Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee UFC Betting Odds & Analysis

Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee fight analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, September 6, 2025, two promising welterweights will collide on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho, live from the Accor Arena in Paris, France. Slated to begin at approximately 3:00 PM ET (19:00 local time), this bout pits undefeated French debutant Axel Sola against veteran Irish slugger Rhys McKee. As the opening act of a stacked evening, fans in attendance — and millions watching worldwide — can expect fireworks when these two contrasting styles meet under the bright lights of the French capital.

When & Where

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho
• Date: Saturday, September 6, 2025
• Arena: Accor Arena, Paris, France
• Local Start Time: 19:00 CET
• U.S. Broadcast: Early evening slots across major networks and streaming platforms

The Fighters

Axel Sola
• Age: 27, Welterweight newcomer making his UFC debut
• Nationality: France
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA prospect with regional accolades
• Record: 0-0 inside the Octagon (professional record unblemished at regional level)

Rhys McKee
• Age: 29, seasoned UFC competitor
• Nationality: Ireland
• Fighting Style: Heavy-handed striker boasting 11 knockouts in 14 career wins
• UFC Record: 14-6-1 (1 NC), last seen scoring a first-round TKO via doctor’s stoppage on April 5, 2025

Favorite vs. Underdog

Oddsmakers have installed Axel Sola as the clear favorite, with moneyline odds hovering between -135 and -150 across top sportsbooks like FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings. The promotion’s French hopeful is expected to capitalize on home-cage energy and his unknown game plan to outpoint or finish McKee.
Conversely, Rhys McKee enters as the underdog at around +110 to +120. Despite his extensive UFC résumé and devastating power, McKee faces a significant challenge in handling Sola’s youthful athleticism and the buoyant home crowd. However, McKee’s championship-caliber knockout prowess means he is always one big strike away from pulling off a spectacular upset.

Stakes and Storylines

• Sola’s UFC Debut: A victory propels the 27-year-old Frenchman into immediate consideration in the crowded welterweight division.
• McKee’s Redemption Arc: After alternating wins and losses in his last four outings, the 29-year-old Irishman needs a statement performance to remain relevant among UFC’s 170-pound elite.
• Home Advantage: Fighting in Paris for the first time under the UFC banner, Sola will lean on the electric French fanbase to fuel a potential highlight-reel debut.

With momentum, styles, and odds all pointing in different directions, Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee promises to be one of the most intriguing undercards in recent UFC history. Whether you’re backing the home-town hero or banking on McKee’s veteran savvy and knockout power, this welterweight showdown could steal the show before the headliners even step into the Octagon.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Axel Sola: The French Phenom

Age: 27
Country: France
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA prospect

Axel Sola makes his UFC debut on September 6, 2025, in front of a passionate Parisian crowd. Though he enters the Octagon with a 0-0 UFC record, he earned this opportunity by compiling an undefeated regional ledger, showcasing crisp striking combinations, solid wrestling control, and improving submission craft. At 27 years old, Sola possesses the athletic prime to combine speed, cardio, and power. His exact reach and height measurements at the UFC level remain unconfirmed, but he reportedly leverages long-range kicks and fluid footwork.

Recent Form:
• No UFC bouts to date.
• Undefeated on the European circuit (record not disclosed).
• Earned this matchup after dominating his last three regional opponents via stoppage.

Key Strengths:

• Home-Field Advantage: Fighting in Paris’s Accor Arena will amplify his confidence and pressure McKee.
• Unknown Arsenal: Opponents have little tape on his Octagon-level striking and takedown entries.
• Youth & Durability: At 27, fresh legs and a presumably high gas tank favor late-fight success.

Potential Weaknesses:

• UFC Inexperience: First Octagon appearance carries adjustment risk to crowd, cage size, and pace.
• Unproven Defense: No public sig-strike defense or takedown-defense metrics at UFC level.
• Pressure of Expectation: As the favorite, a slow start could magnify stress under lights.

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Rhys McKee: The Irish Powerhouse

Age: 29
Country: Ireland
Fighting Style: Heavy-handed striker with knockout pedigree

A five-year UFC veteran, Rhys McKee boasts a 14-6-1 pro record, including 11 KO victories and 8 first-round stoppages. He fights out of Ballymena, Ireland, and has displayed iron-chinned resilience even in defeats. McKee’s striking is built on volume and power—he lands significant strikes at a 44% accuracy rate and defends 46% of incoming shots. Though his wrestling offense is virtually nonexistent (0% TD accuracy), he scrambles well and defends takedowns at 41%, forcing opponents to keep the fight standing.

