Winner: Joseph Morales
Confidence Score: 62Joseph Morales is the more proven commodity at the UFC level, with prior UFC experience and a well-rounded skill set. He has a strong submission game (6 submission wins) and a solid significant strike defense (61%), which is important in the flyweight division. Morales also has a notable reach advantage (69" arm reach), which can help him control range against opponents who are making their UFC debut. While his takedown defense is a major weakness (23%), Alibi Idiris is debuting with no reliable UFC-level stats, making his true level hard to gauge. Historically, undefeated regional champions from Kazakhstan with similar profiles do well in their debuts, but tend to struggle against UFC-experienced fighters with strong grappling and submission skills. Morales' experience, submission threat, and reach advantage make him the safer pick, though the confidence is tempered by Idiris' finishing rate and unknown ceiling.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.