Winner: Oban Elliott
Confidence Score: 68Oban Elliott is the more battle-tested and proven UFC welterweight, with a 12-3 record and recent wins over solid competition. He holds statistical edges in significant strike accuracy (48% vs 44%), strike defense (60% vs 59%), and has a higher takedown accuracy (44% vs 50%, but with more UFC experience against better wrestlers). While Jonathan Micallef has a reach advantage (77" vs 72"), Elliott's recent form, including a KO/TKO win over Bassil Hafez and a decision win over Preston Parsons, shows he can handle tough, grinding fights. Micallef has a shorter average fight time, suggesting he may be more aggressive early, but Elliott's ability to go the distance and maintain output is a strong advantage. Historically, fighters with Elliott's UFC experience and defensive stats outperform less-tested newcomers, even when giving up reach. Unless Micallef can leverage his reach for a quick finish, Elliott's experience, defense, and ability to win decisions give him the edge.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.