Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny - AI generated fight pick

Jake Matthews is the more statistically efficient fighter in this matchup. He is 8 years younger than Neil Magny, which is significant in the welterweight division, where fighters over 35 have a historically lower win rate against opponents in their prime. Matthews holds a higher takedown defense (68% vs 54%) and significant strike defense (61% vs 52%), both of which are key against Magny’s wrestling-heavy clinch game. While Magny has a major reach advantage (80" vs 73"), his recent performances show a decline, with three stoppage losses in his last five fights, including being finished by rising strikers. Matthews has a higher finish rate in the first round (4 vs 0) and is more dangerous early. In historical matchups, fighters with Matthews’ age, defense, and recent win rate outperform aging, volume-based veterans like Magny, especially when the older fighter’s takedown defense is below 60%. Given these factors and Magny’s recent susceptibility to power and pressure, Matthews is the more likely winner, though Magny’s experience and reach make this a competitive fight.