Winner: Maheshate
Confidence Score: 61Maheshate holds a slight edge in this matchup due to his physical advantages (height, reach, and notably larger leg reach), as well as proven UFC experience since 2022. While his striking accuracy is low (29%), his defensive metrics are better than Young's: 54% significant strike defense versus Young's 45%. Both fighters have poor wrestling stats, but Maheshate's longer UFC tenure and ability to survive at a higher level give him an edge. Gauge Young is more aggressive and accurate offensively (49% sig strike accuracy, 6 KOs in 9 wins), but his defense is a liability and he is untested at the UFC level, having lost his debut. Historically, fighters with Maheshate's physical profile and experience have a better win rate in similar lightweight matchups. While Young is dangerous early, Maheshate's ability to go deeper into fights (shorter average fight time for Young suggests he may fade) and his reach should allow him to control the range and edge out a decision or late finish.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Maheshate vs Gauge Young can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Walker vs Zhang can be found on the Walker vs Zhang event page.