Winner: Kyle Daukaus
Confidence Score: 67Kyle Daukaus is younger (32 vs 37), has a slight height advantage, and most importantly, has a significant edge in defensive grappling with an 83% takedown defense compared to Gerald Meerschaert's 43%. While both are submission specialists, Daukaus has absorbed fewer significant strikes (43% defense vs 54% for Meerschaert) and lands at a higher accuracy (53% vs 45%). Meerschaert is extremely dangerous with submissions (29 sub wins), but his recent losses and poor takedown defense make him vulnerable against opponents who can keep the fight standing or defend submissions. Historically, fighters with high takedown defense and youth edge have outperformed older submission specialists in similar matchups. Daukaus' recent form is not stellar, but he has not shown the same level of submission susceptibility as other Meerschaert victims. The statistical and stylistic edges favor Daukaus, but Meerschaert's submission threat keeps it from being a high-confidence pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kyle Daukaus vs Gerald Meerschaert can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.
