Winner: Valter Walker
Confidence Score: 78Valter Walker presents a strong stylistic and statistical advantage over Mohammed Usman. Walker is significantly younger (27 vs 36), which is a major historical indicator of success in heavyweight matchups. He has a much higher finish rate (7 first-round finishes, 67% takedown accuracy, and 49% significant strike accuracy) and a far shorter average fight time, indicating more efficient and decisive victories. Walker's offensive grappling is a key edge—his takedown accuracy (67%) dwarfs Usman's (14%), and while his takedown defense is low (0%), Usman does not have a strong offensive wrestling game to exploit this. Usman's recent form is poor with three consecutive losses and low output (39% sig strike accuracy, 14% takedown accuracy), and his defensive stats (51% sig strike defense, 67% takedown defense) are mediocre for the division. Historically, fighters with Walker's age, finishing ability, and offensive metrics win the majority of similar matchups, especially against older, less active heavyweights on losing streaks. Walker's UFC momentum, superior athletic profile, and more dangerous finishing ability make him the clear pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Valter Walker vs Mohammed Usman can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.