Rendon vs Pereira: UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Montserrat Rendon vs Alice Pereira fight analysis

Event Details

The highly anticipated Women's Bantamweight bout between Montserrat Rendon and promotional newcomer Alice Pereira ignites the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva on Saturday, September 13, 2025. Hosted at the iconic Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, the preliminary slate is slated to begin at 7:00 PM local time, setting the stage for an underdog-versus-favorite showdown that could redefine both fighters’ trajectories in the division.

Matchup Overview

This clash presents a classic contrast in experience and momentum. At 35 years old, Mexican grappling ace Montserrat Rendon (6–1–0 MMA) arrives boasting a perfect 100 percent takedown defense, a respectable 55 percent takedown accuracy, and a well–rounded skill set forged over seven professional fights. Rendon’s lone setback—a unanimous decision loss—came against Daria Zheleznyakova in her most recent outing (March 23, 2024), but she quickly rebounded with a split-decision victory over Tamires Vidal in her UFC debut (September 23, 2023).

Conversely, 19-year-old Alice Pereira makes her promotional debut as an untested but highly touted prospect from the State of Bahia, Brazil. Although Pereira has yet to compile an official record in the Octagon, the oddsmakers at DraftKings have installed her as the favorite at -218, indicating significant confidence in her striking pedigree and athletic upside. Her future coach-driven development and raw power have bettors expecting fireworks from the outset.

Betting Odds: Favorite vs. Underdog

• Alice Pereira: –218 (DraftKings) – The heavy favorite despite zero UFC experience. Public and sharp money favor her youthful explosiveness and presumed striking superiority.
• Montserrat Rendon: +180 (DraftKings) – The designated underdog, relying on veteran savvy, proven wrestling, and submission acumen to pull off a major upset.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Debut Potential: A dominant showing by Pereira could vault her straight into the divisional rankings, marking a rare feat for a fighter with no prior UFC bouts.
2. Redemption Narrative: Rendon seeks to avenge her sole loss and prove her first UFC victory was no fluke—an outcome that would solidify her status as a rising contender.
3. Division Dynamics: With the Women’s Bantamweight landscape in flux, a statement performance here could reshape matchmaking for both athletes, influencing future title eliminators and high-profile opportunities.

As the lights dim and the crowd roars at the Frost Bank Center, all eyes will be on the cage to see if Alice Pereira can validate her short moneyline favorite status or if Montserrat Rendon will impose her veteran will and emerge victorious in this pivotal preliminary-card showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Montserrat Rendon vs Alice Pereira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Montserrat Rendon Profile

Age: 35
Country: Mexico
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) specialist, strong wrestler
UFC Record: 1–1
Overall MMA Record: 6–1–0

Recent Form

• March 23, 2024: Loss via unanimous decision to Daria Zheleznyakova
• September 23, 2023: Win via split decision over Tamires Vidal (UFC debut)
• Pre-UFC run: 5 consecutive wins on the regional circuit, all decisions

Rendon has carried momentum from a flawless 5–0 start into the Octagon, where she split her first two fights. Her debut showcased her grappling pedigree, grinding down a durable opponent over three rounds. Her most recent outing exposed areas for improvement in striking volume and damage, as she struggled to mount significant offense against Zheleznyakova’s counter-striking.

Key Statistics

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 29%
• Significant Strike Defense: 55%
• Takedown Accuracy: 55%
• Takedown Defense: 100%
• Average Fight Time: 15:00 (three-round fights)

Alice Pereira Profile

Age: 19
Country: Brazil (State of Bahia)
Fighting Style: Unspecified, presumed striking base with developing grappling
UFC Record: 0–0 (promotional debut)
Overall MMA Record: 0–0–0 (no professional fights recorded)

Recent Form

• Professional Debut: Scheduled for September 13, 2025
• Amateur/Regional: Details unverified, touted as an explosive striker with knockout potential

Pereira arrives in San Antonio as a complete unknown to the UFC fanbase. Despite lacking an official MMA record, she’s been fast-tracked into a high-visibility bout, suggesting a background rich in kickboxing, Muay Thai or similar striking arts. At just 19, her youth offers tremendous upside but also brings questions about durability, cage IQ, and wrestling instincts against a seasoned grappler like Rendon.

