Winner: Punahele Soriano
Confidence Score: 65Punahele Soriano is likely to win due to his aggressive fighting style, superior finishing rate, and significant grappling advantage. Soriano has a much higher takedown accuracy (56% vs. 18%) and is more likely to dictate where the fight takes place. Despite a reach disadvantage, Soriano's striking accuracy (54%) and defense (48%) are similar to Veretennikov's, but Soriano finishes fights faster (average fight time 9:09 vs. 13:33) and has more first-round finishes, indicating explosive power. Veretennikov is 35 and has shown some vulnerability to KO/TKO in recent matchups, while Soriano is three years younger and has faced higher-level UFC competition for longer. Historically, fighters with Soriano's takedown accuracy and finishing rates in this weight class win a majority of similar style matchups, especially when facing older, less defensively sound opponents. However, Veretennikov's reach and sambo background could pose problems if Soriano can't implement his wrestling, so the confidence is moderate rather than high.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Punahele Soriano vs Nikolay Veretennikov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 can be found on the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 event page.