Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli: UFC Odds, Analysis & Prediction

Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli fight analysis

Fight Overview

The featherweight showdown between Ricardo Ramos and Kaan Ofli is set to headline the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot on October 11, 2025, at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Fans can catch the action live starting at 23:00 UTC, as the two dynamic strikers square off in a pivotal matchup that could shake up the featherweight division. Rio de Janeiro, known for its electric MMA atmosphere, will play host to what promises to be a tactical chess match between a seasoned Brazilian submission specialist and an up-and-coming Australian freestyle wrestler.

Fighter Profiles

• Ricardo Ramos (17-7-0, Age 29, Campinas, Brazil)

  • Style: Jiu-Jitsu
  • Height: 5’9” (69 in) | Reach: 6’0” (72 in)
  • UFC Debut: Feb. 4, 2017
    Ramos boasts a well-rounded arsenal, combining slick BJJ transitions with evolving striking. He holds 7 submission victories and 4 knockouts on his 17-win resume, and enters this contest looking to rebound from a razor-thin unanimous decision loss to Chepe Mariscal in March 2025.

• Kaan Ofli (12-4-1, Age 31, Melbourne, Australia)

  • Style: Freestyle
  • Height: 5’7” (67 in) | Reach: 5’6” (66 in)
  • UFC Debut: Aug. 24, 2024
    Ofli has impressed early in his UFC tenure, showcasing 6 first-round finishes (2 KOs, 4 subs) and a relentless pace. Although he dropped back-to-back decisions to Muhammad Naimov and KO’d by Mairon Santos Alves, his grappling pedigree and high fight IQ make him a dangerous underdog.

Betting Odds and Market Implications

According to BetOnline.ag, Ricardo Ramos enters as the -205 favorite (American odds) while Kaan Ofli sits at +175. The line movement over the past 48 hours reflects growing confidence in Ramos’ ability to dictate where the fight goes – striking versus takedown exchanges. Ofli’s price has shortened from +205 to +175 as bettors recognize his submission threat and unrelenting pace, but Ramos’ superior wrestling defence (70% takedown defence) and seven-year UFC tenure keep him in firm control of the market.

What to Expect

This clash epitomizes a stylistic crossroads. Ramos will look to exploit his 58% takedown accuracy to keep the fight grounded, neutralizing Ofli’s freestyle wrestling. Conversely, Ofli’s 46% significant strike accuracy and six first-round finishes suggest he’s willing to engage on the feet and hunt submissions from every position. With the crowd roaring behind Ramos and the underdog fervor building for Ofli, this contest has “Fight of the Night” potential. Bettors and analysts alike will be watching key metrics—striking differential, takedown success, and cardio—to decide whether to side with the experienced Brazilian or the hungry Aussie.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.

Matchup & Individual Profiles

Ricardo Ramos: The Jiu-Jitsu Specialist

Age: 29
Country: Brazil (Campinas)
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Ricardo Ramos brings a well-rounded ground game to the featherweight division. Since his UFC debut in February 2017, he has compiled a 17-7-0 professional record, including 7 submission wins and 4 knockouts, showcasing his ability to finish fights in multiple ways.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Mar 1, 2025 vs. Chepe Mariscal – Loss by Unanimous Decision
• Aug 17, 2024 vs. Joshua Culibao – Win by Split Decision
• Mar 23, 2024 vs. Julian Erosa – Loss by Submission (R1, 2:15)
• Sep 23, 2023 vs. Charles Jourdain – Loss by Submission (R1, 3:12)
• Jun 18, 2022 vs. Danny Chavez – Win by KO/TKO (R1, 1:12)

Ramos has alternated wins and losses in recent outings, with his lone victory over Culibao a razor-thin split decision. Two submission defeats in 2023–24 underscore a vulnerability when facing astute grapplers.

Strengths

• Takedown Prowess: 58% takedown accuracy and 70% takedown defense enable Ramos to dictate where the fight takes place.
• Submission Threat: Seven career subs, with slick transitions to arm‐triangles and rear‐naked chokes.
• Early Finisher: Eight first-round finishes indicate he can end the night quickly when he imposes his will.

Weaknesses

• Striking Efficiency: 36% significant strike accuracy is below division average, limiting his output on the feet.
• Defense Lapses: 55% significant strike defense means nearly half of opponents’ strikes land clean.
• Decision Durability: Three of his last five fights went the distance—and two ended in losses.

