Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo fight analysis
Event Details
Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025
Time: 14:00 UTC (18:00 GST)
Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Card: Preliminary Card of UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane
Introduction
The lightweight clash between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo is set to kick off the Preliminary Card of UFC 321 at the state-of-the-art Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on October 25, 2025. This bout, scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds, will see two contrasting styles collide under the bright lights of one of the largest mixed martial arts venues in the world. As fight fans prepare for another blockbuster weekend of action, all eyes will turn to this pivotal matchup that could reshape the landscape of the 155-pound division.
Favorite vs. Underdog
• Favorite: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (–116 at BetOnline.ag / –117 at BetRivers)
• Underdog: Matheus Camilo (–104 at BetOnline.ag / –107 at BetRivers)
Al-Selwady enters this contest as a slight betting favorite, carrying a 15-4 professional record and a reputation for heavy hands and first-round finishing ability (6 first-round stoppages). His blend of unrelenting pressure and ever-improving wrestling base has made him a handful for every opponent he’s faced under the UFC banner. At 29 years old, the Baton Rouge native boasts 8 knockout victories and routinely pushes his adversaries into deep waters with his cardio and pace.
On the other side of the Octagon, Brazilian prospect Matheus Camilo (9-3) comes in as the underdog but by no means is he an easy mark. The 24-year-old Rio Branco‐born fighter has flashed explosive power in the cage (4 KOs, 2 submissions) and a stellar takedown success rate (67%), backed by a crisp striking game that lands at nearly a 50% accuracy rate. Despite suffering a second-round submission loss in his UFC debut against Gabe Green in May 2025, Camilo’s performance showcased his resilience and his ability to adapt under fire.
Why This Fight Matters
Beyond the numbers and the odds, this matchup represents a true crossroads for both athletes:
- Al-Selwady aims to rebound from a third-round TKO loss to Loik Radzhabov in March 2024, proving that his championship aspirations are still very much alive.
- Camilo looks to shake off the nerves of his debut, silence doubters, and announce himself as a legitimate top-15 threat in the lightweight ranks.
Whether you’re backing the seasoned power of Al-Selwady or the dynamic upside of Camilo, this preliminary bout promises fireworks and strategic intrigue. Expect an intense chess match of strikes, takedowns, and grappling exchanges as each fighter lays the groundwork for a potential push toward the UFC’s deepest—and most competitive—division.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.
Fighter Profiles & Matchup Breakdown
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Profile
Background
- Age: 29
- Country: United States (Baton Rouge, LA)
- Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with heavy hands and improving wrestling
- Physicals: 68″ height, 69″ arm reach, 39″ leg reach
- UFC Debut: Mar. 2, 2024
Recent Form
While Al-Selwady brings a 15-4 pro record into this bout, he’s tasted defeat in his lone UFC outing.
- Mar. 2024: TKO loss (Round 3, 0:49) vs. Loik Radzhabov
- Prior to UFC: Four-fight win streak to close out regional career (three first-round stoppages—two KOs, one submission)
- Overall last 5 fights: 4 wins (3 by stoppage), 1 loss (TKO)
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
- Power & Finishing: 8 KOs, 6 first-round finishes—positional control and heavy punches.
- Durability & Cardio: Sustains pressure deep into Round 3, forces opponents to wilt.
- Defense vs. Strikes: 59% significant strike defense frustrates aggressive hitters.
Weaknesses
- Striking Accuracy: 35% significant strike connect rate—misses leave him open on counters.
- Offensive Grappling: 31% takedown accuracy—less reliable wrestling threat.
- Takedown Defense: 20%—susceptible to elite grapplers who force him to fight off his back.
Matheus Camilo Profile
Background
- Age: 24
- Country: Brazil (Rio Branco)
- Fighting Style: Aggressive MMA mix—power striker with high-percentage grappling
- Physicals: 70″ height (2″ taller than Al-Selwady), unlisted reach
- UFC Debut: May 17, 2025
Recent Form
Camilo enters at 9-3, looking to erase a rough Octagon debut:
- May 2025: Submission loss (R2, 3:43) vs. Gabe Green
- Before UFC: Built an 8-2 regional record with four finishes (2 KOs, 2 subs)
- Overall last 5 fights: 4 wins (3 by stoppage), 1 loss (submission)
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
- Striking Accuracy: 48%—lands nearly half of his significant strikes.
