Bo Nickal vs Rodolfo Vieira: UFC 322 Odds & Pick

Bo Nickal vs Rodolfo Vieira fight analysis

Get ready for a thrilling Middleweight scrap as Bo Nickal takes on Rodolfo Vieira on the preliminary card of UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev. This bout is slated for Sunday, November 16, 2025, with the first preliminary fights kicking off at 1:00 AM UTC (8:00 PM ET on November 15), live from the iconic Madison Square Garden in New York, New York, USA. Although not a title fight, this clash carries significant ramifications for both athletes as they look to climb the stacked Middleweight ranks.

Bo Nickal enters this matchup as the favorite, with sportsbooks listing him around –220 (BetOnline.ag) to –225 (Bovada). Nickal (7-1-0) burst onto the UFC scene in March 2023 and swiftly amassed a five-fight win streak, showcasing his relentless wrestling pedigree and devastating ground-and-pound. His four submission victories and two knockouts underline a versatile finisher who never hesitates to pressure opponents. Despite suffering his first professional loss to Reinier de Ridder in May 2025 via second-round TKO, Nickal’s overall résumé—highlighted by a 53% takedown accuracy, 100% takedown defense, and a 59% striking accuracy—still paints him as a dominant force in his division.

In stark contrast stands Rodolfo Vieira, the underdog at +185 (both BetOnline.ag and Bovada). The 35-year-old Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion turned UFC contender boasts an 11-3-0 record, with a remarkable nine submission wins—six of which came in the opening round. Vieira’s mat wizardry is complemented by an unblemished 100% takedown defense and a solid 56% striking accuracy, but his transition to MMA has occasionally left him vulnerable to more seasoned strikers, as seen in his unanimous decision loss to Andre Petroski in February 2025. Still, his ability to control grappling exchanges and hunt for the finish at every turn makes him a dangerous adversary for anyone on the roster.

Why This Fight Matters

• Style showdown: Nickal’s wrestling versus Vieira’s BJJ creates a classic chess match on the mat.
• Redemption arc: Both men are coming off losses that exposed key holes in their games—Nickal to de Ridder’s ground and pound, Vieira to Petroski’s takedown stuffing.
• Division implications: A win for either fighter could vault them into the Top 15 conversation, setting up more high-profile matchups in 2026.

As you prepare your picks and study the odds, remember that while Bo Nickal’s power and athleticism have made him a public favorite, Rodolfo Vieira’s submission pedigree and veteran savvy can never be underestimated. Expect fireworks—whether in the wrestling clinch, striking exchanges, or on the canvas—as these two elite grapplers vie for momentum early on UFC 322’s action-packed night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Bo Nickal vs Rodolfo Vieira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

In this Middleweight clash, Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira bring contrasting backgrounds and skill sets into the Octagon. Below we dive deep into each fighter’s profile, recent form, and statistical strengths and weaknesses.

Bo Nickal Profile

• Age: 29
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Wrestler

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• May 3, 2025: Loss to Reinier de Ridder (KO/TKO, R2 1:53)
• Nov. 16, 2024: Win over Paul Craig (Decision – Unanimous)
• Apr. 13, 2024: Win over Cody Brundage (Submission, R2 3:38)
• Jul. 8, 2023: Win over Val Woodburn (KO/TKO, R1 0:38)
• Mar. 4, 2023: Win over Jamie Pickett (Submission, R1 2:54)

Statistical Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (53%): Nickal successfully converts more than half of his takedown attempts, showcasing elite wrestling entries.
• Takedown Defense (100%): He has never been taken down in the UFC, underlining his base control and sprawl ability.
• Early Finishing Ability: Five of seven UFC wins have come before the second round, reflecting lethal top pressure and submission setups.
• Striking Efficiency (59%): High significant strike accuracy indicates he picks his spots well, landing precision shots to close distance.

Key Weaknesses

• Durability vs. Heavy Ground & Pound: His lone loss came via strikes against de Ridder, suggesting potential vulnerability when fighters neutralize his wrestling and strike in top position.
• Striking Volume: While accurate, Nickal’s output can dip when he’s not in wrestling range, giving opponents breathing room between entries.

