UFC: Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina Odds & AI Pick

Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina Fight Analysis

Get ready for an electrifying Welterweight showdown on Saturday, August 9, 2025, as Uros Medic squares off against Gilbert Urbina on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez. The action kicks off at 8:00 PM ET inside the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, and this bout promises fireworks from the opening bell.

The Favorite
Serbian powerhouse Uros Medic enters this contest as the clear betting favorite, sitting at -300 on the moneyline (BetMGM, BetOnline.ag). Boasting a professional record of 10-3-0, Medic has become known for his devastating striking, surrendering only two submission losses in his UFC tenure while compiling 8 knockouts and 7 first-round finishes. At 31 years old, the 6'1" welterweight leverages an impressive 61% significant strike accuracy and solid 56% takedown defense, making him a daunting presence both on the feet and in grappling exchanges. Medic’s last outing saw him suffer a shocking 31-second TKO loss to Punahele Soriano in January 2025, but he rebounded with a flurry of finishes in 2024 and 2023, including a highlight-reel KO over Tim Means.

The Underdog
On the opposite corner stands American contender Gilbert Urbina, priced at +240 with BetMGM and +250 at BetOnline.ag. The 27-year-old University of Iowa alumnus holds a record of 7-4-0, featuring a balanced résumé of 2 knockouts, 2 submissions, and 2 first-round finishes. Though Urbina’s 44% takedown accuracy and 57% striking accuracy showcase his well-rounded skill set, his 0% takedown defense reveals a potential vulnerability against elite wrestlers. Urbina’s most recent performance ended in a first-round KO loss to Charles Radtke at UFC 298, but he made waves with a second-round knockout over Orion Cosce just last year.

Why This Fight Matters
Both fighters are hungry for a rebound and a place on the main card. A victory for Medic would reaffirm his status as a top-five Welterweight threat and set him back on track for a potential top-15 ranking. Urbina, meanwhile, needs a signature win to vault himself into the conversation and shake off back-to-back stoppage defeats. The stylistic clash—Medic’s power-punching and takedown defense versus Urbina’s relentless pace and grappling instincts—creates a compelling chess match that could end explosively in any round.

As the UFC community tunes in, the question on everyone’s mind is simple: Can Urbina overcome the odds and secure a monumental upset, or will Medic’s championship-level striking steer him to another highlight-reel finish? Stay locked in for what promises to be one of the most intriguing Welterweight matchups of the summer.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dolidze vs Hernandez can be found on the Dolidze vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Uros Medic Profile

Age & Background

• Age: 31
• Country: Serbia (Novi Sad)
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA striker with solid defensive wrestling
• Physical Attributes: 6'1" (73″), 171 lb, 71″ reach

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Loss vs Punahele Soriano – KO/TKO (R1, 0:31) – UFC Vegas 76 (Jan. 11, 2025)
2. Win vs Tim Means – KO/TKO (R1, 2:09) – UFC Vegas 92 (Apr. 27, 2024)
3. Loss vs Myktybek Orolbai – Submission (R2, 4:12) – UFC Vegas 82 (Nov. 18, 2023)
4. Win vs Matthew Semelsberger – KO/TKO (R3, 2:36) – UFC Vegas 79 (Jul. 29, 2023)
5. Win vs Omar Morales – KO/TKO (R2, 3:05) – UFC 274 (May 21, 2022)

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 8 of 10 career wins by KO/TKO; excels in one-punch finishes.
• First-Round Finisher: 7 first-round stoppages; overwhelming early aggression.
• Striking Accuracy (61%): Lands more than 6 of every 10 significant strikes attempted.
• Significant Strike Defense (56%): Effectively avoids and blocks over half of incoming power shots.
• Takedown Defense (56%): Capable of keeping the fight standing; neutralizes wrestler-heavy game plans.
• Avg Fight Time (05:03): Short, explosive contests favor his high-pressure style.

Weaknesses

• Early Vulnerability: The 31-second KO loss to Soriano exposed lapses in defensive awareness on the opening bell.
• Takedown Offense (50%): Decent but not elite; may struggle to impose his will on elite grapplers.
• Submission Defense: Two career submission losses suggest potential gaps if taken down and pressed.

