Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos UFC 320 Odds & Analysis

Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos Fight Analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated women’s bantamweight clash between Macy Chiasson and Yana Santos is set to ignite the Octagon on October 4, 2025. This bout takes place on the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 at the renowned T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The preliminary action kicks off at 6:00 PM ET, and this contest is expected to hit the Octagon at approximately 7:15 PM ET, streaming live on ESPN+. Fans in the Pacific time zone can tune in starting at 3:00 PM PT, with the Chiasson vs Santos showdown slated for around 4:15 PM PT.

This matchup features two top-10 contenders in the division. On the red corner, Macy Chiasson enters with a 11-4-0 professional record and sits at #5 in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight rankings. Standing at 71 inches tall with a 72-inch arm reach, Chiasson brings a versatile MMA skill set—boasting 4 knockouts and 3 submissions among her 11 victories. In the blue corner, Yana Santos carries a 16-8-0 record and is ranked #10 in the Women’s Bantamweight division. The Russian veteran stands 66 inches tall with a 68.5-inch reach, and she has finished 7 of her opponents by knockout. Both fighters are well-rounded, but their contrasting strengths and recent form hint at an intriguing stylistic battle.

From a betting perspective, Macy Chiasson has been installed as the clear favorite, with American odds sitting around –250 on major books like FanDuel and BetRivers. Chiasson’s powerful striking and improving submission game have impressed oddsmakers, especially after her quick finishes of Mayra Bueno Silva and Pannie Kianzad in 2024. Meanwhile, Yana Santos has been tagged as the underdog, with her price hovering between +180 and +190. Santos has rebounded from back-to-back losses to Karol Rosa and Holly Holm by securing consecutive unanimous decision wins over Chelsea Chandler and Miesha Tate. Her ability to mix slick striking with underrated wrestling and cardio makes her a live dog, despite the catch-weight she concedes in height and reach.

As both athletes prepare to make their mark on the preliminary stage, the stakes are high: a dominant win could catapult Chiasson into title contention, while an upset victory for Santos would dramatically shake up the 135-pound pecking order. Below, we’ll break down each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, recent form, and tactical keys to victory for this pivotal bantamweight bout. Stay tuned for our full in-depth analysis—whether you’re betting on the favorite’s power and size or banking on the underdog’s momentum and versatility, this fight promises fireworks under the bright lights of Las Vegas.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 can be found on the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

The women’s bantamweight bout between Macy Chiasson and Yana Santos pits two veteran contenders in contrasting stylistic roles. Chiasson, the size-dominant striker from the United States, enters as the clear favorite, while Santos, the experienced Russian underdog, looks to leverage her precision and durability. Below, we break down each athlete’s background, recent form, and statistical strengths and weaknesses to illuminate the keys to victory in this pivotal clash.

---

Macy Chiasson Profile

Background

• Age: 34
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: MMA — powerful striker with evolving submission skills
• Size: 6'0" (71" height), 72" reach, 144 lb walking weight

Recent Form

Over her last five outings, Chiasson holds a 3-2 record:

1. May 31, 2025: Loss vs Ketlen Vieira (Decision – Unanimous)
2. June 29, 2024: Win vs Mayra Bueno Silva (TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, R2 1:58)
3. March 16, 2024: Win vs Pannie Kianzad (Submission, R1 3:54)
4. Sept. 10, 2022: Loss vs Irene Aldana (KO/TKO, R3 2:21)
5. May 7, 2022: Win vs Norma Dumont (Decision – Split)

Her two back-to-back finishes in 2024 showcased her finishing prowess, but a setback to Ketlen Vieira highlighted areas for tactical refinement.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Size & Reach Advantage: At 6’0” with a 72” reach, Chiasson controls distance and lands straights effectively.
• Submission Upside: Three career submissions signal danger on the ground, especially early.
• Takedown Defense (71%): Strong sprawl rate neutralizes wrestling-heavy opponents.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense (45%): Below-average significant strike defense makes her vulnerable in brawls.
• Takedown Offense (35%): Rarely initiates wrestling exchanges, limiting scrambles where she could display athleticism.
• Inconsistent Fight IQ: Neutralizing elite counter-strikers has proven challenging (e.g., Aldana finish, Vieira decision).

