Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot: UFC Odds & AI Pick

Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Fight Analysis

Introduction

Mark your calendars for Saturday, October 11, 2025, as the UFC returns to Brazil with a pivotal Lightweight showdown between two of the division’s most dynamic grapplers. The Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot will kick off at 23:00 UTC (8:00 PM local time) on October 11 at the state-of-the-art Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This highly anticipated bout pits former interim champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (35-11-0) against Poland’s surging contender Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot (25-3-0) in a clash of styles that could shape the Lightweight rankings for months to come.

Fighters at a Glance

• Charles Oliveira
  • Ranking: #4 in the UFC Lightweight Division
  • Style: Elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with a record 21 submission victories
  • Key Stat: 55% significant strike accuracy, 39% takedown accuracy
  • Recent Form: 1-1 over his last two Octagon outings, most recently dropping a decision to Ilia Topuria in June 2025

• Mateusz Gamrot
  • Ranking: #8 in the UFC Lightweight Division
  • Style: High-caliber wrestler with knockout power (8 KOs) and crisp striking
  • Key Stat: 52% significant strike accuracy, 91% takedown defense
  • Recent Form: 4-1 in his last five fights, including unanimous decision wins over Ludovit Klein and Rafael dos Anjos

Betting Odds & Underdog Spotlight

Across major sportsbooks, Charles Oliveira enters as the slight favorite, with odds sitting around –120 at DraftKings and –125 at FanDuel. In contrast, Mateusz Gamrot is labeled the underdog at approximately +100 (DraftKings) to –102 (FanDuel), reflecting a competitive but cautious market. Oliveira’s world-class submission arsenal and proven output in high-pressure fights make him the bettors’ choice, while Gamrot’s relentless wrestling pedigree and improving striking resume give him a puncher’s chance to derail the former titleholder on home turf.

What’s at Stake

For Oliveira, a victory over Gamrot would re-establish momentum after his loss to Topuria and potentially position him for another title eliminator. For Gamrot, toppling a Brazilian star in front of a raucous home crowd would vault him into the championship conversation and reward bettors who back the Polish grappler’s underdog odds. Expect fireworks early, as Oliveira hunts for submissions off the clinch or from his back, while Gamrot looks to neutralize the BJJ wizard with takedown entries and controlled top pressure.

This Lightweight battle promises a compelling chess match between two elite grapplers, and with both fighters boasting diverse finishing skills, the Octagon could erupt at any moment. Stay tuned for our full breakdown of each athlete’s strengths, weaknesses, and potential game-plans as we dive deeper into this must-watch main card attraction.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira

Background

• Age: 35
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with elite submission prowess

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Jun. 28, 2025 – Loss vs Ilia Topuria (Decision)
2. Nov. 16, 2024 – Win vs Michael Chandler (Unanimous Decision)
3. Apr. 13, 2024 – Loss vs Arman Tsarukyan (Split Decision)
4. Jun. 10, 2023 – Win vs Beneil Dariush (KO/TKO – Round 1, 4:10)
5. Oct. 22, 2022 – Loss vs Islam Makhachev (Submission – Round 2, 3:16)

After thrilling the crowd with a first-round TKO over Beneil Dariush in mid-2023, Oliveira’s tenure has been a seesaw between razor-thin decisions and high-stakes grappling battles. His loss to Topuria in June 2025 snapped a modest two-fight win streak, underscoring how even his dynamic offense can be neutralized by elite wrestlers and heavy hands.

Strengths

• Submission Record: Holds an all-time UFC record with 21 submission victories.
• Striking Accuracy: Lands 55% of his significant strikes—strong at choosing when to counter and set up takedowns.
• Versatility: Dangerous from top control or off his back; seamlessly transitions from striking to grappling.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 7:30 indicates he often finishes early or stays sharp throughout a full three-round war.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense: Defends only 56% of incoming takedowns, leaving him vulnerable to wrestlers who can chain single-leg entries.
• Striking Defense: Concedes strikes at a 49% success rate—susceptible to volume punchers who press forward.
• Decision Outcomes: Recent split and unanimous decision losses reveal difficulties when forced to win on the judges’ scorecards in close fights.

