UFC 321 Rakic vs Murzakanov: Odds, Preview & Pick

Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov fight analysis

Introduction

The Light Heavyweight clash between Aleksandar Rakic and Azamat Murzakanov is set to shake up the main card of UFC 321 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Scheduled for October 25, 2025 with a bell time of 18:00 UTC, this bout features two of the division’s most dangerous punchers. Rakic, the odds-on favorite at -115, squares off against the undefeated Russian power puncher Murzakanov, a slight underdog at -105, in what promises to be a closely contested, high-stakes encounter.

Aleksandar Rakic (14-5-0) enters this matchup ranked #7 in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. The 33-year-old Austrian-Serb veteran made his UFC debut in September 2017 and has since carved out a reputation for precision striking and durable defenses. Over 19 UFC rounds, Rakic has landed strikes at 50% accuracy, defended 51% of incoming significant strikes, and showcased credible takedown defense (86%). He’s finished opponents by knockout or TKO nine times, with eight first-round stoppages, and averages 11:26 per fight. Despite recent setbacks—including unanimous decision losses to Magomed Ankalaev and Jiri Prochazka—Rakic remains a heavy-handed contender eager to reassert himself among the division’s elite.

On the other side, Azamat Murzakanov (15-0-0) makes his sophomore Octagon appearance after a turbulent 2025 marked by the first defeat of his career against Brendson Ribeiro. The 36-year-old Russian, ranked #10, is a late-career phenom whose knockout artistry has characterized his entire MMA tenure. With 11 KO/TKO victories, nine first-round finishes, and an eye-popping 58% significant strike accuracy, Murzakanov possesses one of the most dangerous right hands in the division. His takedown defense sits at 83%, but his offensive wrestling is modest (15% takedown accuracy), making this stylistic matchup a pure striker’s duel.

Why This Fight Matters

• Rakic needs a statement win to rebound from back-to-back losses to top contenders and keep his title aspirations alive.
• Murzakanov aims to avenge his lone UFC defeat and prove that his undefeated aura extends to elite opponents.
• A finish by either man would catapult them into immediate title contention chatter in a division hungry for new challengers.

From a betting perspective, the narrow line between Rakic and Murzakanov underscores the uncertainty: Rakic, though the favorite, has shown vulnerability to elite finishers, while Murzakanov’s singular UFC loss raises questions about his ability to adapt under pressure. Fans and bettors alike should expect explosive exchanges, power punching galore, and the ever-present possibility of a highlight-reel knockout. As UFC 321’s Etihad Arena lights ignite on October 25, all eyes will be on Rakic vs. Murzakanov—where one man’s resurgence and the other’s redemption collide in a fight that could reshape the Light Heavyweight landscape.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Aleksandar Rakic: Profile & Recent Form

Age: 33
Country: Serbia (born Vienna, Austria)
Fighting Style: Freestyle striker with strong wrestling defense
Physical Attributes: Height 76" (6'4"), Reach 78", Leg Reach 46"

Aleksandar Rakic (14-5-0) bursts into this showdown off a mixed run of results against top Light Heavyweights. His last five UFC outings:

• Loss to Magomed Ankalaev (Oct. 26, 2024) – Unanimous Decision
• Loss to Jiri Prochazka (Apr. 13, 2024) – KO/TKO (Round 2, 3:17)
• Loss to Jan Blachowicz (May 14, 2022) – KO/TKO (Round 3, 1:11)
• Win over Thiago Santos (Mar. 6, 2021) – Unanimous Decision
• Win over Anthony Smith (Aug. 29, 2020) – Decision

Strengths

• Power & Finishing Ability: 9 KO/TKO victories and eight first-round stoppages highlight his one-punch power.
• Striking Defense: He defends 51% of incoming significant strikes, helping him survive in firefights.
• Takedown Defense: At 86%, he neutralizes most wrestling attacks, forcing opponents to stand and trade.
• Reach Advantage: A 78" reach allows him to control distance, especially against shorter foes.

Weaknesses

• Susceptibility to Heavy Hitters: Three of his five losses have come by KO/TKO, indicating occasional lapses in chin and head movement.
• Inconsistent Striking Accuracy: Landing 50% of significant strikes shows quality, but leaves openings for counter-attackers.
• Moderate Offensive Wrestling: A 24% takedown accuracy suggests he rarely threatens with grappling, limiting strategic diversity.
• Recent Slide: Three straight losses to top contenders may weigh on his confidence and alter his game plan.

