Winner: Roman Kopylov
Confidence Score: 61Roman Kopylov is the pick due to his superior striking output, higher knockout rate (12 KOs in 14 wins), and slightly better significant strike defense (53% vs 51%). While Gregory Rodrigues is a dangerous grappler with a high takedown defense (90%) and solid finishing ability, Kopylov's takedown defense (88%) is strong enough to keep this fight standing where he holds the edge. Both fighters have similar recent form and physical attributes, but historically, fighters with Kopylov's striking accuracy and KO rate tend to outperform grapplers with Rodrigues' profile in similar matchups at middleweight. The data shows that ranked strikers with high KO rates and comparable takedown defense are successful against grapplers who are coming off recent knockout losses. While it's a competitive matchup, Kopylov's style and statistical edge in striking make him the more probable winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.
