Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter - AI generated fight pick

Jafel Filho holds significant advantages in this matchup due to his experience, finishing ability, and grappling pedigree. He has a much deeper submission arsenal (10 submission wins vs 4 for Carpenter), more first-round finishes, and a proven ability to defend takedowns (67% defense vs Carpenter's 43%). Filho also has a reach advantage (2.5 inches) and a slightly higher takedown defense, which is critical against a well-rounded but sometimes takedown-vulnerable opponent like Carpenter. Carpenter's striking is more accurate, but his takedown defense and grappling have been exposed at a lower UFC level, and fighters with similar profiles to Filho (older, longer reach, submission-heavy) have had a higher win rate in recent flyweight matchups. Filho's recent form is solid, and his style is a tough stylistic matchup for Carpenter, who has struggled with strong grapplers. The main caveat is Filho's age (32 vs 28), as younger flyweights win at a slightly higher rate, but the stylistic and experience edges outweigh this factor.