Bekoev vs Belgaroui Odds, Analysis & AI Pick | UFC Vancouver

Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, October 18, 2025, fight fans will tune into Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, to catch the next thrilling bout on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen. Slated to kick off at 8:00 PM local time, the middleweight showdown between rising contender Azamat Bekoev and Dutch striker Yousri Belgaroui promises fireworks from the opening bell. With the action streamed live on ESPN+ (U.S.) and UFC Fight Pass (international), bettors and enthusiasts alike are already weighing the odds: Bekoev enters as a clear -260 to -275 favorite, while Belgaroui sits on the other side of the ledger at +220.

Bekoev (20-3-0, 2-0 UFC) has been a revelation since his January 18th debut, notching back-to-back first-round knockouts and boasting a blistering 10 first-round finishes across his career. The 29-year-old Russian holds an impressive 61% significant strike accuracy and defends 100% of takedown attempts, making him a nightmare for opponents who dare to grapple. With an average fight time of just 2:54, Bekoev’s aggressive style and power-punching pedigree have cemented him as a short odds favorite in most sportsbooks, including BetOnline.ag, Bovada, and BetMGM.

Standing in Bekoev’s path is 33-year-old Yousri Belgaroui (1-1-0, UFC debut), a seasoned kickboxer sporting a 61% striking accuracy and 58% defense in his limited UFC action. Though he’s yet to secure a finish under the promotional spotlight, Belgaroui’s durability (82% takedown defense) and late-surge knockout of seasoned veteran Joe Penning at PFL 2023 underscore his threat level. Making his UFC debut on Canadian soil, Belgaroui will be looking to capitalize on his underdog status and exploit any gaps in Bekoev’s relentless forward pressure.

This fight represents a classic stylistic clash: Bekoev’s wrestling-heavy, high-pace assault versus Belgaroui’s kickboxing roots and counter-striking prowess. For bettors, the value play may lie with the underdog as Belgaroui’s +220 line at BetOnline.ag, Bovada, and BetMGM offers a respectable payout should he neutralize Bekoev’s takedowns and land one of his signature leg kicks. Conversely, sharp money on Bekoev (now trading between –260 and –275) indicates growing confidence that the Russian phenom will continue his knockout streak.

As fight night approaches, factors such as cardio, cage control, and fight IQ will be pivotal. Will Bekoev impose his grappling and impose early finishes, or can Belgaroui weather the storm and find his range on the feet? Read on for a deep dive into each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and betting angles in our full breakdown below.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for de Ridder vs Allen can be found on the de Ridder vs Allen event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Azamat Bekoev: The Rising Russian Phenom

Age: 29
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a wrestling base and knockout power
Record: 20–3–0 (2–0 UFC)

Background & Recent Form
• Bekoev burst onto the UFC scene in January 2025, dropping Zachary Reese via first-round KO/TKO (3:04) in his promotional debut.
• He followed that up in May 2025 by dispatching Ryan Loder in just 2:44 of Round 1, marking two straight first-round stoppages.
• Prior to his UFC run, Bekoev compiled an 18–3 record in regional circuits (M-1 Global), finishing the majority of opponents by strikes or submissions.
• Overall, he boasts five consecutive victories, four of which ended in Round 1 (three KOs/TKOs, one submission), and an unblemished 10 first-round finishes over his career.

Strengths

• Explosive Power & Finishing Instinct:
  • 8 career knockouts, 8 submissions, and 10 first-round stoppages.
  • Average fight time of 2:54 reflects his quick-start mentality.
• Striking Accuracy & Volume:
  • Lands 61% of his significant strikes—well above the divisional average.
• Takedown Defense:
  • A perfect 100% takedown defense rate in UFC action, neutralizing grapplers with ease.

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense Vulnerability:
  • Allows 53% of opponent’s significant strikes to land (only 47% defended).
  • Could be exposed by a high-volume counter-striker.
• Moderate Wrestling Offense:
  • 33% takedown accuracy suggests occasional struggles to secure his own trips against elite sprawlers.