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Gilbert Urbina Profile

Age & Background

• Age: 27
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Balanced striker-wrestler with submission capabilities
• Physical Attributes: 5'9″ (69″), 187 lb, 75″ reach

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Loss vs Charles Radtke – KO/TKO (R1, 4:47) – UFC 298 (Feb. 3, 2024)
2. Win vs Orion Cosce – KO/TKO (R2, 2:55) – UFC Vegas 73 (May 20, 2023)
3. Loss vs Bryan Battle – Submission (R2, 2:15) – UFC Vegas 35 (Aug. 28, 2021)
4. (Early UFC debut) — Win on regional scene
5. (Early UFC debut) — Win on regional scene

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (57%): Consistently lands over half of his significant strikes, showing precision.
• Submission Finishes: 2 submission victories; dangerous on the ground when he initiates grappling.
• Takedown Offense (44%): Willing to mix wrestling to change levels and set up striking.
• Versatility: Balanced damage distribution — 2 KOs, 2 subs, demonstrating adaptability.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (0%): Has not recorded a takedown defense in UFC fights; ripe for wrestler pressure.
• Significant Strike Defense (45%): Leaves himself open to heavy counters and clean shots.
• Average Fight Time (06:39): Longer fights suggest he struggles to close out or maintain pace.

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Comparative Analysis

• Power vs. Durability: Medic’s elite KO rate clashes with Urbina’s middling strike defense—Medic can dictate range, but Urbina’s chin and heart will be tested.
• Wrestling Exchanges: Medic’s 56% takedown defense should neutralize Urbina’s 44% takedown success, tilting the ground battle in Medic’s favor.
• Cardio & Pace: Urbina tends to stretch fights into later rounds, whereas Medic hunts early finishes; conditioning could decide championship rounds.
• Stylistic Edge: Medic’s superior accuracy and defense make him the technical favorite, but Urbina’s scrappy all-around game and submission threats add unpredictability.

This stylistic clash—Medic’s knockout prowess and defensive wrestling versus Urbina’s balanced arsenal and grappling instincts—sets the stage for a dynamic, high-stakes welterweight duel.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Moneyline Odds

• Uros Medic (-300)
  • BetMGM: -300
  • BetOnline.ag: -300
• Gilbert Urbina (+240 / +250)
  • BetMGM: +240
  • BetOnline.ag: +250

As it stands, Uros Medic is the heavy favorite to win this Welterweight bout, with both major sportsbooks listing him at -300. Gilbert Urbina is the clear underdog, sitting at +240 on BetMGM and a slightly more attractive +250 on BetOnline.ag. The current gap of 550 points between the favorite and underdog underscores Medic’s edge in power, defense, and overall profile, while Urbina offers the higher-risk, higher-reward proposition.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• Underdog Value: BetOnline.ag’s +250 on Gilbert Urbina provides the single best upside for underdog bettors.
• Favorite Stability: Both BetMGM and BetOnline.ag match at -300 for Uros Medic, so prize-seekers can choose either for consistent favorite pricing.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the recent line shifts reveals growing confidence in Medic and increased skepticism around Urbina:

• Uros Medic’s Line Drift:

  • BetMGM moved from -225 (July 31) to -300 (August 1).
  • BetOnline.ag tracked a similar shift from -210 to -300.
    This 75–90-point shift in under 48 hours suggests sharp money backing Medic, possibly driven by insider action or late-breaking insights on his training camp and game plan.

• Gilbert Urbina’s Line Shift:

  • BetMGM increased from +185 to +240 in the same window.
  • BetOnline.ag floated from +180 to +250.
    The underdog line moving from +180 into the +240/+250 range indicates public money fading Urbina, perhaps due to concerns over his takedown defense and recent knockout losses.

Overall, both lines have moved aggressively in favor of Medic, making this one of the sharper swings seen on a preliminary-card fight in recent memory.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you’re considering a $1,000 wager:

• On Uros Medic at -300

  • Profit: $333
  • Total Payout: $1,333
  • Implied Probability: Roughly 75% chance to win

• On Gilbert Urbina at +250 (BetOnline.ag)

  • Profit: $2,500
  • Total Payout: $3,500
  • Implied Probability: Roughly 29% chance to win

Key Takeaways

• Medic’s Line Strength: A steady stream of money on Medic has driven his price from -225 to -300, solidifying him as the safe play.
• Urbina’s Upside: Urbina’s line spike to +250 delivers serious profit potential, but comes with lower win expectancy.
• Shop Around: For the best underdog payout, lock in +250 at BetOnline.ag; for favorite bettors, both BetMGM and BetOnline.ag deliver the same -300.
• Timing Matters: Early bettors on Medic enjoyed firmer lines; late money has only widened the gap. Conversely, late underdog backers will need to pay up for Urbina’s now-elevated price.

Whether you favor the dominant striker/wrestler in Medic or the high-upside, well-rounded game of Urbina, understanding these line movements and choosing your sportsbook wisely can make all the difference in your UFC betting strategy.