UFC Mullarkey vs Bedoya: Betting Odds & Fight Analysis

Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya Fight Breakdown

Event Overview

The Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya scrap is set to light up the Preliminary Card at UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes, live from the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. Fans can tune in on Saturday, September 27, 2025, when the action kicks off at 23:00 UTC (that’s early Sunday morning local time in Perth). Although it’s not a title bout, this lightweight showdown carries plenty of stakes for both athletes as they look to climb the division ladder.

Betting Odds & Favorites

Heading into this bout, the oddsmakers have made Rolando Bedoya a slight favorite across most sportsbooks:

• BetOnline.ag lists Bedoya at –107 versus Mullarkey at –113
• Caesars has the pair locked at –110 each
• BetRivers opens a distinct line: Bedoya –124 and Mullarkey +100
• BetMGM shows Bedoya –115 to Mullarkey –105

These odds reflect the perception that Bedoya’s unbeaten momentum in regional promotions and improving UFC résumé give him a narrow edge. Meanwhile, Jamie Mullarkey is viewed as the underdog, despite his longer UFC tenure and higher finish rate. Bettors looking for value might lean toward Mullarkey’s superior finishing ability (10 KOs in 17 wins) and reinforced takedown defense (79%) as potential game-changers.

Why This Matchup Matters

• Rolando Bedoya (14-4-0) hails from the Callao Region of Peru and made his UFC debut in May 2023. He’s a true striker boasting a 49% significant strike accuracy and a growing confidence in the Octagon. Although he’s dropped three straight decisions, his aggressive stand-up and improving defensive metrics (53% sig. strike defense) make him a threat against anyone who dares to trade.

• Jamie Mullarkey (17-8-0) enters representing Gosford, Australia. A UFC veteran since October 2019, he’s earned 10 knockout victories and racked up seven first-round stoppages. His 9:26 average fight time underlines his explosive style, and with 34% takedown accuracy, he can mix in grappling if the stand-up exchange stalls.

Key Storylines

1. Striking vs. Striking: Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing. Will Mullarkey’s one-punch power prevail, or can Bedoya’s volume and accuracy tip the scales?
2. Experience vs. Momentum: Mullarkey has five more UFC fights on his résumé, but Bedoya enters with confidence from his regional run and a clean injury slate.
3. Card Positioning: As a Preliminary Card highlight, a standout performance here could propel the winner into the televised portion of UFC events and catch the matchmakers’ eyes for higher-profile matchups.

Whether you’re backing the Peruvian striker to justify the favorite status or siding with the Australian finisher to upset the odds, this lightweight contest promises fireworks in Perth. Don’t miss a second when Jamie Mullarkey and Rolando Bedoya collide under the bright lights of the RAC Arena.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles

Rolando Bedoya Profile

Age: 27
Country: Peru
Fighting Style: Striker

Born in the Callao Region of Peru, Rolando Bedoya brings a pure striking pedigree into the Octagon. He debuted at UFC 288 in May 2023 and has since compiled a 14–4–0 professional record. Bedoya’s background in regional promotions showcased crisp combinations and defensive footwork—attributes reflected in his 49% significant strike accuracy and 53% defense. He’s fought three times under the UFC banner, but recent setbacks (all decisions) have cooled his momentum.

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Loss vs. Jai Herbert – Decision (Unanimous) – Aug. 3, 2024
• Loss vs. Song Kenan – Decision (Unanimous) – Aug. 26, 2023
• Loss vs. Khaos Williams – Decision (Split) – May 6, 2023

Bedoya enters this contest on a three-fight skid, each fight going the distance. While his gas tank has held up, he’s yet to find a finishing touch at UFC level. His clean striking and evasive guard keep him competitive, but he must address an 0% takedown accuracy and 33% takedown defense, which leave him vulnerable to wrestlers and well-timed body grapplers.

Jamie Mullarkey Profile

Age: 29
Country: Australia
Fighting Style: Freestyle

Hailing from Gosford on Australia’s Central Coast, Jamie Mullarkey is a UFC veteran since October 2019. With a 17–8–0 professional ledger, he’s known for explosive starts and a high stoppage rate—10 knockouts, 3 submissions, and seven first-round finishes. Mullarkey’s power punching and aggressive pace have earned him highlight-reel moments, though they sometimes come at the cost of his own defense.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Loss vs. Mauricio Ruffy – KO/TKO – May 4, 2024
• Loss vs. Nasrat Haqparast – KO/TKO – Dec. 9, 2023
• Win vs. John Makdessi – Decision (Unanimous) – Sept. 9, 2023
• Loss vs. Muhammad Naimov – KO/TKO – June 3, 2023
• Win vs. Francisco Prado – Decision (Unanimous) – Feb. 11, 2023

Mullarkey is 2–3 in his last five, with his only victories coming via decision. Despite his aggressive style, he’s been stopped three times in that span, raising questions about his chin. On the upside, his 9:26 average fight time underscores his tendency for early finishes, and his 34% takedown accuracy plus 79% takedown defense reveal a well-rounded grappling base capable of stifling opponents who pivot to wrestling.

