Danny Barlow vs Djorden Santos: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Danny Barlow vs Djorden Santos Fight Analysis

Event Overview

On Saturday, October 18, 2025, fight fans will tune in for one of the most intriguing preliminary matchups on UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen, streaming live from Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The Middleweight clash between American dynamo Danny Barlow and rising Brazilian contender Djorden Santos is slated to kick off as part of the Preliminary Card at approximately 8:00 PM UTC (1:00 PM PT / 4:00 PM ET). With both athletes eager to make a statement on the world stage, this bout promises fireworks inside the Octagon.

The Fighters at a Glance

• Danny Barlow (9-1-0)
  • Age: 30 | Height: 6'2" (74") | Reach: 7' (79")
  • UFC Debut: Feb. 17, 2024
  • Striking: 51% Sig Strike Accuracy, 5 first-round finishes, 5 KOs
  • Grappling: 0% TD Accuracy (but 100% TD Defense)
  • Style: MMA all-rounder known for crisp boxing and explosive early finishes
  • Recent Form: Coming off a setback (loss via KO/TKO to Sam Patterson on Mar. 1, 2025), Barlow is driven to re-establish himself among the division’s upper echelon.

• Djorden Santos (10-2-0)
  • Age: 27 | Height: 6' (72") | Reach: 6'3.5" (75.5")
  • UFC Debut: Mar. 8, 2025
  • Striking: 43% Sig Strike Accuracy, solid 49% Sig Strike Defense
  • Grappling: 40% TD Accuracy, 87% TD Defense, 4 submission wins
  • Style: Brazilian technician blending takedowns with opportunistic submissions
  • Recent Form: Debuted with a unanimous decision loss to Ozzy Diaz but has showcased a well-rounded game and enviable cardio.

Betting Landscape

Heading into fight night, Danny Barlow is firmly established as the -240 favorite at BetOnline.ag, reflecting both his elite striking output and relentless pressure. In contrast, Djorden Santos carries the +205 underdog tag—an attractive line for those banking on the Brazilian’s submission prowess and improving MMA IQ. Early odds movement suggests bettors respect Barlow’s first-round finishing ability (5 finishes inside Round 1) and his impeccable takedown defense, but Santos’s ground-game upside and resilience cannot be overlooked.

Why This Fight Matters

This bout is much more than a preliminary filler—it represents a crossroads for both men:

• Barlow needs a statement victory to rebound from his lone UFC loss and to stake his claim as a top-15 Middleweight.
• Santos seeks redemption in his sophomore UFC appearance, looking to turn underdog fortune into a signature win that could vault him up the pecking order.

Whether you’re a casual fan tuning in for early-card excitement or a seasoned bettor scouring for value on the odds, Barlow vs Santos promises dynamic shifts in momentum, stylistic intrigue, and the thrilling unpredictability that defines the Octagon. Stay tuned as we break down how these athletes match up striking, wrestling, and strategy in our full fight breakdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Danny Barlow vs Djorden Santos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for de Ridder vs Allen can be found on the de Ridder vs Allen event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Danny Barlow Profile

Age: 30 | Country: United States | Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA striker

• Record & Recent Form
  • Overall Record: 9–1–0
  • Last 3 UFC Bouts:

  1. Loss vs. Sam Patterson (KO/TKO R1 – 3:10) on Mar. 1, 2025
  2. Loss vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Decision) on Aug. 10, 2024
  3. Win vs. Josh Quinlan (KO/TKO R3 – 1:18) on Feb. 17, 2024

• Physical Attributes & Metrics
  • Height: 6’2" (74") | Reach: 7’ (79")
  • Avg. Fight Time: 07:42 (fast finisher)
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 51%
  • Significant Strike Defense: 51%
  • Takedown Accuracy: 0% | Takedown Defense: 100%

• Strengths

  1. Elite Early Finishing: Five first-round finishes in nine wins highlight Barlow’s ability to overwhelm opponents quickly with heavy hands and volume.
  2. Striking Precision & Defense: Over half of his significant strikes land, and he defends 51% of incoming strikes, allowing him to both attack efficiently and evade danger.
  3. Iron-Clad Takedown Defense: Opponents have 0 successful takedowns across all attempts, forcing fights to stay standing where he thrives.

• Weaknesses

  1. Grappling Offense: A 0% takedown accuracy shows a virtually non-existent wrestling threat—if opponents weather early storms, they can take the fight into later rounds.
  2. Recovery from Strike Damage: Two back-to-back losses (one via KO) suggest possible vulnerability to powerful counterstrikes when he commits forward.

