Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico UFC 319 Odds & AI Pick

Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Fight Breakdown

Introduction

On Saturday, August 16, 2025, fight fans will descend upon the iconic United Center in Chicago, Illinois, for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev. As part of the Main Card, featherweights Lerone Murphy and Aaron Pico will collide in a pivotal showdown that could redefine the division’s landscape. The bout is slated to air at 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT, immediately following the preliminary action—meaning Murphy and Pico will square off under the bright lights of Chicago in front of a worldwide audience.

This matchup pits a seasoned contender against a heralded newcomer. England’s own Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy (#6 in the UFC featherweight rankings) brings an unblemished professional record of 16–0–1, including seven knockouts and six first-round finishes. At 34 years old, the Manchester native has battled—and convincingly defeated—top-tier opposition such as Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza, showcasing a versatile striking arsenal built on a kickboxing pedigree. With a 54% significant strike accuracy and a knack for late-round endurance (average fight time of nearly 15 minutes), Murphy embodies the archetype of a contemporary, well-rounded featherweight.

Standing across the Octagon is 28-year-old American prospect Aaron Pico, making his official UFC debut after a highly touted amateur wrestling career and a stint in Bellator MMA. Though his UFC record reads 0-0-0, Pico has generated buzz with his explosive wrestling takedowns, dynamic striking, and relentless pace. The Whittier, California native arrives in Chicago as the betting favorite, opening around -155 on major sportsbooks such as FanDuel, Caesars, and BetRivers. In contrast, Murphy enters as the underdog at approximately +124, offering plus-money value to those who believe his experience and tactical striking will prevail.

Beyond mere betting lines, this fight represents a fascinating stylistic clash: Murphy’s technical kickboxing and championship mettle versus Pico’s athleticism and wrestling pedigree. Both men will be looking to make statements—Murphy to solidify his top-five aspirations, and Pico to validate the hype that accompanied his signing. The victor could vault into title contention discussions, while the vanquished may have to recalibrate and rebuild.

In this breakdown, we’ll dissect each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and key statistics; analyze betting odds and line movements; and ultimately provide actionable insights to help you make an informed pick. Whether you’re backing the veteran underdog or riding with the favored phenom, read on to get everything you need ahead of one of the most intriguing featherweight matchups of the year.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Lerone Murphy: The Seasoned Technician

Background

• Age: 34
• Country: England
• Fighting Style: Kickboxing specialist with well-rounded MMA credentials
• UFC Tenure: Debuted Sept. 7, 2019; currently ranked #6 at Featherweight (145 lb)

Recent Form
Over his last five UFC outings, Murphy has been impeccable, showcasing championship-level durability and precision:

1. Win vs. Josh Emmett (Unanimous Decision, UFC 298)
2. Win vs. Dan Ige (Unanimous Decision, UFC Vegas 85)
3. Win vs. Edson Barboza (Unanimous Decision, UFC 300)
4. Win vs. Joshua Culibao (Unanimous Decision, UFC 290)
5. Win vs. Gabriel Santos (Split Decision, UFC 286)

He has gone the distance in four of those five bouts, grinding out victories even when opponents pressured him.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (54%): Murphy lands well over half of his significant strikes, a mark of surgical precision in the pocket.
• Strike Defense (62%): He avoids more than six out of ten incoming significant strikes, showcasing excellent head movement and footwork.
• Power & Finishing Instincts: Seven KO victories and six first-round stoppages on his resume; he can end a fight explosively if you leave openings.
• Takedown Offense (54%) & Defense (52%): More than half of his attempted takedowns succeed, while he defends just over half of his opponent’s trips, making him a two-phase threat.
• Endurance: An average fight time of nearly 15 minutes demonstrates his ability to maintain output into the championship rounds.

Weaknesses

• Lack of Submission Game: Zero career submission wins; opponents with high-level grappling could test his ground defense.
• Decision-Heavy Profile: Four of his last five wins are decisions, suggesting a relative lack of explosive urgency when opponents are durable.
• Age & Wear: At 34 and having fought five five-rounders, Murphy may face a slight gas tank decline against younger, faster foes.

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Aaron Pico: The High-Ceiling Prospect

Background

• Age: 28
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Elite amateur wrestling base complemented by developing boxing and kickboxing
• UFC Status: Debuting Jul. 26, 2025; 0-0-0 UFC record

Recent Form
While Pico has no official UFC bouts yet, his last five professional MMA fights (in Bellator and regional circuits) include:

1. Win over Zach Freeman (TKO – Round 1)
2. Win over Shane Kruchten (KO – Round 2)
3. Win over Bryce Mitchell (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Win over Derek Campos (TKO – Round 1)
5. Win over Joe Warren (Decision – Split)

He has shown both finishing power and the ability to grind through decisions.