Strengths & Weaknesses Breakdown

| Attribute | Rolando Bedoya | Jamie Mullarkey | |-----------------------------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------------------------| | Striking Accuracy | 49% – Clean, precise combos | 47% – Hard-hitting shots | | Striking Defense | 53% – Solid head movement | 54% – Slight edge, good evasion | | Takedown Offense | 0% – Virtually non-existent | 34% – Effective secondary threat | | Takedown Defense | 33% – Susceptible vs. wrestlers | 79% – Among division’s best | | Finishing Rate | 7 of 14 wins by finish | 13 of 17 wins by finish | | Durability | Goes 15-minute distance | KO’d 3 times in 5 fights – durability concerns | | Cardio / Fight Pace | Methodical, measured | Aggressive, high octane early |

Rolando Bedoya’s key assets are his precision striking and defensive countering. However, his inability to threaten takedowns and relatively low finish rate at UFC level limit his upside. He must find ways to diversify his attack or risk being outworked.

Jamie Mullarkey offers explosive power and a nasty top-tier takedown defense that can neutralize Bedoya’s striking superiority. Yet his chin and tendency to wind down after the opening flurry are glaring vulnerabilities—Bedoya could capitalize with volume strikes or late-fight pressure.

This lightweight clash tests contrasting styles: Bedoya’s technical stand-up versus Mullarkey’s all-in aggression and grappling acumen. The winner will be the one who imposes their game plan—will Bedoya out-strike or will Mullarkey land one decisive blow (or takedown) to seize momentum?

Odds & Betting History

Current Betting Odds

As of September 15, 2025, the bookmakers have installed Rolando Bedoya as a slight favorite over Jamie Mullarkey, but the lines remain close:

• BetOnline.ag: Bedoya –107 | Mullarkey –113
• Caesars: Bedoya –110 | Mullarkey –110
• BetRivers: Bedoya –124 | Mullarkey +100
• BetMGM: Bedoya –115 | Mullarkey –105
• BetUS: Bedoya –105 | Mullarkey –115

Across the board, you’ll pay around even money to back either man. Bedoya’s narrow edge reflects his precise striking and undefeated run in regional fights, while Mullarkey’s reputation for explosive finishes keeps him firmly in the picture.

Underdog Alert:

• Mullarkey carries the underdog tag at +100 (BetRivers), meaning a $100 bet returns $200 if he scores the upset.
• For Bedoya backers, BetUS (–105) offers the softest line—your $1,000 wager would net a healthy profit if he prevails.

Best Sportsbook Picks:

• To back Mullarkey, BetRivers (+100) is the clear choice.
• To back Bedoya, BetUS (–105) yields the highest return on an otherwise tight market.

Line Movement & Odds History

When the fight was first posted on September 7, Bedoya opened as a sizeable favorite at –155 on BetOnline.ag, briefly ticked up to –160, then slid gradually toward even money. In a surprise swing on September 10, his odds flipped all the way to +105—a move likely driven by sharp action on Mullarkey—before correcting back to the current –107.

Mullarkey mirrored that roller coaster: opening around +135, dropping into favorite territory at –125, and ultimately stabilizing around –113 on BetOnline.ag. These fluctuations suggest heavy late money, with bettors chasing value on both sides as news and public sentiment shifted.

Key takeaway: the market expects a razor-thin margin, and any last-minute lineup changes or weight misses could send odds swinging again.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re laying down $1,000 today:

• A $1,000 bet on Jamie Mullarkey at +100 (BetRivers) returns $2,000 total ($1,000 profit).
• A $1,000 bet on Rolando Bedoya at –105 (BetUS) returns $1,952 total ($952 profit).

Roughly speaking, the current odds imply:

• Bedoya has about a 53% chance to win.
• Mullarkey sits around 47%.

Of course, these percentages factor in the sportsbooks’ built-in margin. Still, the lean toward Bedoya is modest—this lightweight scrap could easily tip either way.

Whether you favor Bedoya’s tight boxing and defensive acumen or Mullarkey’s power-punching and takedown resilience, the odds tell one story: expect a competitive, back-and-forth battle. Lock in your picks at the lines that maximize your payout, and get ready for fireworks in Perth.