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Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot

Background

• Age: 34
• Country: Poland
• Fighting Style: High-level Wrestling with improving knockout and submission skills

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. May 31, 2025 – Win vs Ludovit Klein (Unanimous Decision)
2. Aug. 17, 2024 – Loss vs Dan Hooker (Split Decision)
3. Mar. 9, 2024 – Win vs Rafael Dos Anjos (Unanimous Decision)
4. Sep. 23, 2023 – Win vs Rafael Fiziev (KO/TKO – Round 2, 2:03)
5. Mar. 4, 2023 – Win vs Jalin Turner (Unanimous Decision)

Gamrot has rattled off four wins in five starts, showcasing his adaptability against strikers like Fiziev and seasoned veterans like Dos Anjos. His split decision loss to Dan Hooker highlighted occasional lapses in striking exchanges, but his wrestling pedigree consistently dictates the pace and location of the fight.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense: Boasts an elite 91% takedown defense, one of the best marks in the Lightweight division—very difficult to keep grounded.
• Durability & Cardio: Fights average 12:32, indicating elite conditioning and the ability to maintain pressure deep into the championship rounds.
• Balanced Offense: 52% significant strike accuracy combined with 37% takedown accuracy shows he can mix loud wrestling shots with crisp boxing.
• Physicality in Clench: Strong upper-body control and scrambles, often frustrating opponents’ submission attempts and resetting positional battles.

Weaknesses

• Submission Threat: Only 5 career submissions—while his grappling is stellar, he rarely hunts for chokes or armbars as aggressively as Oliveira.
• Power Finishes: 8 KO victories but no first-round finishes in UFC, suggesting he often leans on volume rather than one-punch knockouts.
• Striking Defense: Though he defends 59% of significant strikes, occasional lapses against high-level boxers can lead to close rounds slipping away.

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This stylistic duel between Oliveira’s world-class submission arsenal and Gamrot’s wrestling supremacy sets the stage for a high-stakes chess match. Each athlete enters with elite tools—Oliveira’s fight-finishing pedigree versus Gamrot’s impenetrable defense—making this one of the most intriguing Lightweights battles of the year.

Odds and Line Movement Breakdown

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Charles Oliveira is the favorite across most books, while Mateusz Gamrot carries the underdog tag. Here’s a snapshot of the current head-to-head (h2h) odds:

• Charles Oliveira

  • BetOnline.ag: –118
  • FanDuel: –125
  • DraftKings: –120

• Mateusz Gamrot

  • BetOnline.ag: –102
  • FanDuel: –102
  • DraftKings: +100

The consensus price for Oliveira sits around –121, while Gamrot’s consensus sits roughly at +32 (using –102 to +100). That gap indicates the market gives Oliveira a roughly 55% win probability and Gamrot around 50%, making this a tightly contested affair.

Best Sportsbook Picks

• To back Oliveira, BetOnline.ag offers the most favorable juice at –118.
• For the underdog money on Gamrot, DraftKings pays +100, the cleanest pick for maximum payout.

Line Movement Analysis

A close look at the DraftKings line history reveals modest shifts over the past week:

• Gamrot: Opened at +105 (Sept. 24) and shortened to +100 (Sept. 29), indicating slight backing on the underdog.
• Oliveira: Opened at –125 (Sept. 24) and moved to –120 (Sept. 29), suggesting a minor balancing as bets came in on both sides.

Across FanDuel and BetOnline.ag, the numbers have remained stable over the last 24–48 hours, with no dramatic swings—just incremental adjustments as liquidity builds. In short, there have been no large line swings that would hint at last-minute sharp action or standout public money surges.

Betting Strategy and Payouts

If you’re considering a $1,000 wager, here’s what you’d get back on a winning bet:

• Charles Oliveira (–118 at BetOnline.ag)

  • Profit: ~$847
  • Total Payout: ~$1,847

• Mateusz Gamrot (+100 at DraftKings)

  • Profit: $1,000
  • Total Payout: $2,000

With Oliveira’s ~55% implied probability and superior finishing upside, the favorite offers a balanced risk-reward. However, backers of Gamrot can double their money at even odds, a tempting proposition if you believe his wrestling can neutralize Oliveira’s world-class submission game.

Key Takeaways

• Oliveira is the bookies’ pick, but not a runaway favorite.
• Gamrot is underdog by design, yet carries a realistic path to victory.
• Best lines: –118 (Oliveira at BetOnline.ag) and +100 (Gamrot at DraftKings).
• Line movement has been minimal—no signs of heavy, late bets or sudden shape shifts.

Armed with these odds and payout scenarios, you can fine-tune your wagering strategy for what’s shaping up to be a razor-close Lightweight showdown in Rio de Janeiro. Good luck, and bet responsibly!