Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters fight breakdown

Introduction

The Welterweight clash between Sam Patterson and Trey Waters is set to kick off the preliminary card at UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho on Saturday, September 6, 2025, at the iconic Accor Arena in Paris, France. The bout is scheduled to begin at approximately 4:00 PM UTC, with the preliminaries streaming live on UFC Fight Pass and select regional broadcasters. As anticipation builds for this high-stakes showdown, bettors and fight fans alike will be closely watching the odds, with Sam Patterson entering as the clear favorite and Trey Waters positioned as the underdog poised to pull off an upset on European soil.

Patterson (13-2-1) has been impressive since making his UFC debut in March 2023. The England native boasts a lethal first-round finishing rate, having sealed seven of his wins before the final bell—five by submission and two by TKO. His average fight time of 3:43 speaks volumes about his aggressive approach and finishing instincts. From his 100% takedown accuracy to his diverse skill set, Patterson has displayed a well-rounded game that has given opponents fits. On the feet, he lands 41% significant strikes and defends 49% of those he absorbs, while on the mat he boasts a takedown defense of 33%. His recent KO/TKO victory over Danny Barlow in March 2025 only reinforced his status as one of the most dangerous prospects in the welterweight division.

On the other side of the Octagon, Trey Waters (9-1-0) looks to continue his undefeated rise through the UFC ranks. The Jacksonville, Florida product showcased his striking pedigree in unanimous decision victories over Josh Quinlan and Billy Goff, displaying crisp stand-up and solid takedown defense. Waters lands 44% of his significant strikes and defends 57%, while his 33% takedown accuracy and 86% takedown defense highlight his wrestling foundation. Despite never securing a finish in the UFC, Waters has proven to be a durable, strategic fighter capable of dictating distance and pace over three full rounds.

Betting Outlook

As of August 25, 2025, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, BetMGM, BetUS, and BetRivers list Sam Patterson between -175 and -205 on the moneyline, making him the solid favorite in this matchup. In contrast, Trey Waters is priced between +146 and +170, marking him as the underdog. The odds reflect Patterson’s finishing prowess and dominant takedown game, while Waters’ value lies in his unbeaten UFC record and ability to outpoint opponents. Bettors looking for value might consider Waters to live with Patterson through the championship rounds, whereas those expecting early fireworks will lean toward Patterson’s finishing upside.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Matchup and Individual Fighter Profiles

Sam Patterson: The English Finisher

Background

• Age: 28
• Country: England (Watford)
• Fighting Style: Mixed Martial Arts (Well-Rounded Grappler)
• Height: 6’3″ (75″), Reach: 6’6″ (78″ arm reach, 43″ leg reach)

Recent Form (Last 4 UFC Fights)

1. Win vs. Danny Barlow – KO/TKO, Round 1 (3:10) – UFC Fight Night, Mar. 1, 2025
2. Win vs. Kiefer Crosbie – Submission, Round 1 (2:50) – UFC Fight Night, Jul. 27, 2024
3. Win vs. Yohan Lainesse – Submission, Round 1 (2:03) – UFC 2025, Jan. 20, 2024
4. Loss vs. Yanal Ashmouz – KO/TKO, Round 1 (1:15) – UFC Debut, Mar. 18, 2023

Statistical Profile

• Record: 13-2-1
• Wins by KO/TKO: 5
• Wins by Submission: 7
• First-Round Finishes: 7
• Average Fight Time: 3:43
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 41%
• Significant Strike Defense: 49%
• Takedown Accuracy: 100%
• Takedown Defense: 33%

Strengths

• Elite Grappling & Finishing: Perfect takedown success rate and seven first-round finishes showcase a relentless ground assault.
• High Submission IQ: Seven submission victories signal slick transitions and a dangerous guard.
• Fast Starters: An average fight time under four minutes suggests Patterson overwhelms opponents early.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense Vulnerabilities: Defends just 49% of incoming significant strikes, leaving him open to counters.
• Susceptible to Takedowns: A 33% takedown defense indicates trouble stopping elite wrestlers when he’s on the back foot.
• Endurance Question Marks: Limited data beyond the opening rounds; he’s rarely tested in championship rounds.