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Yousri Belgaroui: The Dutch Striker Seeking Redemption

Age: 33
Country: Netherlands
Fighting Style: Kickboxing background with growing MMA proficiency
Record: 1–1–0 (UFC debut upcoming)

Background & Recent Form
• Belgaroui comes into MMA with an extensive kickboxing résumé, transitioning fully to cage competition in 2023.
• He suffered a razor-thin split-decision loss in his pro debut but rebounded in his sophomore outing with a unanimous decision win over a seasoned veteran at a regional promotion.
• Though he holds only two pro MMA fights, his tenure includes 82% takedown defense and a solid 58% significant strike defense—traits honed against world-class kickboxers.

Strengths

• Striking Defense & Footwork:
  • Defends 58% of incoming significant strikes, leveraging angles and range.
• Durability & Chin:
  • No knockout losses in his pro record; able to withstand pressure.
• Counter-Striking & Leg Kicks:
  • Utilizes a varied leg-kick arsenal to slow opponents and create openings.

Weaknesses

• Lack of Finishing in MMA:
  • Zero KO or submission victories; all fights have gone the distance.
  • An average fight time of 13:47 signals a more measured pace but limited stoppage power.
• Takedown Offense:
  • 0% takedown accuracy indicates virtually no wrestling threat, making him one-dimensional on offense.
• Questionable Gas Tank:
  • While he can last three rounds, high pace from someone like Bekoev could force him into deep waters late in Round 1.

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In this clash of styles, Bekoev’s violent, high-pace wrestling and knockout résumé collide with Belgaroui’s technical striking and stout defense. Bekoev will aim to pressure and grind Belgaroui early, while the Dutchman must keep the fight upright and pick his counters carefully. Each fighter’s statistical profile highlights clear paths to victory—and vulnerability—making this an intriguing middleweight matchup on UFC Fight Night’s preliminary card.

Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Azamat Bekoev is installed as the clear favorite across all major books, while Yousri Belgaroui slots in as the underdog:

• Azamat Bekoev:
  • BetOnline.ag: –260
  • Bovada: –270
  • BetMGM: –275

• Yousri Belgaroui:
  • BetOnline.ag: +220
  • Bovada: +220
  • BetMGM: +220

Bekoev’s favorite status reflects his undefeated UFC run and devastating first-round stopping power. Belgaroui, a +220 underdog everywhere you look, offers bettors a juicy payout if he can land one of his signature leg kicks or avoid the early onslaught.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at the BetOnline.ag market reveals the most dramatic shifts:

• Bekoev opened at –500 on October 9, then tumbled to –350, –300, and now sits at –260.
• Belgaroui began life at +385, improved to +285, then +250, and has leveled off at +220.

Those swings indicate heavy early action on the Russian phenom, prompting bookmakers to shorten Bekoev’s line significantly. Conversely, Belgaroui’s odds have moved from longshot territory into a more respectable underdog slot, suggesting some smart-money support as fight week approaches.

Implied Probability & Payouts

While nobody wants the math lesson, it’s useful to know what a $1,000 wager would net you at these lines:

• Bet $1,000 on Bekoev at –270 (Bovada/BetMGM) returns roughly $1,370 total—about $370 profit.
• Bet $1,000 on Belgaroui at +220 (any book) returns $3,200 total—about $2,200 profit.

In plain terms, a winning underdog ticket on Belgaroui pays out over three times your stake, while backing Bekoev yields a more modest return but a higher statistical likelihood of success.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

For favorite backers, BetOnline.ag currently posts the shortest line on Bekoev at –260, compared to –270 and –275 elsewhere, maximizing your potential profit margin. Those looking to root for the underdog will find identical +220 odds at BetOnline.ag, Bovada, and BetMGM, so shop for your preferred user experience—Bonuses, live chat, or mobile app quality may be your tiebreaker.

Underdog Value vs. Favorite Security

• Underdog Play (Belgaroui +220):
  High reward if he lands key strikes or takes Bekoev into deep water. Strong leg-kick game could swing momentum.

• Favorite Play (Bekoev –260):
  Safer bet given his perfect UFC record and rapid finishes. Ideal for bettors seeking the highest chance to cash, even if the payout is smaller.

As the line movement demonstrates, money has flowed in on Bekoev’s dynamite start under the UFC banner. However, savvy bettors may find true value in Belgaroui’s evolving odds—especially if they believe his kickboxing pedigree can neutralize Bekoev’s early takedown bursts. Whichever side you choose, be sure to lock in your odds at the sportsbook that best aligns with your risk tolerance and preferred platform.