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts):
• Win vs Daniel Frunza (Apr. 5, 2025) – TKO (Doctor’s stoppage), Round 1, 5:00
• Loss vs Chidi Njokuani (Mar. 30, 2024) – Split Decision, 3 Rounds
• Loss vs Ange Loosa (Sep. 2, 2023) – Unanimous Decision, 3 Rounds
• Loss vs Alex Morono (Nov. 14, 2020) – Decision, 3 Rounds
• Loss vs Khamzat Chimaev (Jul. 25, 2020) – KO/TKO, Round 1, 3:11

Key Strengths:

• Knockout Power: 79% of his wins come via KO/TKO, always a threat for a one-punch finish.
• Experience: Five UFC fights provide a seasoned Octagon IQ, especially under pressure.
• Striking Defense: Acceptable at 46%, enough to mitigate part of an opponent’s offense.

Potential Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent Form: 1–4 over his last five outings suggests lapses in cardio or game-planning.
• Takedown Deficiency: A 0% takedown success rate means he cannot threaten on the mat.
• Grappling Defense: Defends only 41% of takedown attempts, vulnerable if Sola showcases wrestling.

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Styles Clash & Key Dynamics

• Striker vs. Mystery: McKee’s proven KO threat faces Sola’s uncharted arsenal.
• Experience vs. Momentum: Veteran savvy battles home-crowd adrenaline.
• Tactical Battle: If Sola pressures the grappling exchanges, he can expose McKee’s zeros in takedown offense and low defense metrics. Conversely, McKee’s power and pace could overwhelm an Octagon rookie who hasn’t yet proven his gas tank under UFC’s brighter lights.

This clash of youthful momentum and veteran firepower makes Axel Sola vs. Rhys McKee a must-watch welterweight showdown on the Paris card. Choose wisely: back the home-hero’s unknown upside or the Irishman’s proven knockout arsenal.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Lines

As of the latest updates on September 3, 2025, Axel Sola is the clear favorite over Rhys McKee. Here’s a snapshot of the consensus moneylines across top sportsbooks:

• Axel Sola: –135 to –150
  • Caesars: –130 (best line for Sola bettors)
  • BetRivers: –143
  • FanDuel: –150
  • DraftKings: –135

• Rhys McKee: +110 to +120
  • FanDuel / BetUS / DraftKings: +118–+120 (best line sits at +120)
  • BetMGM / Caesars: +110

Difference & Underdog:

• Sola’s odds imply he’s roughly a 58% favorite, while McKee’s +120 line implies around a 46% chance.
• The two fighters sit about 255 points apart (–140 vs. +115 midpoint), making McKee the clear underdog.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On:

• Back Sola at Caesars for the shallowest juice (–130).
• Back McKee at FanDuel or DraftKings for the juiciest return (+120).

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Line Movement & Historical Trends

Tracking odds movement reveals how the market and sharp action have shaped this fight card:

Axel Sola (Favorite) – BetOnline.ag Snapshot

• Aug. 31, 08:41 ET: –132
• Aug. 31, 19:57 ET: –140
• Sep. 01, 00:10 ET: –145 (peak juice)
• Sep. 02, 04:05 ET: –129 (softest line)
• Sep. 03, 07:36 ET: –140

Rhys McKee (Underdog) – BetOnline.ag Snapshot

• Aug. 31, 08:41 ET: +112
• Aug. 31, 19:57 ET: +120 (peak underdog value)
• Sep. 01, 18:16 ET: +116
• Sep. 02, 04:05 ET: +109 (lowest value)
• Sep. 03, 07:36 ET: +120

Key Swings:

• Sola’s line ranged from –129 to –145 (a 16-point swing), indicating sharp money on both sides.
• McKee’s odds shifted from +109 to +130 (a 21-point swing on DraftKings) as bettors fluctuated between fading the favorite and backing the puncher’s chance.

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Payout & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 riding on either fighter today:

• $1,000 on Axel Sola (–140)
  • Payout: $1,714.29 (profit of $714.29)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~58%

• $1,000 on Rhys McKee (+120)
  • Payout: $2,200 (profit of $1,200)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~46%

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Summary: Sola’s moderate favorite status and home-cage energy have kept his line in the –130 to –150 range, while McKee’s knockout upside and value backing an underdog have pushed his odds as high as +130 in some books. Sharp bettors will weigh Sola’s shorter juice at Caesars against McKee’s higher payout at FanDuel or DraftKings when deciding where to place their thousand-dollar wagers.