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Azamat Murzakanov: Profile & Recent Form

Age: 36
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: MMA brawler with knockout pedigree
Physical Attributes: Height 70" (5'10"), Reach 71.5", Leg Reach 41"

Azamat Murzakanov (15-0-0) arrives after dismantling several Light Heavyweights with violent finishes. His past five fights:

• Loss to Brendson Ribeiro (Jun. 7, 2025) – Decision (first career defeat)
• Win over Alonzo Menifield (Aug. 3, 2024) – KO/TKO (Round 2, 3:18)
• Win over Dustin Jacoby (Apr. 15, 2023) – Unanimous Decision
• Win over Devin Clark (Aug. 13, 2022) – KO/TKO (Round 3, 1:18)
• Win over Tafon Nchukwi (Mar. 12, 2022) – KO/TKO (Round 3, 0:44)

Strengths

• Elite Knockout Power: 11 KO/TKO wins and nine first-round finishes make him one of the division’s hardest hitters.
• High Strike Accuracy: Landing 58% of significant strikes, he picks his shots well and punishes openings.
• Striking Defense: Avoiding 62% of incoming strikes lets him counter effectively.
• Aggressive Pace: An average fight time of 08:38 demonstrates relentless pressure that overwhelms many foes.

Weaknesses

• Limited Grappling Offense: A 15% takedown accuracy means he rarely threatens on the mat, potentially allowing a wrestler-heavy game plan.
• Durability Questions: The loss to Ribeiro—his lone defeat—raises questions about endurance and ability to adjust under pressure.
• Size Disadvantage: Standing 6" shorter with a 6.5" reach deficit, he must navigate Rakic’s jab and distance control.
• Advanced Age: At 36, maintaining speed and reflexes deep into championship rounds could be challenging.

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Both athletes bring distinct profiles to this encounter. Rakic’s reach, wrestling defense, and veteran savvy clash with Murzakanov’s explosive power, accuracy, and forward pressure. This fight will hinge on whether Rakic can utilize his size and grappling defense to frustrate Murzakanov, or if Murzakanov can turn this into a striking clinic and land the knockout blow that has defined his career.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update on October 13, 2025, Aleksandar Rakic is installed as the slight favorite at -115 (BetOnline.ag), while Azamat Murzakanov sits just behind as the underdog at -105. The narrow 10-cent gap underscores how evenly matched these Light Heavyweights are perceived to be. Rakic’s modest edge reflects bettors’ respect for his size, reach and veteran savvy, whereas Murzakanov’s underdog tag hints at concerns over his lone UFC loss and shorter stature.

• Favorite: Aleksandar Rakic (–115)
• Underdog: Azamat Murzakanov (–105)
• Best Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag remains the top choice for this matchup, offering consistent lines and transparent odds history.

Line Movement & Historical Odds

Tracking the line swings on BetOnline.ag reveals a tug-of-war between Rakic backers and Murzakanov bettors:

Aleksandar Rakic odds history

• Oct 12, 01:30 UTC: +110
• Oct 12, 01:39 UTC: –110
• Oct 12, 02:10 UTC: –105
• Oct 12, 06:49 UTC: +100
• Oct 12, 10:19 UTC: –105
• Oct 13, 09:07 UTC: –115 (current)

Azamat Murzakanov odds history

• Oct 12, 01:30 UTC: –130
• Oct 12, 01:39 UTC: –110
• Oct 12, 02:10 UTC: –115
• Oct 12, 06:49 UTC: –120
• Oct 12, 10:19 UTC: –115
• Oct 13, 09:07 UTC: –105 (current)

Key takeaways:

• Rakic’s line has vacillated between underdog territory (+110, +100) and slight favorite (–115), suggesting early sharp money on Murzakanov forced Rakic from +110 up to –115.
• Murzakanov opened as a clear favorite at –130 before heavy backing on Rakic saw his line drift to –105.
• Both fighters witnessed a near six-cent swing, a sign of balanced action on both sides rather than a lopsided money flow.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to wager:

• Betting $1,000 on Rakic (–115) would yield a profit of $870, for a total payout of $1,870.
• Betting $1,000 on Murzakanov (–105) would yield a profit of $952, for a total payout of $1,952.

Based on the current odds, Rakic carries an implied win probability of approximately 53.5%, while Murzakanov’s chances sit near 51.2%. The near-even percentages mirror the razor-thin line and set the stage for a dynamic betting market where a last-minute injury note or weigh-in report could tilt the scales.

Conclusion

With both men trading the favorite role in the days leading up to UFC 321, the odds reflect a true 50-50 clash. Rakic’s edge in reach and takedown defense battles Murzakanov’s elite knockout power and striking accuracy. Bettors looking for value will watch closely for any late line movement—especially on BetOnline.ag—where the best odds can still be found. Whether you back the experience and size of Rakic or gamble on the raw explosiveness of Murzakanov, this Light Heavyweight showdown offers a compelling betting proposition right up until the final bell.