Winner: Charlie Campbell
Confidence Score: 62Charlie Campbell is the more proven and efficient striker in this matchup, with a significant edge in striking accuracy (54% vs 46%) and defense (55% vs 46%). He also has the better takedown defense (71% vs 67%) and is more effective in offensive wrestling (40% takedown accuracy vs 13%). While Tom Nolan is younger and has a slight reach advantage, his takedown game is underdeveloped and his striking defense is a concern. Historically, fighters with Campbell's striking metrics and wrestling defense have prevailed over younger, taller opponents who lack grappling depth. Campbell's recent performances, including a dominant win over Trevor Peek, suggest he is peaking and has the tools to neutralize Nolan's length and volume. Nolan's path to victory is a high-variance knockout, but Campbell's durability and efficiency make him the more reliable pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.