Winner: Cody Gibson
Confidence Score: 62Cody Gibson holds a notable edge in key areas for this matchup. He is significantly larger for the weight class, with a 3-inch height, 2-inch arm reach, and 2-inch leg reach advantage over Aoriqileng. Gibson's experience is also a factor, being 6 years older and having fought at a higher level for longer, which often translates to better fight IQ and composure. Statistically, Gibson's takedown defense (70%) and significant strike defense (58%) are both considerably better than Aoriqileng's (58% and 49%, respectively), meaning he is less likely to be controlled or outstruck over three rounds. Both fighters are coming off losses, but Gibson's overall defensive metrics and ability to mix in submissions (6 submission wins vs. Aoriqileng's 1) give him more paths to victory. Historically, fighters with Gibson's size and defensive profile in the Bantamweight division win a majority of similar matchups, especially against opponents with Aoriqileng's offensive but defensively porous style. While Aoriqileng is younger and more active, Gibson's advantages in size, defense, and grappling make him the more likely winner, though the pick is not high confidence due to Gibson's age and recent form.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Cody Gibson vs Aoriqileng can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for de Ridder vs Allen can be found on the de Ridder vs Allen event page.