Charles Johnson vs Lone'er Kavanagh: UFC Odds & AI Pick

Charles Johnson vs Lone?er Kavanagh fight analysis

Event Overview

Mark your calendars for August 23, 2025: the Flyweight clash between Charles Johnson and Lone’er Kavanagh takes center stage on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Xuhui District, China. The bout is officially slated to begin at 7:00 AM local time (UTC+8), kicking off what promises to be an action-packed evening of mixed martial arts. As part of UFC’s global push into Asia, this flyweight scrap will serve as a critical stepping stone for both men—one a surging prospect, the other a seasoned veteran looking to crack the divisional top 15.

Betting Odds and Key Matchup

Oddsmakers have installed Lone’er Kavanagh as the clear favorite in this matchup. Across major sportsbooks, Kavanagh’s moneyline hovers around –200 (Caesars), indicating strong confidence in the 25-year-old’s skill set and undefeated résumé (9–0). On the other side, Charles Johnson is the underdog at roughly +170 (Caesars), a testament to the American’s experience and resilience but also to the uphill battle he faces against an unbeaten striker.

Why the gap? Kavanagh, nicknamed “The London Lion,” boasts a 50% significant strike accuracy and 100% takedown defense, reflecting his well-rounded stand-up game and elite grappling denial. He averages just under eleven minutes per fight and has already collected two first-round finishes in his short but spotless UFC tenure. Johnson, meanwhile, has faced stiffer competition—17 wins and seven losses against ranked foes—and carries a #15 flyweight ranking into Shanghai. His 7 knockouts and 3 submissions illustrate a powerful arsenal, yet his 21% takedown accuracy and 67% takedown defense point to potential vulnerabilities in the clinch and on the mat.

Why This Bout Matters

For Lone’er Kavanagh, a win over a veteran like Johnson propels him further up the crowded flyweight ladder. Conquering a ranked opponent on foreign soil would not only enhance his UFC legacy but also cement his status as a future title contender. Conversely, a victory for Charles Johnson offers redemption after a March 2025 setback and the opportunity to snap Kavanagh’s perfect streak. The 34-year-old Johnson has the experience edge but will need to navigate Kavanagh’s sharp striking and explosive counters.

What to Watch

• Striking Exchanges: Can Johnson withstand Kavanagh’s precise leg kicks and powerful combinations?
• Clinch and Ground Control: Will Johnson successfully drag the fight into grappling exchanges where he can leverage his veteran savvy?
• Pace and Pressure: Kavanagh’s youth and cardio might force Johnson out of his comfort zone, especially in later rounds.

As fight fans and bettors alike gear up for this pivotal flyweight showdown, the landscape could shift dramatically with a single punch or scramble. Whether you’re backing the undefeated favorite or banking on the gritty underdog, Charles Johnson vs Lone’er Kavanagh is poised to deliver fireworks in Shanghai—and set the tone for the rest of Fight Night’s compelling lineup.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Charles Johnson vs Lone?er Kavanagh can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Walker vs Zhang can be found on the Walker vs Zhang event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Lone’er Kavanagh: The Unbeaten Prospect

• Age: 25
• Country: England (London)
• Fighting Style: Kickboxer
• UFC Record: 2–0 (9–0 overall)

Lone’er Kavanagh, nicknamed “The London Lion,” arrived in the UFC with an unblemished 7–0 regional record and has extended his perfect streak to 9–0 with back-to-back unanimous decision victories. In his most recent outings, Kavanagh outstruck Felipe dos Santos (Mar. 22, 2025) and Jose Ochoa (Nov. 23, 2024), showcasing superior footwork, crisp combinations and iron-clad takedown defense.

Key Statistics:

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 50%
• Significant Strike Defense: 62%
• Takedown Accuracy: 50%
• Takedown Defense: 100%
• Average Fight Time: 10:48
• First-Round Finishes: 2

Strengths

• Striking Precision: At 50% accuracy, Kavanagh lands half of his significant strikes, a mark well above division average.
• Defensive Mastery: He absorbs only 38% of opponents’ strikes and boasts a flawless 100% takedown defense, effectively neutralizing grapplers.
• Cardio and Pace: Averaging nearly eleven minutes per fight, he maintains a high pace and rarely slows in the championship rounds.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Touch: Only 3 of 9 career wins came by finish (4 KOs, 1 submission), suggesting an area to sharpen if he wants highlight-reel stoppages.
• Experience Gap: With just two UFC appearances, he hasn’t faced the depth of talent that Johnson has encountered.

