Winner: Jimmy Crute
Confidence Score: 70Jimmy Crute has a more well-rounded MMA skill set compared to Ivan Erslan, with a significant edge in grappling and takedown effectiveness. Crute's takedown accuracy (52%) and submission wins (5) indicate he can change levels and threaten on the ground, whereas Erslan's takedown defense (65%) and low takedown accuracy (20%) suggest vulnerability against strong wrestlers. Crute also has a higher significant strike accuracy (52% vs 44%) and a longer arm and leg reach, which can help in both striking and grappling exchanges. Erslan is primarily a boxer with notable KO power, but his recent UFC performances have been decision losses, and his finishing rate drops against higher-level opposition. Fighters in the UFC with similar profiles to Crute (younger, longer reach, MMA base, strong grappling) have historically fared well against older, boxing-centric opponents with lower takedown defense. Crute's experience against elite competition, ability to finish early, and diversified attack make him the most likely winner, though his own recent form and defensive striking are slight concerns, keeping the confidence below 80.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.