Winner: Carlos Ulberg
Confidence Score: 66Carlos Ulberg is on a strong run with a 13-1 record, an impressive 55% significant strike accuracy, and an 86% takedown defense. He has shown consistent improvement and fight IQ, finishing 6 fights in the first round and demonstrating both knockout power and submission ability. While Dominick Reyes has revived his career with three recent KO/TKO wins, his defense remains a concern (50% sig strike defense) and he has been knocked out multiple times in the past two years. Both fighters are nearly identical in age, size, reach, and style (kickboxing), but Ulberg’s higher takedown accuracy (60% vs 29%) and slightly better defensive metrics give him the edge. Historically, fighters with Ulberg's profile—top-three ranked, high striking accuracy, and excellent takedown defense—win the majority of similar matchups. Reyes is dangerous early, but Ulberg is more consistent, more defensively sound, and less battle-worn.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.