Winner: Lucas Rocha
Confidence Score: 72Lucas Rocha has a more extensive and proven record at 17-2, with a significant edge in knockout power (10 KOs vs 4 KOs) and more first-round finishes. While Stewart Nicoll is a strong grappler with 100% takedown accuracy, his takedown defense is 0%, making him vulnerable against a striker like Rocha who has a 61% takedown defense and a Muay Thai background. Rocha's striking accuracy (45%) is comparable to Nicoll's (47%), but Rocha's experience against higher-level competition and his ability to defend takedowns give him a clear stylistic advantage. Additionally, fighters with similar reach, age, and striking backgrounds have historically fared well against pure grapplers with limited UFC experience. Rocha's longer average fight time also suggests better cardio and durability. While both are coming off losses, Rocha's overall resume and skill set point to him as the more likely winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.