Winner: Alessandro Costa
Confidence Score: 85Alessandro Costa is a proven UFC flyweight with a 14-4 record, strong finishing ability (4 KOs, 6 submissions, 8 first-round finishes), and a well-rounded skill set highlighted by elite takedown defense (91%) and solid striking metrics (48% accuracy, 58% defense). He has already demonstrated he can finish UFC-level opposition and has a significant experience edge. Alden Coria is making his UFC debut with no available UFC stats or high-level experience, which is a major red flag historically—debuting fighters with no UFC experience, especially against established, well-rounded opponents, tend to lose at a high rate. Costa's jiu-jitsu background, durability, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place (due to his strong takedown defense and submission prowess) make him a clear favorite. The matchup trends and statistical profile of Costa against debutants in the flyweight division strongly favor the experienced, proven UFC fighter.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.