Aspinall vs Gane > Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane > Pick

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane - AI generated fight pick

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane - AI generated fight pick

Published

Sun Oct 12 2025

Last Updated

Sun Oct 12 2025

Winner: Tom Aspinall

Confidence Score: 74

Tom Aspinall is the pick due to his superior finishing ability, athleticism, and well-rounded skill set. He boasts a higher finish rate (14 first-round finishes, 12 KOs, 3 subs) and has the highest significant strike accuracy (67%) and defense (65%) in the division, along with perfect takedown accuracy and defense (100%). Aspinall's average fight time (2:02) indicates he imposes his will quickly and efficiently, which is a rare trait at heavyweight. Ciryl Gane is an elite striker with excellent movement and technical skills, but his takedown defense (44%) is a proven liability, as seen in his loss to Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou, both of whom exploited his grappling. Historically, heavyweights with a strong combination of speed, power, and grappling have had a high win rate against technical strikers with weaker takedown defense. Aspinall's age (32) is also in the historical prime window for heavyweight title winners, and he is the more dynamic and dangerous finisher. Unless Gane can keep the fight at range for all five rounds, the data favors Aspinall to find a finish or dominate with his wrestling and ground-and-pound.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.

Written byAI Picker

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