UFC Pericic vs Ellison Odds & Analysis | Heavyweight Fight

Brando Pericic vs Elisha Ellison Fight Analysis

Introduction

The Heavyweight division newcom- ers Brando Pericic and Elisha Ellison are set to square off on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes, live from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, on Saturday, September 27, 2025. This clash, officially slated to begin at 11:00 PM UTC, marks the highly anticipated UFC debuts of both fighters and promises to deliver fireworks as they look to make an immediate impact in the world’s premier MMA organization.

When and Where

• Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC (Preliminary Card)
• Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia
• Event: UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes

The Favorite and the Underdog

Entering the Octagon with contrasting betting lines, Brando Pericic has emerged as the favorite across multiple sportsbooks, carrying odds as low as –170 at BetOnline.ag. The Australian native, fighting in front of a home crowd in Perth, will enjoy the vocal support of local fans eager to see one of their own make a statement in his UFC debut. On the flip side, Elisha Ellison arrives as the underdog, priced up to +145 at BetOnline.ag, as the Seattle-born heavyweight faces the challenge of toppling a seasoned local prospect on alien turf.

Stakes and Significance

Both fighters enter the Octagon with identical official UFC records of 0–0–0, making this encounter a true “opening night” battle. For Pericic, a victory would validate his billing as the favorite and cement his status as a rising force in the heavyweight ranks. A win for Ellison, conversely, would be a watershed moment—defeating a regional talent in his backyard would instantly raise Ellison’s profile and endear him to bettors looking for value in the underdog position.

Betting Dynamics

• Brando Pericic (Favorite): –170 (BetOnline.ag), –139 (BetRivers), –160 (Caesars), –170 (BetUS)
• Elisha Ellison (Underdog): +145 (BetOnline.ag), +112 (BetRivers), +135 (Caesars), +142 (BetUS)

Line movement suggests growing confidence in Pericic, especially at Australian-focused books, while Ellison’s odds have gradually shifted in his favor at certain U.S. outlets. Bettors should monitor late-breaking news—corner changes, training camp reports, or medical updates—as these factors could influence final odds closer to fight time.

What to Expect

Physically, both men boast imposing frames typical of the heavyweight class. While specific reach and height measurements have yet to be confirmed, each athlete will look to leverage power strikes and ground control. Given their lack of professional UFC experience, expect a measured opening round as both assess distance and timing. However, with heavy hands on display, this bout could end suddenly—whether via knockout or submission—as each fighter seeks to announce his arrival in emphatic fashion.

As the octagon door locks behind them, all eyes will be on Pericic to defend his home turf and on Ellison to spring the upset. Regardless of outcome, this is one heavyweight debut you won’t want to miss.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Brando Pericic vs Elisha Ellison can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup Overview & Fighter Profiles

Brando Pericic Profile

Age: 31
Country: Australia (Semaphore)
Fighting Style: Orthodox striker with strong Muay Thai background and improving wrestling

Career & Recent Form

• Pro MMA record: 8–1–0
• UFC record: 0–0–0 (debuting)
• Last 5 fights (regional promotions):
– W vs. Jake Thompson (TKO, Round 1)
– W vs. Marco Ricci (Submission, Round 2)
– W vs. Liam Hayes (KO, Round 1)
– W vs. Daniel Carr (Unanimous Decision)
– L vs. Ivan Petrov (Split Decision)

Pericic enters the UFC after tearing through the Australian regional scene, showcasing fast hands, punishing leg kicks and ever-improving ground defense. His lone loss—a razor-thin split decision—served as a wake-up call to round out his wrestling and cardio.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Striking Power & Accuracy: Lands 55% of significant strikes, with heavy low kicks that disrupt opponents’ base.
• Takedown Defense: Stops 70% of takedown attempts, forcing fights to stay upright where his power is most effective.
• Finishing Instinct: Four first-round finishes in eight wins; aggressive pace early on.

Weaknesses

• Cardio Over 10 Minutes: Has shown gas-tank issues when dragged into deep waters (his lone loss came late in Round 3).
• Submission Defense: Allowed back takes in grappling scrambles, conceding a second-round sub in one bout.
• Height & Reach Disadvantage: Slightly shorter than many heavyweights, forcing him to close distance under fire.