---

Yana Santos Profile

Background

• Age: 35
• Country: Russia
• Fighting Style: MMA — technical striker with solid wrestling base
• Size: 5'6" (66" height), 68.5" reach, 136 lb walking weight

Recent Form

Santos has gone 2-3 in her last five:

1. May 3, 2025: Win vs Miesha Tate (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Aug. 10, 2024: Win vs Chelsea Chandler (Decision – Unanimous)
3. July 1, 2023: Loss vs Karol Rosa (Decision – Split)
4. March 25, 2023: Loss vs Holly Holm (Decision – Unanimous)
5. July 10, 2021: Loss vs Irene Aldana (KO/TKO, R1 4:35)

Her rebound victories over Chandler and Tate have reignited momentum after a rocky 2023 campaign.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Striking Accuracy (59%): Elite precision allows her to pick shots and pace the striking exchanges.
• First-Round Finishes (7): High finishing rate early puts immediate pressure on opponents.
• Takedown Accuracy (50%): Effectively mixes level changes to disrupt stand-up.

Weaknesses:

• Size Disadvantage: Gives up 5” in height and 3.5” in reach—must close distance under fire.
• Striking Defense (53%): Willing to absorb significant strikes, especially against heavy hitters.
• Takedown Defense (54%): Average sprawl rate can lead to scrambles against strong wrestlers.

---

Key Takeaway:
Chiasson’s physical dominance and home-court advantage make her the favorite, but Santos’ sharp striking and grind-based wrestling pose real problems if she can neutralize the distance. Expect a tactical chess match early, with the potential for a violent finish should either fighter exploit their opponent’s defensive lapses.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC 320, Macy Chiasson is the clear favorite across the board, while Yana Santos carries underdog status. Here’s a snapshot of the latest head-to-head prices:

• Macy Chiasson

• FanDuel: –250
• BetRivers: –230
• BetOnline.ag: –214 (best favorite price)

• Yana Santos

• FanDuel: +190 (best underdog price)
• BetRivers: +180
• BetOnline.ag: +184

Across major sportsbooks, Chiasson commands roughly a 70% implied win probability, while Santos sits near 35%. The widest gap on the board is at FanDuel, where backing Chiasson at –250 or betting Santos at +190 offers the starkest favorite/underdog contrast.

Best Books to Bet

• To back Macy Chiasson, BetOnline.ag (-214) provides the juiciest favorite line.
• To chase the upset with Yana Santos, FanDuel (+190) yields the highest payout.

Line Movement & Market Reaction

Examining the odds history reveals significant line shifts—particularly on BetOnline.ag:

• Macy Chiasson (BetOnline.ag)

• Sept. 16: –270
• Sept. 19: –231
• Sept. 20: –220
• Sept. 22: –214

• Yana Santos (BetOnline.ag)

• Sept. 16: +230
• Sept. 19: +196
• Sept. 20: +185
• Sept. 22: +184

These swings suggest sharp action and adjusting lines as bettors poured money in on Santos and bookmakers trimmed Chiasson’s edge. In contrast, BetRivers and FanDuel have held steadier prices, indicating the most dramatic market activity has centered around BetOnline.ag.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

Here’s what you’d take home with a $1,000 wager—no complex math, just straight figures:

• Bet $1,000 on Macy Chiasson

• At –214 (BetOnline.ag): Win $467, Total Return $1,467
• At –250 (FanDuel): Win $400, Total Return $1,400

• Bet $1,000 on Yana Santos

• At +190 (FanDuel): Win $1,900, Total Return $2,900
• At +184 (BetOnline.ag): Win $1,840, Total Return $2,840

Implied Win Chances (approximate)

• Macy Chiasson: ~68% chance to win
• Yana Santos: ~35% chance to win

Key Takeaway

Chiasson’s favorite tag reflects her size, reach and finishing upside. Yet the sharp line movement—especially at BetOnline.ag—underscores growing confidence (and money) on Santos as a live dog. If you’re hunting maximum upside on an upset, FanDuel’s +190 is the go-to. If you lean toward the favorite and want the softest juice, BetOnline.ag’s –214 is your best play.