Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira - AI generated fight pick

Alexander Hernandez is the younger fighter by 8 years (32 vs 40), which is a significant factor in lightweight matchups. He has a slightly higher significant strike defense (57% vs 56%) and notably better takedown defense (72% vs 58%), which is important given Ferreira's grappling background. Hernandez also averages more first-round finishes, indicating early explosiveness. Ferreira has shown durability and recently scored two KO/TKO wins, but age and recent activity favor Hernandez. Historically, fighters in their early 30s with a strong wrestling base and superior takedown defense have performed well against older, volume-striking grapplers. Both fighters have similar recent records, but Hernandez's physical advantages and defensive stats give him the edge. No major injuries or camp changes are reported for either fighter, and betting odds are expected to be close. The pick is Hernandez, but with moderate confidence due to Ferreira's finishing ability and experience.