---

Trey Waters: The American Striker

Background

• Age: 28
• Country: United States (Jacksonville, FL)
• Fighting Style: Striker with Wrestling Foundation
• Height: 6’5″ (77″), Reach: 6’5″ (77″ arm reach, 45″ leg reach)

Recent Form (Last 2 UFC Fights, Plus Overall Win Streak)

1. Win vs. Billy Goff – Decision (Unanimous), 3 Rounds – UFC Fight Night, May 11, 2024
2. Win vs. Josh Quinlan – Decision (Unanimous), 3 Rounds – UFC Debut, Apr. 29, 2023
   3–5. Pre-UFC: Three consecutive wins (mix of KOs and submissions) to build a 9-1 overall record

Statistical Profile

• Record: 9-1-0
• Wins by KO/TKO: 3
• Wins by Submission: 3
• First-Round Finishes: 0 (UFC)
• Average Fight Time: 11:24
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 44%
• Significant Strike Defense: 57%
• Takedown Accuracy: 33%
• Takedown Defense: 86%

Strengths

• Striking Precision & Volume: Lands 44% of significant strikes while maintaining distance.
• Defensive Prowess: Boasts a 57% strike defense and elite 86% takedown defense, making him difficult to hurt or take down.
• Cardio & Durability: With an average fight time well beyond two rounds, Waters has proven he can maintain pace into late rounds.

Weaknesses

• Lack of UFC Finishes: Two decision wins suggest a potential inability to close rounds against higher-caliber opponents.
• Moderate Takedown Offense: A 33% success rate shows he can be stuffed by a strong wrestler like Patterson.
• Pressure Handling: Less accustomed to relentless top-control grappling; opponents have tested him on the mat.

---

Head-to-Head Outlook

This stylistic contrast—Patterson’s high-octane grappling assault vs. Waters’ technical striking and defense—will dictate the fight’s flow. Patterson will aim to shoot early, overwhelm with submissions or ground-and-pound, and keep the contest inside the distance. Waters must leverage his jab, movement, and takedown defense to accumulate points and drag the fight into the championship rounds, where his endurance and striking volume become significant assets.

Odds, Line Movement, and Betting Payouts

Current Betting Odds

As of August 25, 2025, the moneyline for Sam Patterson vs. Trey Waters sits at:

• Sam Patterson (Favorite): ranges from -175 (BetOnline.ag, BetUS) to -205 (DraftKings, BetRivers)
• Trey Waters (Underdog): ranges from +146 (BetUS) to +170 (DraftKings)

Sam Patterson’s status as a solid favorite is clear: you must risk $175–$205 to win $100 on him. In contrast, Trey Waters offers a bigger payday, returning $146–$170 profit on a $100 risk.

Best Sportsbooks to Target

• For backing Patterson, the top lines are -175 at BetOnline.ag and BetUS.
• For maximum value on Waters, DraftKings’ +170 stands out just above Caesars (+150) and BetMGM (+155).

Line Movement Trends

A look at the opening lines and ensuing swings reveals shifting bettor sentiment:

Sam Patterson (BetOnline.ag)

• Opened at -175 on Aug. 21
• Drifted to -200, then peaked at -220
• Gradually settled back to -175 by Aug. 25

Trey Waters (BetOnline.ag)

• Debuted at +150 on Aug. 21
• Jumped to +185 amid early underdog buzz
• Pulled back to +150 as smart money aligned

Across sportsbooks like Caesars and BetMGM, both fighters saw movements of roughly 20–30 cents in the market. Patterson’s line softened after weight-ins and press conferences, while Waters briefly spiked when rumors circulated about Patterson nursing a minor injury. Ultimately, the market has stabilized: Patterson regained favorite status at around -185 to -175, Waters resting near +150 to +155.

Betting Payouts on a $1,000 Wager

If you put down $1,000 at the best available lines, here’s what you’d pocket on a winning ticket:

• Backing Sam Patterson at -175 (BetOnline.ag or BetUS):
  • Profit = $1,000 × (100 / 175) ≈ $571.43
  • Total Return = $1,571.43

• Backing Trey Waters at +170 (DraftKings):
  • Profit = $1,000 × 1.70 = $1,700
  • Total Return = $2,700

Implied Probabilities

While sportsbooks factor in their vig, the current lines imply roughly:

• Sam Patterson: ~64% chance to win
• Trey Waters: ~37% chance to win

These probabilities underscore Patterson’s edge on paper, but Waters’ odds reflect a tantalizing upset potential. Bettors seeking safer returns may side with Patterson at -175, whereas value hunters eyeing explosive payouts will gravitate toward Waters at +170.