Winner: Azat Maksum
Confidence Score: 75Azat Maksum is the more experienced and proven fighter at the UFC level, holding a 15-2 record with a well-rounded finishing ability (4 KOs, 6 submissions) and a strong first-round finishing rate. He has a significant reach advantage (70" arm, 39" leg) over Mitch Raposo (64.5" arm, 36" leg), which is a key factor at flyweight. Maksum's takedown defense (86%) is elite, making it difficult for Raposo, who has only a 38% takedown accuracy and 50% takedown defense, to impose a grappling-heavy game. Maksum's UFC experience and ability to defend takedowns should neutralize Raposo's main path to victory. Additionally, Raposo is on a two-fight split decision losing streak in the UFC, indicating struggles in close fights at the highest level. Historically, flyweights with Maksum's reach, takedown defense, and finishing ability have a high win rate against shorter, less defensively sound opponents who rely on decision-heavy outcomes. Maksum's durability, experience, and stylistic advantages make him the favorite.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.