- Takedown Prowess: 67% success rate—transitions well to top control and ground-and-pound.
- Variety of Finishes: 4 KOs and 2 submissions highlight a versatile attack.
Weaknesses
- Takedown Defense: 0%—has yet to stop a single takedown, major red flag vs. wrestlers.
- Experience Under Fire: UFC debut exposed grappling holes and mental adjustment to elite pace.
- Average Fight Time: 8:43—tends to fade if opponent survives early onslaught.
Matchup Implications
- Size & Range: Camilo’s 2-inch height edge and crisp striking could keep Al-Selwady at bay.
- Wrestling Exchange: Al-Selwady must improve takedown defense or Camilo’s 67% accuracy will dominate.
- Finishing Window: Early rounds favor both men—Al-Selwady’s power vs. Camilo’s precision and grappling.
This clash of a power puncher with a high‐output finisher shapes up as a textbook striker-vs. wrestler puzzle—where small advantages in accuracy, defense, and grappling could swing the fight dramatically.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
- BetOnline.ag: –116
- BetRivers: –117
Matheus Camilo
- BetOnline.ag: –104
- BetRivers: –107
Across the board, Al-Selwady is installed as a slim favorite at roughly –116/–117, while Camilo has clawed his way from underdog territory into near pick’em levels at –104/–107. These tight lines reflect how evenly matched the UFC’s oddsmakers—and bettors—see this lightweight clash.
Underdog vs. Favorite
- Favorite: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (–116 at BetOnline.ag)
- Underdog: Matheus Camilo (–104 at BetOnline.ag)
Even though Al-Selwady remains the betting chalk, the margin is razor-thin. Smart money on Camilo has pushed his price down dramatically, suggesting the Brazilian’s grappling and striking mix is resonating with sharp action.
Line Movement Analysis
A glance at the odds history underscores a significant market shift over just 24–36 hours:
- Al-Selwady opened at –150 on October 12 (BetOnline.ag), later softening to –116 by October 13.
- Camilo debuted at +130, then slid into favorite territory at –104 (BetOnline.ag) and –107 (BetRivers).
This swing—over 200 points for Camilo, 34 points for Al-Selwady—signals heavy backing of the Brazilian, likely from knowledgeable bettors spotting value in his 67% takedown success and near-50% striking accuracy. Conversely, Al-Selwady’s line movement suggests the public is trimming off a portion of his once-comfortable favorite status.
Best Sportsbook for Betting
- BetOnline.ag offers the top numbers on both sides: –116 for Al-Selwady and –104 for Camilo.
- BetRivers trails slightly with –117/–107, but remains a solid secondary option.
Given the slim margins, locking in your wager at BetOnline.ag maximizes your potential return, regardless of which fighter you back.
Potential Payouts & Implied Chances
- $1,000 on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (–116)
• Total return ≈ $2,062 ($1,000 stake + ~$1,062 profit)
• Implied win probability: ~54% - $1,000 on Matheus Camilo (–104)
• Total return ≈ $1,961 ($1,000 stake + ~$961 profit)
• Implied win probability: ~51%
While bookmakers build a slight “vig” into these figures (so probabilities sum to >100%), the key takeaway is how close this fight truly is—each man hovers around the 50–55% win range in the eyes of the markets.
Summary: The early betting lines painted Al-Selwady as a clear favorite, but a sudden influx of sharp money on Camilo has flipped the script. Today’s best numbers sit at BetOnline.ag, where you can grab –116 on Al-Selwady or a juicy –104 on Camilo. Whether you side with the power-punching American or the well-rounded Brazilian, the odds guarantee this lightweight scrap will be among the most hotly contested prelim bouts on the entire UFC 321 card.
AI Pick: Abdul Kareem Al Selwady
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