Strengths

• Wrestling & Takedowns: Pico’s decorated wrestling pedigree allows him to dictate where the fight takes place, with seamless level changes and relentless pace.
• Explosive Power: Early finishes in four of his last five fights underscore his knockout potential—every punch or takedown could end the contest.
• Athleticism & Speed: Exceptional lateral movement and hand speed give him an edge in scramble situations and in-and-out striking.
• Youth & Upside: At 28 and making his UFC debut, Pico is still ascending, with plenty of room to evolve in a top-tier camp.

Weaknesses

• Inexperience at Elite Level: Despite his amateur dominance, Pico has never faced a ranked featherweight in the UFC octagon; the step up in competition could expose gaps.
• Boxing Defense: Early career flyaway punches and defensive lapses have led to counters; Murphy’s precision striking could punish overzealous entries.
• Cardio Under Duress: In longer fights, his pace has dipped; extended wrestling exchanges or drawn-out striking battles may challenge his gas tank.
• Ground Game Nuances: While explosive, his submission transitions remain raw—veterans with solid jiu-jitsu could stifle his top control.

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This clash bridges Murphy’s battle-tested precision against Pico’s raw explosiveness. Understanding each man’s profile, form, and stylistic edges will be vital for bettors and fans alike as they prepare for this defining Featherweight showdown.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of August 4, 2025, the consensus moneyline across major sportsbooks stands as follows:

• Aaron Pico (Favorite)

  • FanDuel: -158
  • Caesars: -155
  • BetRivers: -155
  • BetOnline.ag: -150

• Lerone Murphy (Underdog)

  • FanDuel: +124
  • Caesars: +130
  • BetRivers: +120
  • BetOnline.ag: +130

Key Takeaways:

• Favorite vs. Underdog: Aaron Pico is firmly installed as the favorite, with prices hovering around -155. Lerone Murphy is the underdog, priced between +120 and +130.
• Best Sportsbook to Back the Favorite: If you believe Pico will win, BetOnline.ag’s -150 offers the softest line (lowest negative juice).
• Best Sportsbook to Back the Underdog: If you’re siding with Murphy, Caesars or BetOnline.ag at +130 delivers the biggest payday.

Line Movement & Market Sentiment

Examining the past week of line shifts tells a clear story of where the sharp money has gone:

• Caesars (Aug. 2 – Aug. 4):

  • Pico: Opened at -125, moved to -135 within 24 hours, then settled at -155.
  • Murphy: Began at +105, climbed steadily through +115 and +125, peaking at +130.

• BetOnline.ag (Jul. 31 – Aug. 4):

  • Pico: Fluctuated from -120 → -135 → -160 before retracting slightly to -150.
  • Murphy: Swung from +100 up to +140, then back to +130.

Insight: Early support for the underdog (Murphy) gave way to a torrent of bets on Pico. As sharper action poured in on Pico, sportsbooks adjusted the favorite’s price down (more negative) while inflating Murphy’s underdog number. This dynamic suggests bettors respect Pico’s upside and are wary of risking a dog who can vanish you with a head kick.

Implied Probabilities & Hypothetical Payouts

Based on the current moneylines, the implied win probabilities are roughly:

• Aaron Pico (-155): ~61% chance to win
• Lerone Murphy (+124): ~45% chance to win

(Probabilities won’t add to 100% due to sportsbook vig.)

If you wager $1,000…

• On Aaron Pico at -155:

  • Profit: $645
  • Total Return: $1,645

• On Lerone Murphy at +124:

  • Profit: $1,240
  • Total Return: $2,240

(Note: If you grab Murphy at +130 instead, your profit would be $1,300 for a $2,300 return.)

What This Means for Your Bet

• Backing the Favorite: You’re paying juice to align with the prospect of explosive wrestling and athletic upside. The smoother vig at BetOnline.ag (-150) offers marginally better value on Pico.
• Backing the Underdog: Murphy’s precision striking and veteran savvy make +130 a juicy target—especially if you believe Pico’s cardio or defensive gaps could be exposed over three rounds.

Ultimately, your choice boils down to risk tolerance and belief in styles. If you want the safe side, lock in Pico at BetOnline.ag. If you crave paid lines and upside, snag Murphy at +130 on Caesars or BetOnline.ag.