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Kaan Ofli: The Freestyle Finisher

Age: 31
Country: Australia (Melbourne)
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling / Submission Grappling

A relative newcomer to the UFC, Kaan Ofli has electrified audiences with his relentless pace and finishing instincts. His 12-4-1 record includes 6 first-round finishes (2 KOs, 4 submissions), highlighting his explosiveness.

Recent Form (Last 4 UFC Fights)

• Feb 1, 2025 vs. Muhammad Naimov – Loss by Unanimous Decision
• Aug 24, 2024 vs. Mairon Santos Alves – Loss by KO/TKO (R2, 1:30)
• (Prior to UFC) 12-2-1 with multiple early‐round stoppages in regional promotions

Though of late he’s on a two-fight skid inside the Octagon, Ofli’s resume is packed with high‐octane finishes.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy & Defense: 46% accuracy and 60% defense give him an edge in striking exchanges.
• Submission Creativity: Four UFC stoppages via choke or joint lock reflect dynamic grappling transitions.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 10:45 shows he can maintain a relentless tempo deep into the second and third rounds.

Weaknesses

• Wrestling Yield: Official takedown stats sit at 0% accuracy and defense—suggesting he neither pursues nor defends takedowns consistently.
• Experience Gap: Only two UFC outings mean he’s still adjusting to elite-level competition.
• Late-Round Durability: No UFC fights have gone beyond Round 3 for Ofli, leaving questions about his gas tank if the fight stalls.

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Matchup Insight:
This clash pits Ramos’ grappling pedigree and takedown control against Ofli’s finishing instincts and striking efficiency. Ramos will aim to smother the Aussie on the mat, while Ofli must keep the fight upright to capitalize on his superior stand-up and creativity in scramble situations. Placing your bet? Look to key metrics—takedown success, striking differential and endurance—to decide who emerges with momentum in this pivotal featherweight encounter.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As of October 1, 2025, the betting market at BetOnline.ag lists:

• Ricardo Ramos at -205 (favorite)
• Kaan Ofli at +175 (underdog)

That spread implies Ramos is expected to win more than twice as often as Ofli, making the Brazilian the clear book favorite. Ofli’s +175 tag, however, still offers an attractive return for risk-tolerant bettors who believe the Australian can spring the upset.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the line shifts over the past 48 hours reveals some intriguing swings:

• Ricardo Ramos

  • Sept. 30, 11:59 UTC: -210
  • Sept. 30, 16:31 UTC: -240 (strong early favorite money)
  • Oct. 1, 08:41 UTC: -205 (trimmed back as the market balanced)

• Kaan Ofli

  • Sept. 30, 11:59 UTC: +180
  • Sept. 30, 16:31 UTC: +205 (sharp action on the Aussie)
  • Oct. 1, 08:41 UTC: +175 (underdog money pulling the line in)

Key takeaway: Ramos initially attracted heavy money, moving him from -210 down to -240. Bettors then recognized Ofli’s submission upside and value, pushing his price from +205 to +175 while pulling Ramos back to -205. This tug-of-war suggests smart money is on both sides, but slightly more support has come in for the underdog to close the gap.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

Based on odds competitiveness, transparency, and line stability, BetOnline.ag remains the top pick for this matchup. Their fluctuation window has been tight, and they consistently offer quicker line adjustments than many offshore books. If you’re shopping for the best value between Ramos and Ofli, BetOnline.ag’s current prices are among the sharpest in the market.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet Payout & Implied Probability

| Fighter | Odds | Payout on $1,000 Bet | Implied Win Probability | | -------------- | ----- | --------------------- | ----------------------- | | Ricardo Ramos | -205 | $1,487.80 (total return) | 67.2% | | Kaan Ofli | +175 | $2,750.00 (total return) | 36.4% |

• If you wager $1,000 on Ramos at -205, your winning return would be $487.80 plus your $1,000 stake (total $1,487.80).
• If you risk $1,000 on Ofli at +175, you’d pocket $1,750 in profit, for a $2,750 total return.

These figures underscore the classic favorite/underdog dynamic. Ramos’ higher implied probability (67.2%) comes at a cost of a smaller profit margin, while Ofli’s underdog status (36.4% implied) offers a substantially larger payout for bettors willing to back the upset.

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Whether you lean toward Ramos’ experience and grappling control or Ofli’s finishing flair and value as a +175 underdog, understanding the line movement, payout structure, and implied probabilities will help you make a more informed wager.