend his streak and stake a claim for top-15 contention.
   • Dumas needs to avoid another early setback to stay in the UFC’s middleweight mix.

2. Styles Make Fights
   • Reese’s wrestling-heavy, pressure style vs.
   • Dumas’ striking-first kickboxing background and counterpunching.

3. Betting Implications
   • A Reese victory reinforces his betting favorite status and could offer little in the way of payout.
   • A Dumas upset (+230) carries significant value for bettors targeting larger returns.

With heavyweight implications on the line—and each fighter armed with contrasting skill sets—this bout promises high drama. Whether you side with the methodical, grappling-strong Reese or the explosively dangerous Dumas, this fight will go a long way toward shaping the middleweight division’s landscape in 2025.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Zachary Reese vs Sedriques Dumas can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Zachary Reese Profile

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded striker-wrestler hybrid (high‐pressure grappling with heavy hands)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs Dusko Todorovic (May 31, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous)
2. Loss vs Azamat Bekoev (Jan 18, 2025) – KO/TKO (Round 1, 3:04)
3. Win vs Jose Daniel Medina (Aug 24, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)
4. Win vs Julian Marquez (Jun 8, 2024) – KO/TKO (Round 1, 0:20)
5. Loss vs Cody Brundage (Dec 2, 2023) – KO/TKO (Round 1, 1:49)

Strengths

• Takedown Prowess: 58% takedown accuracy, 58% takedown defense – Reese’s ability to dictate where the fight goes is elite in the middleweight division.
• Finishing Power: 5 KOs and 7 first-round finishes in a 9–2 career – he closes distance quickly and punishes opponents’ mistakes.
• Strike Accuracy: 54% significant strike accuracy – Reese lands more than half of his power shots, making every entry dangerous.
• Fight IQ: Rapid improvements in cage control and transitions suggest Reese is evolving beyond a pure wrestler into a complete mixed martial artist.

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense: 44% significant strike defense – he has struggled to slip counters, evident in two first-round KO losses.
• Early Vulnerability: Both career defeats came via early stoppage, hinting at occasional lapses in guard or overcommitment.
• Cardio in Long Fights: Though his average fight time is 6:05, his pace can dip in championship rounds; if Dumas drags him into deeper waters, Reese’s output may fade.

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Sedriques Dumas Profile

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Kickboxer with strong counter‐striking and body-kick arsenal

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Loss vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (Apr 12, 2025) – KO/TKO (Round 1, 2:49)
2. Win vs Denis Tiuliulin (Aug 3, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)
3. Loss vs Nursultan Ruziboev (Mar 30, 2024) – KO/TKO (Round 1, 3:18)
4. Win vs Abu Azaitar (Oct 21, 2023) – Decision (Unanimous)
5. Win vs Cody Brundage (Jun 24, 2023) – Decision (Unanimous)

Strengths

• Defensive Footwork: 56% significant strike defense – Dumas excels at evading and countering, making him a tough target.
• Striking Volume & Accuracy: 45% significant strike accuracy – his measured output connects cleanly, especially with kicks to the body and head.
• Durability: Despite three KO losses, he has only been stopped in the first round twice and has shown toughness surviving deep rounds in unanimous-decision wins.
• Versatility: 2 submission victories – under the right circumstances, he can surprise grapplers with solid ground transitions.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense: 40% – Dumas struggles to keep elite wrestlers off him, which could play directly into Reese’s game plan.
• Pace: Average fight time of 8:33 signals a slower start; he often needs a full round to find his range, leaving him open early.
• Finishing Rate: Only 4 first-round finishes in 10 wins – while dangerous, he lacks one-punch knockout power and often relies on decisions when pressure ramps up.

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Tactical Implications

• Reese vs. Dumas Striking: Reese’s 54% accuracy and power contrast with Dumas’ 56% strike defense and counter-style. Reese must cut off the cage to land heavy combinations, while Dumas will look to create angles and keep the fight standing.
• Grapple vs. Kickbox: Reese’s 58% takedown success could neutralize Dumas’ kickboxing if he imposes wrestling early. Dumas will need to circle, maintain distance, and avoid being pressed against the fence.
• Fight Flow: Expect a fast-starts from Reese, hunting takedowns. Dumas must weather that storm in the opening minute, then unleash crisp counters to slow Reese’s pace and potentially turn the tide.

This clash of styles—Reese’s wrestling intensity versus Dumas’ striking craft—will determine whether the favorite asserts dominance or the underdog exploits opportunities in the pocket and backpedal.

Odds Breakdown and Betting History

Current Betting Odds

As of September 1, 2025, the middleweight showdown between Zachary Reese and Sedriques Dumas has opened with a clear favorite and an underdog across major sportsbooks:

• Zachary Reese (Favorite)

• BetOnline.ag: –275
• FanDuel: –310
• DraftKings: –285

• Sedriques Dumas (Underdog)

• BetOnline.ag: +235
• FanDuel: +230
• DraftKings: +230

Reese’s odds reflect strong public confidence in his wrestling-heavy, pressure style, while Dumas’s longer line offers significant upside for bettors seeking an upset.

Line Movement and Historical Trends

• Overall Stability: Since the lines first appeared, there have been no dramatic swings. All three major books—BetOnline.ag, FanDuel, and DraftKings—have maintained consistent odds within a narrow window.
• Slight Tightening on Reese: FanDuel’s move from an early –285 to –310 suggests early sharp money on Reese, but the shift has been modest.
• Underdog Value Holds: Dumas remains firmly in the +230/+235 range, indicating sportsbooks see genuine value for bettors willing to back the kickboxing underdog.

With stable pricing, there’s no sign of last-minute line shifts, implying balanced action on both sides to this point.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Reese backers: BetOnline.ag’s –275 line offers the highest return on the favorite, compared to –310 at FanDuel or –285 at DraftKings.
• For Dumas supporters: Again, BetOnline.ag leads with +235, giving bettors the best underdog payout over the +230 offered elsewhere.

If you’re shopping lines, BetOnline.ag currently provides the most attractive odds for both sides.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

Zachary Reese (–275 at BetOnline.ag)

• Potential Payout: $1,000 wager returns approximately $1,364 (including your stake).
• Implied Win Probability: ~73%

Sedriques Dumas (+235 at BetOnline.ag)

• Potential Payout: $1,000 wager returns approximately $3,350 (including your stake).
• Implied Win Probability: ~30%

While Reese’s implied probability cements him as a strong favorite, Dumas’s line offers more than triple your money on an upset.

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Key Takeaways:

• Reese is the clear betting favorite, with implied win chances hovering in the low-to-mid 70% range.
• Dumas remains a live underdog at roughly a 30% chance, offering substantial return if he can neutralize Reese’s wrestling.
• BetOnline.ag currently has the sharpest lines for both fighters, making it the top choice for line shoppers.
• The relatively flat line movement to date signals market confidence in these opening odds—with no major surprises expected before fight night.