Gutierrez vs Basharat UFC 320 Odds & Analysis

Chris Gutierrez vs Farid Basharat Fight Analysis

Event Overview

On Sunday, October 5, 2025, two bantamweight contenders will square off on the Preliminary Card of UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This pivotal matchup pits the undefeated newcomer Farid Basharat (13-0-0) against the seasoned veteran Chris Gutierrez (22-5-2). As fight night approaches, oddsmakers have installed Basharat as the heavy favorite, while Gutierrez enters as the underdog with plenty to prove.

Setting the Stage

• Date & Time: October 5, 2025, preliminaries (approx. 7:00 PM PT)
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Weight Class: Bantamweight (up to 135 lb)
• Fight Order: Preliminary Card bout, likely to open viewers’ screens

The Favorite: Farid Basharat

Standing at 5’8” with a 71” reach and competing at just 137 lb, Basharat has stormed through his first 13 professional outings without tasting defeat. His MMA toolkit leans heavily on elite grappling—boasting a 45% takedown accuracy and an impressive 80% takedown defense—and a balanced striking arsenal that connects on 55% of his significant strikes while defending 60% of opponents’ attacks. With 6 submission victories and 3 first-round finishes, Basharat has proven he can both grind out decisions and capitalize instantly when openings arise. At 28, the Afghan-born prospect has quickly risen through the UFC ranks since debuting on March 4, 2023, and is now a prohibitive -360 favorite at leading sportsbooks like FanDuel and BetRivers.

The Underdog: Chris Gutierrez

In contrast, Gutierrez brings a wealth of experience to the cage. At age 34, the Jersey City native has shared the octagon with top bantamweights since his 2018 debut. His record of 22-5-2 features 9 knockouts and a reputation for durable, high-volume striking—landing 59% of significant strikes and defending 63%. Although his 25% takedown accuracy lags behind Basharat’s, Gutierrez’s wrestling background and 70% takedown defense allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. Despite recent setbacks against elite names like Song Yadong and Pedro Munhoz, he returned to the win column in April 2025 with a split decision over John Castaneda. Currently a +260 underdog on FanDuel (and up to +275 at BetOnline.ag), Gutierrez will look to leverage his experience and cardio to weather early storms and drag this into deep waters.

Why This Bout Matters

This clash represents a classic stylistic and generational duel. Will Basharat’s undefeated momentum and submission prowess overwhelm Gutierrez’s veteran savvy and striking acumen? Or can the underdog exploit gaps in the younger fighter’s game plan, turning this into a methodical war of attrition? With title-shot implications always lurking in the stacked bantamweight division, both men have everything to fight for—and nothing to lose.

Stay tuned as we break down their strengths, weaknesses, and key betting angles in the full Chris Gutierrez vs Farid Basharat breakdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Chris Gutierrez vs Farid Basharat can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 can be found on the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Farid Basharat – The Undefeated Grappler

Age: 28
Country: Afghanistan (born in Paktia)
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with elite grappling foundations
Physicals: 5’8” (68”) height, 71” reach, 137 lb fight weight

Recent Form (13-0-0, UFC 4-0)

• Oct. 2024: Def. Victor Hugo – Decision (Unanimous)
• Jan. 2024: Def. Taylor Lapilus – Decision (Unanimous)
• Sep. 2023: Def. Kleidison Rodrigues – Submission (R1, 4:15)
• Mar. 2023: Def. Damon Blackshear – Decision (Unanimous)

Basharat has yet to taste defeat in 13 pro outings and is riding a four-fight UFC streak. He’s alternated between grinding unanimous decisions and quick submissions, showcasing both cardio and finishing instincts.

Strengths

• Grappling Prowess: 45% takedown accuracy combined with an elite 80% takedown defense makes him extremely difficult to control on the ground.
• Submission Threat: Six career submission wins, three in the first round, highlight his ability to impose a relentless ground game.
• Balanced Striking: Lands 55% of his significant strikes while defending 60% of incoming shots—a solid striking base to set up his takedowns.
• Youth & Momentum: At 28, he is in his physical prime and continues to improve with each UFC appearance.

Weaknesses

• Limited Knockout Power: Only one KO win suggests his stand-up may lack the finishing explosiveness to keep pure strikers honest.
• Moderate Strike Volume: A 55% accuracy is good, but without overwhelming volume or power, he risks being out-struck by heavy hitters.
• Experience Gap: Four UFC fights is impressive, yet his biggest tests still lie ahead against seasoned veterans.

