Winner: Luana Carolina
Confidence Score: 78Luana Carolina is the clear pick due to her significant UFC experience, proven track record, and well-rounded Muay Thai skillset. She holds an 11-4 record with recent wins over solid competition, including a KO/TKO of Julija Stoliarenko and a decision over Ivana Petrovic. Her striking metrics are strong (51% accuracy and defense), and her takedown defense is an impressive 74%, which is critical against grapplers. She is also physically long for the division, with a 69-inch reach. In contrast, Michelle Montague is making her UFC debut with no recorded UFC stats, and there is no evidence of her performing at this level against top-15 opposition. Historically, debuting fighters with no UFC experience have a low win rate against ranked, established opponents, especially when the established fighter is on a winning streak. Unless Montague is an elite prospect with a world-class grappling pedigree (which is not indicated in the available data), the odds are heavily in Carolina's favor.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.