Winner: Valentina Shevchenko
Confidence Score: 65Valentina Shevchenko holds key advantages in this matchup. She has a significant reach (4 inches in arm, 2 inches in leg) and size advantage, which historically leads to higher win rates in women's title fights at flyweight. Her takedown accuracy (60%) and defense (76%) outpace Zhang's (46% accuracy, 74% defense), and Shevchenko's 63% significant strike defense is notably higher than Zhang's 54%. While Zhang is in great form with recent wins over top strawweights and a win over Tatiana Suarez at flyweight, Shevchenko's experience at 125 lbs, her ability to control distance, and her championship composure give her the edge. Historically, fighters moving up in weight against established champions with reach and grappling prowess like Shevchenko have struggled. However, Shevchenko's recent close fights and age (37) add some risk, making this less than a lock, but still the most probable outcome.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.
