Winner: Kelvin Gastelum
Confidence Score: 80Kelvin Gastelum holds key advantages in this matchup: he has more UFC experience, a better level of competition faced, and superior defensive stats. His significant strike defense (57%) and takedown defense (59%) are notably higher than Stoltzfus' (47% and 47%). Gastelum also has a proven five-round cardio and durability, as shown by his average fight time (13:40) compared to Stoltzfus (9:18). While Stoltzfus has dangerous finishing ability, Gastelum has only been finished by elite competition. Historically, fighters with Gastelum's combination of boxing and defensive wrestling have a high success rate against Muay Thai-based fighters with lower takedown defense and less UFC experience. Recent form for both is mixed, but Gastelum's losses have come against higher-level opposition. Overall, Gastelum's experience, defensive skills, and proven ability to handle pressure make him the more reliable pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.