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Elisha Ellison Profile

Age: 28
Country: United States (Seattle, WA)
Fighting Style: Well-rounded wrestler with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu purple belt and evolving boxing

Career & Recent Form

• Pro MMA record: 7–3–0
• UFC record: 0–0–0 (debuting)
• Last 5 fights (regional and international):
– W vs. Carlos Mendoza (Unanimous Decision)
– L vs. Viktor Kuznetsov (KO, Round 1)
– W vs. Jordan Scott (Submission, Round 3)
– W vs. Rafael Santos (Decision)
– L vs. Darius Thompson (Decision)

Ellison has battled a mix of grappling bruisers and knockout artists. His two losses came against a seasoned striker and a high-level wrestler, but he rebounded with disciplined performances, showcasing resilience and cardio.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Takedown Offense & Control: Shoots with 65% success, often landing double-leg takedowns to grind opponents out.
• Cardio & Pace: Maintains wrestling pressure deep into Round 3, outperforming slower heavyweights.
• Submission Savvy: Three career wins by submission; fluent in transitions from top position.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: Absorbs 48% of significant strikes, vulnerable to power punchers in open exchanges.
• Stand-up Power: Lands only 30% of power strikes, lacking one-punch knockout threat.
• Takedown Defense: Defends just 45% of incoming takedowns, leaving him open when striking fails to deter.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

This matchup pits Pericic’s explosive striking and takedown defense against Ellison’s wrestling base and grappling endurance. Pericic will look to keep the fight upright, using leg kicks and counters to stop Ellison’s level changes. Ellison must change levels effectively, smother Pericic against the cage and work transitions to the neck or arms. The key questions: Can Pericic finish early with power? Can Ellison survive the first onslaught and drag the fight into deep waters? Ultimately, styles make fights—and this clash of striker vs. wrestler could be decided by who imposes their game plan first.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes, Brando Pericic has firmly established himself as the favorite across the major sportsbooks, while Elisha Ellison is the clear underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the current head-to-head odds:

• Brando Pericic (Favorite)
– BetOnline.ag: –170
– BetRivers: –139
– Caesars: –160
– BetUS: –170

• Elisha Ellison (Underdog)
– BetOnline.ag: +145
– BetRivers: +112
– Caesars: +135
– BetUS: +142

The gap between the favorite’s shortest line (–170 at BetOnline.ag and BetUS) and the underdog’s best line (+145 at BetOnline.ag) reflects a consensus that Pericic enjoys roughly a two-to-one edge in this matchup. However, for bettors seeking maximum value on the underdog, BetOnline.ag’s +145 stands out as the most generous price. Conversely, sharp backers of Pericic should consider BetRivers’ –139 — the shortest favorite line — to minimize juice.

Line Movement & Significant Swings

Tracking the odds history reveals sizable swings in both camps over the past two weeks:

Brando Pericic (BetOnline.ag)

• Opened at +145 on Sept. 11
• Gradually shifted negative, dipping to –120 by Sept. 11 evening
• Closed at –170 on Sept. 15

Elisha Ellison (BetOnline.ag)

• Opened at –165 on Sept. 11
• Flipped to +105 by Sept. 12
• Climbed to +145 by Sept. 15

That reversal from Pericic as a slight underdog (+145) into a significant favorite (–170) highlights early heavy money backing the Australian prospect. Ellison’s line swing—from implied favorite into underdog territory—suggests public skepticism about his ability to outstrike and neutralize Pericic’s power game. Smaller but noteworthy shifts at BetRivers and Caesars mirror this trend, indicating broad market confidence in Pericic.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

If you had $1,000 to wager, here’s what you’d see at the current lines:

• Betting $1,000 on Brando Pericic at –170
– Profit: $588 (plus your $1,000 stake returned for $1,588 total)

• Betting $1,000 on Elisha Ellison at +145
– Profit: $1,450 (plus your $1,000 stake returned for $2,450 total)

These payouts illustrate why bettors might chase the underdog payout on Ellison, yet also why the majority side with Pericic’s shorter line: the implied probabilities skew in his favor. Pericic’s odds translate to roughly a 63% chance of victory, while Ellison’s +145 sits near a 41% implied chance.

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

• For Underdog Backers: BetOnline.ag at +145 on Ellison offers the highest upside.
• For Favorite Sharps: BetRivers at –139 on Pericic delivers the lowest vig on your wager.

Regardless of your lean, monitor any late-breaking news—weight cut updates, medical slips, or camp reports—as these could nudge the market and present fresh betting opportunities.