Winner: Julia Polastri
Confidence Score: 68Julia Polastri enters this matchup with a significant age advantage (27 vs 39), which is a key factor in the lighter women's divisions where athletic decline is more pronounced. Polastri also holds better offensive metrics, including a much higher significant strike accuracy (55% vs 43%) and a dramatically superior takedown accuracy (80% vs 23%), suggesting she can control where the fight takes place. While Kowalkiewicz is a savvy veteran with a strong takedown defense (75%) and a history of outlasting younger fighters, her recent performances show a decline, with back-to-back losses to younger, more dynamic opponents. Polastri's aggressive style and ability to mix in takedowns should give her a clear path to victory, especially as fighters with her profile (young, high-output strikers with grappling upside) have a strong historical win rate against older, volume-based veterans in the strawweight division.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.