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Charles Johnson: The Seasoned Veteran

• Age: 34
• Country: United States (Topeka)
• Fighting Style: Balanced striker with submission chops
• UFC Record: 8–4 (17–7 overall), #15 Flyweight

Charles Johnson brings a wealth of experience, including wins over ranked foes like Su Mudaerji and Joshua Van. His last five outings:

1. Loss to Ramazan Temirov (Decision, Mar. 1, 2025)
2. Win vs. Su Mudaerji (Decision, Oct. 19, 2024)
3. KO/TKO win over Joshua Van (Jul. 13, 2024)
4. Decision win against Jake Hadley (May 11, 2024)
5. Decision win vs. Azat Maksum (Feb. 3, 2024)

Key Statistics:

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 50%
• Significant Strike Defense: 58%
• Takedown Accuracy: 21%
• Takedown Defense: 67%
• Average Fight Time: 13:38
• First-Round Finishes: 4

Strengths

• Finishing Ability: Seven knockouts and three submissions speak to a versatile arsenal capable of ending fights on the feet or the mat.
• Reach and Height Advantage: At 69" tall with a 70" reach, he can dictate range against shorter opponents like Kavanagh.
• Experience Under Fire: Having faced top-15 competition, he knows how to adapt mid-fight and manage pressure.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Game: A 21% takedown accuracy suggests limited wrestling output, while a 67% takedown defense leaves him vulnerable to elite grapplers.
• Cardio Concerns: An average fight time of nearly 14 minutes hints at potential gas issues in high-tempo battles.
• Striking Defense: Conceding 42% of significant strikes could lead to trouble if Kavanagh’s volume becomes overwhelming.

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Comparative Analysis

This clash pits youthful precision and defensive mastery against veteran power and experience. Kavanagh’s elite takedown denial and striking accuracy will pressure Johnson to engage on the feet, where he must leverage his reach and finishing pedigree. Conversely, Johnson needs to slow the pace, close distance and punish Kavanagh in scrambles or clinch scenarios to expose the 25-year-old’s relative inexperience. This stylistic chess match will determine if the unbeaten prospect continues his ascent or if the seasoned contender reclaims momentum in the flyweight division.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As fight night approaches, the moneyline gap between these two flyweights has solidified. Across top sportsbooks, the consensus stands at:

• Lone’er Kavanagh: –200 (Caesars), –205 (DraftKings), –210 (BetMGM), –215 (BetRivers), –220 (FanDuel)
• Charles Johnson: +170 (Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM), +168 (FanDuel), +165 (BetRivers)

This means Kavanagh is the clear favorite, while Johnson slots in as the underdog. The widest margin sits at 385 cents between the worst Kavanagh line (–220) and the highest Johnson line (+168), giving bettors a substantial edge if they side with the American upset pick.

If you’re backing the favorite, Caesars is currently offering the most generous price at –200, shaving off a bit of vig compared to other books. For those banking on the upset, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars all post the top underdog line at +170, making them the best shops for a Johnson wager.

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Line Movement Analysis

A look at opening lines and their evolution reveals interesting swings, likely driven by early sharp action and public sentiment:

• Lone’er Kavanagh (Caesars)
  • Opened at –220 on Aug. 18
  • Sharpened to –210 within an hour
  • Shifted to a soft –195 by Aug. 19 as underdog money crept in
  • Finally settled at –200 on Aug. 20

• Charles Johnson (Caesars)
  • Launched at +180 on Aug. 18
  • Drifting to +175 by that evening
  • Dipped to +165 on Aug. 19 as bettors backed the veteran
  • Bounced back slightly to +170 on Aug. 20

The biggest moves occurred on Aug. 19, when Kavanagh lost 25 cents of favorite juice (–220 to –195) and Johnson shed 15 cents (from +180 to +165). This suggests a wave of confidence in Johnson’s experience, offsetting some early love for the unbeaten prospect.

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Potential Payouts and Implied Chances

Here’s what a $1,000 wager brings you at current lines:

• $1,000 on Lone’er Kavanagh (–200) returns $1,500 total ($500 profit).
• $1,000 on Charles Johnson (+170) returns $2,700 total ($1,700 profit).

When you lock in these lines, the market is implying roughly a 67% chance for Kavanagh and a 37% chance for Johnson—percentages that reflect both fighters’ public perception and sharp-money influences.

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Key Takeaways for Bettors

• Favorite Edge? Kavanagh’s best price is –200 at Caesars.
• Underdog Value? Johnson’s ideal line is +170 at Caesars, DraftKings, or BetMGM.
• Line Swings: Watch for further shifts—should late-breaking news or public money tilt the scales, these lines could move again on fight week.
• Risk vs. Reward: A $1K stake on Johnson almost quadruples your profit potential compared to the favorite, but comes with significantly more risk.

Whether you’re riding the unbeaten wave or rooting for the seasoned comeback, understanding these odds—and their subtle fluctuations—will help you craft a smarter bet on Charles Johnson vs Lone’er Kavanagh.