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Chris Gutierrez – The Veteran Boxer-Wrestler

Age: 34
Country: United States (Jersey City, NJ)
Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestling base augmented by heavy hands
Physicals: 5’9” (69”) height, 67” reach, 146 lb fight weight

Recent Form (22-5-2, UFC 13-5-1)

• Apr. 2025: Def. John Castaneda – Decision (Split)
• Aug. 2024: Loss to Quang Le – Decision (Unanimous)*
• Dec. 2023: Loss to Song Yadong – Decision (Unanimous)
• Oct. 2023: Def. Heili Alateng – Decision (Unanimous)
• Apr. 2023: Loss to Pedro Munhoz – Decision (Unanimous)

Gutierrez has gone 2-3 in his last five, alternating wins and losses against top-15 bantamweights. His veteran savvy is clear, but consistency remains a challenge.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy & Defense: Lands 59% of significant strikes and defends 63%, giving him an edge in stand-up exchanges.
• Knockout Power: Nine career KOs indicate legitimate one-punch finishing ability when he lands clean.
• Fight IQ & Durability: Over 30 UFC rounds showcase his ability to make mid-fight adjustments and absorb punishment.
• Wrestling Base: While his 25% takedown accuracy is modest, a 70% takedown defense helps him keep fights where he wants them.

Weaknesses

• Age & Pace: At 34, his gas tank can wane in deep waters, and his 13:27 average fight time hints at slower output.
• Takedown Offense: A sub-30% accuracy means he often struggles to impose wrestling when needed.
• Reach Disadvantage: With a 67” reach versus Basharat’s 71”, he may have trouble closing distance against the younger fighter’s jabs.
• Inconsistency: Alternating wins and losses against top contenders suggest vulnerability under pressure.

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This stylistic and generational clash pits Basharat’s undefeated grappling reign against Gutierrez’s veteran striking and power. The tale of the tape favors the younger Afghan phenom—but the seasoned American remains battle-tested and dangerous in every phase of the fight.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of September 22, 2025, the moneyline across major sportsbooks heavily favors Farid Basharat, with Chris Gutierrez firmly installed as the underdog:

• Farid Basharat

  • FanDuel: –360
  • BetRivers: –360
  • BetOnline.ag: –325

• Chris Gutierrez

  • FanDuel: +260
  • BetRivers: +270
  • BetOnline.ag: +275

The gap between –360 and +275 underscores a clear edge for Basharat, but savvy bettors will note that BetOnline.ag currently offers the best prices on both sides: a milder –325 on Basharat (maximizing your potential return on a favorite) and a robust +275 on Gutierrez (enhancing value for an underdog wager).

Historical Line Movement

A look at the odds history reveals significant swings—evidence of early money pouring in on the younger, undefeated prospect and sporadic backing of the veteran Gutierrez:

• BetOnline.ag (Basharat)
  • Sept. 16: –451 → by midday –300 → Sept. 22 –325

  • A colossal 151-point shift in under 24 hours, then a slight regression, hints at heavy action on Gutierrez driving the line back toward the middle.

• BetRivers (Basharat)
  • Sept. 20: –385 → Sept. 22: –360

  • A 25-point drift toward the underdog as well, reinforcing the narrative of value seekers on Gutierrez.

• BetOnline.ag (Gutierrez)
  • Sept. 16: +351 → by midday +250 → Sept. 22 +275

  • Gutierrez flirted with a massive long shot before settling into the mid-+200s, showing intermittent support from contrarian bettors.

• BetRivers (Gutierrez)
  • Sept. 20: +295 → Sept. 22: +270

This volatility demonstrates that even in a clear favorite-underdog matchup, smart money can and does shift the market––especially when a seasoned veteran like Gutierrez draws late wagers.

Implied Chances & $1,000 Payout Examples

While exact percentages vary slightly by book, the consensus is that Basharat carries roughly a 75–78% chance of victory, whereas Gutierrez sits just above a 25–28% win probability. Here’s what a $1,000 wager would return at the sharp lines on BetOnline.ag:

• Bet on Farid Basharat (–325)
  • Wager: $1,000
  • Profit: $307.69
  • Total Payout: $1,307.69

• Bet on Chris Gutierrez (+275)
  • Wager: $1,000
  • Profit: $2,750
  • Total Payout: $3,750

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

Given the current market, BetOnline.ag stands out as the optimal choice for this fight. It offers the most bettor-friendly lines on both the heavy favorite and the underdog, ensuring maximum upside whether you back the undefeated phenom or root for the scrappy veteran upset.