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Rodolfo Vieira Profile

• Age: 35
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Aug. 2, 2025: Win over Tresean Gore (Decision – Unanimous)
• Feb. 15, 2025: Loss to Andre Petroski (Decision – Unanimous)
• Feb. 10, 2024: Win over Armen Petrosyan (Submission, R1 4:48)
• Apr. 29, 2023: Win over Cody Brundage (Submission, R2 1:28)
• Jun. 25, 2022: Loss to Chris Curtis (Decision – Unanimous)

Statistical Strengths

• Submission Expertise (82% of wins): Nine of eleven victories via submission—six in the first round—highlight world-class grappling transitions and choke setups.
• Takedown Defense (100%): Like Nickal, Vieira has never conceded a takedown in the UFC, relying on balance and clinch control.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (56%): He lands more than half of his strike attempts, often as entries into grappling exchanges.

Key Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (23%): Attempts to bring fights to the mat succeed less than one-quarter of the time, potentially stalling his most dangerous avenue.
• Pace & Cardio: A 09:43 average fight time suggests slower starts; opponents can build confidence in striking range if early grappling fails.
• Striking Defense (52%): Just over half of incoming significant strikes are defended, opening him to volume strikers who can keep him at range.

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Style Contrast and Tactical Outlook

• Wrestling vs. BJJ: Nickal’s high-volume, chain-wrestling approach will test Vieira’s takedown defense and defensive grappling.
• Submission Risk: Should Vieira successfully thwart wrestling entries, he can threaten with guillotines, armbars, and lapel chokes in clinch scenarios.
• Striking Opportunities: Both athletes have above-average striking accuracy, but Nickal’s ability to mix level changes could create openings for knees and uppercuts.

This matchup is a true chess match: a young, athletic wrestler with two-way success against a seasoned submission ace with a polished guard. Expect the fight to hinge on who can impose their game plan first—Nickal’s relentless takedowns or Vieira’s guard exams—and who can adapt when their primary strength is neutralized.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC 322’s prelims, Bo Nickal is the clear favorite, with the consensus odds sitting at:

• –220 (BetOnline.ag)
• –225 (Bovada)

Meanwhile, Rodolfo Vieira carries underdog status at:

• +185 (BetOnline.ag)
• +185 (Bovada)

That gap—roughly a 400-point swing between favorite and underdog—reflects public confidence in Nickal’s wrestling pedigree and recent performances. Bettors backing Vieira at +185 stand to win $1,850 on a $1,000 wager (returning $2,850 total), while a $1,000 stake on Nickal at –220 yields $454.55 in profit (total return of $1,454.55).

From a value standpoint, BetOnline.ag offers slightly better terms for Nickal (–220 vs. Bovada’s –225), making it the best sportsbook to lock in the favorite. For Vieira backers, both books are identical at +185, so you can shop for extras like sign-up bonuses or reload offers.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at the odds history reveals gradual but notable shifts over the past week:

• Bo Nickal (BetOnline.ag)
  • Oct. 29, 21:27 UTC: –200
  • Oct. 29, 22:00 UTC: –180 (public money leans on Nickal early)
  • Oct. 30, 00:00 UTC: –190
  • Oct. 30, 18:00 UTC: –205
  • Nov. 3, 08:28 UTC: –220

• Rodolfo Vieira (BetOnline.ag)
  • Oct. 29, 21:27 UTC: +170
  • Oct. 29, 22:00 UTC: +155 (sharp bettors tested the line)
  • Oct. 29, 23:20 UTC: +170
  • Oct. 30, 00:00 UTC: +165
  • Oct. 30, 18:00 UTC: +175
  • Nov. 3, 08:28 UTC: +185

Key takeaways:

• Nickal’s line has steadily slid from –200 to –220, indicating sustained betting interest and possibly sharp money reinforcing his favorite status.
• Vieira’s line has drifted outward from +155 to +185, suggesting either public reluctance to back the veteran or bookmakers pushing the price to mitigate liability.

While neither fighter saw dramatic overnight pushes, the consistent drift—especially Vieira’s growing underdog price—underscores the market’s growing confidence gap.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you’re sizing up a $1,000 wager:

• Bo Nickal (–220)
  • Profit: ~$454.55
  • Total Payout: ~$1,454.55
  • Implied Win Probability: ~69%

• Rodolfo Vieira (+185)
  • Profit: ~$1,850
  • Total Payout: ~$2,850
  • Implied Win Probability: ~35%

These probabilities reflect how sportsbooks balance action, not an exact prediction of outcomes. Still, they highlight Nickal as the safer bet on paper, while Vieira offers a high-risk, high-reward proposition.

In summary, with Nickal’s line at its lowest point this week and Vieira creeping toward long-shot territory, bettors must weigh security against upside. BetOnline.ag currently offers the sharpest favorite line, and both books mirror each other on Vieira, giving you flexibility to chase the underdog’s payday wherever you like.