Winner: Magomed Ankalaev
Confidence Score: 97Magomed Ankalaev is a proven, elite light heavyweight with a 21-1-1 record, 11 KO wins, and experience at the championship level. His stats show a well-rounded MMA skillset: 53% significant strike accuracy, 57% sig strike defense, and 88% takedown defense, which are all elite for the division. He is a physically imposing fighter at 205 lbs with a 75-inch reach and has consistently beaten top contenders. Alice Pereira, despite being ranked #1 in the Women's Bantamweight Division, is a 19-year-old debutant with no significant UFC stats, no measurable striking or grappling metrics, and her only UFC fight resulted in a split decision loss. Additionally, she is from a different weight class and would be severely undersized and inexperienced compared to Ankalaev. Historically, fighters with Ankalaev's profile (age, reach, experience, and championship pedigree) have an overwhelming win rate against debuting, much smaller, and less-tested opponents. All data points to Ankalaev as the overwhelming favorite.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 can be found on the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 event page.