Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi Betting Preview & AI Pick

Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi Fight Analysis

Event Overview

Get ready for an electrifying Bantamweight showdown as Marlon Vera takes on Aiemann Zahabi on Saturday, October 18, 2025, at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. This clash is featured on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen, with the octagon doors officially opening at 11:00 PM ET. Fight fans in Canada and around the world will witness two stylistically contrasting contenders vying for critical momentum in the stacked 135-pound division.

The Fighters

Aiemann Zahabi (13-2-0), hailing from Laval, Canada, enters this matchup riding a five-fight winning streak. Zahabi’s performances have been nothing short of dominant, with 47% significant strike accuracy, 70% defense, and a league-leading 84% takedown defense. His methodical striking, combined with relentless cardio and cage control, makes him the favorite heading into this contest.

• Current Odds: –155 (BetOnline.ag) | –186 (FanDuel)

Standing across the octagon, Marlon “Chito” Vera (23-10-1) from Chone, Ecuador, is the clear underdog. Vera brings a dynamic grappling pedigree—39% takedown accuracy and a staggering 10 submission victories on his resume—along with heavy hands that have garnered him 8 knockout wins. Despite dropping his last two bouts to top contenders Sean O’Malley and Deiveson Figueiredo, Vera’s resilience and power make him a perpetual threat.

• Current Odds: +135 (BetOnline.ag) | +144 (FanDuel)

Why This Fight Matters

1. Continental Pride & Home Advantage

   • Zahabi defends his unbeaten home-country record in Canada, a rare luxury in the UFC’s global circuit.
   • Crowd energy at Rogers Arena could fuel his relentless pace.

2. Style Contrast

   • Zahabi’s precise striking and smothering takedown defense vs. Vera’s explosive grappling and knockout power.
   • A classic striker-vs-grappler puzzle that will test each man’s game-planning and adaptability.

3. Playoff Implications

   • A win for Zahabi solidifies his top-10 status (#9) and pushes him closer to bantamweight title contention.
   • Vera, ranked #7, desperately needs a signature victory to bounce back into the title picture.

Betting Landscape

• Favorite: Aiemann Zahabi (–155 to –186)
• Underdog: Marlon Vera (+135 to +144)
• Betting Angles: Zahabi’s durability and streak suggest a sharp moneyline play, while Vera’s finishing prowess makes him an attractive value pick on the plus odds.

With both fighters primed and contrasting in every department, Marlon Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi promises high drama, tactical chess, and potentially the next breakout moment in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Fans, bettors, and analysts alike won’t want to miss how this crucial Main Card anchor unfolds under the bright lights of Vancouver.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for de Ridder vs Allen can be found on the de Ridder vs Allen event page.

Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles

Aiemann Zahabi Profile

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: Canada (Laval, QC)
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA striker with an emphasis on pressure striking and elite takedown defense.
• Record: 13–2–0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. May 2025 vs. José Aldo – Win (Unanimous Decision)
2. Nov. 2024 vs. Pedro Munhoz – Win (Unanimous Decision)
3. Mar. 2024 vs. Javid Basharat – Win (Unanimous Decision)
4. Jun. 2023 vs. Aoriqileng – Win (KO/TKO, Round 1)
5. Jul. 2022 vs. Ricky Turcios – Win (Unanimous Decision)

Zahabi boasts a five-fight winning streak, relying on precision striking and cage control. Four of those wins went to decision, showcasing his cardio and ability to maintain pace over 15 minutes.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths

  • Takedown Defense (84%): Among the best in the division, negating opponents’ grappling ambitions.
  • Significant Strike Defense (70%): Rarely absorbs heavy damage, forcing opponents to reset or overcommit.
  • Endurance & Pace: Averages nearly 12 minutes per fight, showing efficient energy management and late-fight sharpness.

• Weaknesses

  • Takedown Offense (14%): Struggles to secure takedowns, limiting his wrestling variety.
  • Finishing Rate: Only 8 first-round finishes and 2 submission wins in 13 victories—may lack killer instinct once momentum stalls.
  • Age & Wear: At 37, reaction time and recovery between fast exchanges could dip against younger, explosive foes.