Djorden Santos Profile

Age: 27 | Country: Brazil | Fighting Style: Submission-oriented Brazilian technician

• Record & Recent Form
  • Overall Record: 10–2–0
  • Last 1 UFC Bout:

  1. Loss vs. Ozzy Diaz (Unanimous Decision – 3 Rounds) on Mar. 8, 2025
     • Pre-UFC Run: 9–1 with 3 KOs, 4 submissions, showing versatile finishing skills.

• Physical Attributes & Metrics
  • Height: 6’0" (72") | Reach: 6’3.5" (75.5")
  • Avg. Fight Time: 15:00 (full three rounds)
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 43%
  • Significant Strike Defense: 49%
  • Takedown Accuracy: 40% | Takedown Defense: 87%

• Strengths

  1. Balanced Submission Arsenal: Four submission victories demonstrate his knack for capitalizing on grappling exchanges, especially off scramble.
  2. Durability & Cardio: Lasts full three rounds with consistent output, suggesting strong conditioning and mental resilience.
  3. Solid Takedown Game: 40% accuracy and 87% defense indicate he can both initiate ground exchanges and thwart opponent wrestling.

• Weaknesses

  1. Striking Deficit: Only 43% accuracy and a sub-50% defense leave him open to more precise strikers—Barlow’s jab-heavy attack could exploit this gap.
  2. UFC Inexperience: A single Octagon appearance (decision loss) highlights a learning curve against top-level UFC competition.

Head-to-Head Matchup Analysis

• Stand-up Exchange: Barlow holds a clear edge in striking; his accurate, high-output style will test Santos’s sub-50% defense.
• Grappling & Ground Game: Santos is the superior wrestler/submission artist—if he survives early onslaughts, he can drag Barlow into deep waters.
• Pace & Fight Duration: Barlow’s finishes often come early (5 first-round stoppages), while Santos is comfortable pacing through all fifteen minutes.
• Key Factor: Will Santos avoid the early blitz and impose wrestling, or can Barlow secure a quick knockout before takedowns become a threat?

This Middleweight clash is a classic striker vs. grappler storyline, pitting Barlow’s ferocious early attack against Santos’s methodical, submission-driven approach. Understanding these profiles and statistical signatures will guide bettors and fans in anticipating how—and when—this fight unfolds.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen, the Middleweight clash between Danny Barlow and Djorden Santos presents a clear favorite:

• Danny Barlow: –240 (BetOnline.ag)
• Djorden Santos: +205 (BetOnline.ag)

Barlow’s –240 line means he’s the preferred pick by the betting public, while Santos’s +205 tag positions him as the underdog. The gap in these odds highlights the confidence in Barlow’s early-finishing power and elite takedown defense versus Santos’s upside on the mat.

Line Movement & Betting Trends

• Stable Lines on BetOnline.ag
  • Both fighters’ odds opened and remain unchanged as of October 7, 2025.
  • No significant swings or dramatic shifts have been recorded, indicating that sharp money and public bets have balanced early.
• Public Perception
  • Early wagers have largely backed Barlow, attracted by his 5 first-round finishes in 9 UFC victories.
  • Santos’s +205 underdog line has drawn value hunters banking on his 4 submission wins and improved cardio.

Because the odds have stayed put, it seems bookmakers and bettors alike agree on each athlete’s chances. The lack of movement suggests neither late breaking injury news nor a sudden influx of heavy wagers has altered the market.

Implied Probabilities

Based on the current lines, sportsbooks are pricing these fighters as follows:

• Danny Barlow: ~71% chance to win
• Djorden Santos: ~33% chance to win

These probabilities reflect the strength of Barlow’s striking credentials and Santos’s status as a developing UFC talent.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

• $1,000 on Danny Barlow (–240)
  • Payout: $1,416.67 (your $1,000 stake + $416.67 profit)
• $1,000 on Djorden Santos (+205)
  • Payout: $3,050.00 (your $1,000 stake + $2,050.00 profit)

The disparity in returns underscores the risk/reward trade-off: backing the favorite yields a modest return, while betting the underdog offers substantial upside.

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

For this fight, BetOnline.ag stands out as the optimal destination:

• Competitive Odds: –240/+205 mirrors the sharpest available market.
• User Experience: Fast deposits, quick withdrawals, and live line updates.
• Promotions & Lines: Early access to line movements and bonus offers for UFC events.

If you’re placing your wagers today, BetOnline.ag provides the most consistent odds and a trusted platform to manage your bets on both Danny Barlow and Djorden Santos.

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With the lines locked in and the implied probabilities clear, bettors can now decide whether to back the heavy-handed finishing threat of Barlow or take a swing on Santos’s grappling savvy. No major line swings so far mean the market has spoken: Barlow is the favorite, Santos is the value play. Choose your side and tune in on October 18, 2025 at Rogers Arena to see which odds call your shot.