Key Indicators

• Betting Favorite at DraftKings: –218
• Physical Attributes: Data pending (height, reach unreported)
• Intangibles: Youthful speed, power potential, coach-driven development

Strengths and Weaknesses

Montserrat Rendon

Strengths

• Elite takedown defense (100%) frustrates wrestlers and stymies opponents’ offense.
• Grappling control and BJJ background allow her to dictate pace on the mat.
• Cardio and durability proven in five-round regional fights and three-round UFC contests.

Weaknesses

• Striking volume is low (29% accuracy) and lacks one-punch knockout power.
• Offensive wrestling could be more dynamic; relies on counter-takedowns rather than initiating.
• Predictability: opponents may anticipate her grappling entries and employ sprawl-and-brawl tactics.

Alice Pereira

Strengths

• Athletic upside: Youth and presumed striking pedigree promise explosive offense.
• Power potential: Oddsmakers’ confidence (-218 favorite) suggests finishing ability.
• Unknown gameplan: Lack of fight footage may lead to strategic surprises.

Weaknesses

• Inexperience: No recorded professional or UFC bouts—cage rust and composure under fire are untested.
• Grappling gaps: Likely vulnerable to Rendon’s takedown attempts and top-control.
• Unproven cardio: Transitioning from amateur or camp sparring to three-round pace can expose stamina issues.

Both competitors enter this bout with contrasting profiles—Rendon’s seasoned grappling versus Pereira’s raw striking upside—setting up a classic stylistic chess match that will reveal whether veteran savvy or youthful explosiveness will prevail.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As of the latest update, DraftKings lists the betting lines for Montserrat Rendon vs Alice Pereira as follows:

• Alice Pereira: –218 (favorite)
• Montserrat Rendon: +180 (underdog)

This spread highlights a clear edge for Pereira in the eyes of oddsmakers. At –218, Pereira is the established favorite, while Rendon’s +180 line labels her a live underdog with significant upside for backers seeking value.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

DraftKings stands out as the premier sportsbook for this matchup. Their competitive lines, real-time updates, and robust promotions make them the go-to choice for UFC bettors. Both odds—–218 and +180—are most favorable here, ensuring you get maximum value on either side.

Odds History and Line Movement

A review of the odds history shows minimal fluctuation since the lines first opened on August 17, 2025:

• Alice Pereira opened at –218 and remains at –218
• Montserrat Rendon opened at +180 and remains at +180

This stability suggests broad agreement between sharp money and public wagers. With no significant swings or steam moves, sportsbooks have found the correct equilibrium—no early “steam lines” favoring one side over the other, and no sudden news impacting bettor sentiment. If you’re looking for contrarian angles, keep an eye on late-breaking camp reports or weigh-in developments that could prompt a last-minute shift.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

If you’re sizing up a $1,000 wager, here’s what you can expect in returns:

• Bet $1,000 on Alice Pereira (–218)
  • Profit: Approximately $460
  • Total Payout: $1,460

• Bet $1,000 on Montserrat Rendon (+180)
  • Profit: $1,800
  • Total Payout: $2,800

Implied Probability

While we won’t dive into detailed math, the current lines translate to the following approximate chances:

• Alice Pereira: ~68% implied win probability
• Montserrat Rendon: ~36% implied win probability

These figures help you gauge whether the lines reflect true value based on your own assessment of each fighter’s skill set, form, and matchup dynamics.

Value Considerations

• Backing Pereira makes sense if you believe her untested striking arsenal and athleticism will overpower Rendon’s grappling game.
• Backing Rendon offers significant upside for contrarian bettors, given her veteran ground control, perfect takedown defense, and proven cardio. Her +180 line could shift in your favor if early public money stacks on Pereira.

With DraftKings helmet up and lines standing firm, now is the time to decide if you’ll play it safe on the favorite or swing for the fences with the underdog.