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Marlon “Chito” Vera Profile

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: Ecuador (Chone)
• Fighting Style: Elite grappler with dynamic submission arsenal, complemented by heavy hands.
• Record: 23–10–1

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Aug. 2024 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo – Loss (Unanimous Decision)
2. Mar. 2024 vs. Sean O’Malley – Loss (Unanimous Decision)
3. Aug. 2023 vs. Pedro Munhoz – Win (Unanimous Decision)
4. Mar. 2023 vs. Cory Sandhagen – Loss (Split Decision)
5. Aug. 2022 vs. Dominick Cruz – Win (KO/TKO, Round 4)

Vera has alternated wins and losses, demonstrating he can hang with top contenders but has come up short in razor-close affairs.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths

  • Takedown Accuracy (39%) & Wins by Submission (10): A constant threat to drag the fight into deep grappling waters.
  • Finishing Power: Eight career knockouts and eight first-round finishes—few can withstand his early pressure.
  • Striking Accuracy (49%): Slightly above division average, landing clean shots when he commits.

• Weaknesses

  • Significant Strike Defense (50%): Vulnerable to volume strikers; absorbs more strikes than he defends.
  • Takedown Defense (73%): Below Zahabi’s defensive ceiling, meaning he can be reversed or controlled.
  • Cardio in Long Wars: Averages 13:29 per fight, but his late-fight output dips after heavy grappling exchanges.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Striker vs. Grappler: Zahabi’s elite takedown defense will be tested by Vera’s wrestling pedigree. If he keeps it standing, he controls distance with sharp counters.
• Pace & Durability: Zahabi can push high output for 15 minutes; Vera must avoid one-dimensional brawls that favor the more defensively sound opponent.
• Finishing Edge: Vera holds the upside to end the fight with a submission or knockout, whereas Zahabi is more likely to grind out a decision.

This clash of styles—precision striking and stifling defense versus dynamic grappling and sudden power—promises a compelling, high-stakes bantamweight matchup.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Summary

Heading into the main event at Rogers Arena, the betting market clearly favors Canadian striker Aiemann Zahabi, while Ecuadorian grappler Marlon “Chito” Vera sits firmly in the underdog role.

• Aiemann Zahabi
  • BetOnline.ag: –155
  • FanDuel: –186
• Marlon Vera
  • BetOnline.ag: +135
  • FanDuel: +144

At the sharp BetOnline.ag board, Zahabi is priced at –155 (implied probability ~61%), and Vera at +135 (~42%). FanDuel shifts a bit more in Zahabi’s favor at –186 (~66%) and offers slightly juicier underdog odds for Vera at +144 (~41%).

Underdog: Marlon Vera
Favorite: Aiemann Zahabi

Best Sportsbook to Bett On:

• For backing the favorite, BetOnline.ag provides the most generous line on Zahabi (–155 vs. –186).
• For the underdog play, FanDuel’s +144 on Vera stands out over +135 at BetOnline.ag.

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Line Movement & Historical Trends

Tracking the lines since late September reveals a noticeable convergence:

• Zahabi’s BetOnline.ag line opened at –180 on Sept. 27 and has ticked down to –155. This shift suggests some backing of Vera by sharp bettors or the softening of early favoritism toward Zahabi.
• Vera’s BetOnline.ag line responded accordingly, moving from +155 down to +135, indicating increased demand on him as a value play.
• FanDuel’s listings have remained more static for Vera (+144) but show Zahabi firming up at –186 as of Oct. 6.

No abrupt “steam” spikes or drastic swings are evident—rather, a slow-motion market adjustment as bettors weigh Zahabi’s home‐soil advantage against Vera’s heavy hands and grappling upside.

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Betting Scenarios & Potential Payouts

If you’re rolling with a $1,000 stake, here’s what you’d see at the best current odds:

• Betting Zahabi at –155 (BetOnline.ag)

  • Total Return: $1,645.16
  • Profit: $645.16

• Betting Vera at +144 (FanDuel)

  • Total Return: $2,440
  • Profit: $1,440

Probability Estimates (implied by the odds):

• Zahabi: Roughly 62% chance to win
• Vera: Approximately 41% chance to win

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Key Takeaways

• Value on Vera? If you believe Vera’s wrestling and knockout power can neutralize Zahabi’s striking precision, the +144 underdog line at FanDuel offers the largest upside.
• Play it safe on Zahabi? For those confident in Zahabi’s cardio and takedown defense, the –155 price at BetOnline.ag maximizes return on the favorite.
• Line Movement: Gradual shifts suggest a balanced market rather than one dominated by steam or late-breaking news.

Ultimately, whether you side with the home‐country hero or the resilient Ecuadorian, these odds and their history will help you place a more informed wager on this high‐stakes bantamweight clash.