Brahimaj vs. Vanderford: UFC 320 Odds & Fight Analysis

Ramiz Brahimaj vs Austin Vanderford Fight Analysis

The Ramiz Brahimaj vs Austin Vanderford clash is set to kick off the early prelims on October 4, 2025, at the legendary T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. As part of the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 fight night, this Welterweight matchup will open the broadcast, airing at 22:00 UTC (which corresponds to 6:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM PT). Both men enter with explosive finishes on their résumés and contrasting skill sets that make this one of the most intriguing early bouts of UFC 320.

When and Where

• Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 22:00 UTC
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Card Position: Early Preliminary Card
• Event: UFC 320 – Ankalaev vs Pereira 2

The Favorite: Austin Vanderford

Hailing from Santa Rosa, California, Austin Vanderford (13–2–0) arrives in Vegas as the clear betting favorite, with odds around –260 (BetOnline.ag) to –250 (Caesars, BetMGM) across major sportsbooks. A former NCAA Division II wrestling champion, Vanderford made a splashy UFC debut on February 22, 2025, by scoring a second-round KO/TKO over Nikolay Veretennikov. Standing 71 inches tall with a 74-inch reach, Vanderford boasts:

• Sig. Strike Accuracy: 63%
• Sig. Strike Defense: 51%
• Takedown Defense: 100%
• Average Fight Time: 8:28

His blend of wrestling pedigree, heavy hands (5 KOs), and granite defense makes him a difficult puzzle for any submission specialist. Expect Vanderford to dictate distance early, mixing takedown feints with heavy leg kicks before unleashing his precise boxing combinations.

The Underdog: Ramiz Brahimaj

On the opposite corner is Bronx‐born finisher Ramiz Brahimaj (12–5–0), a relentless submission artist who boasts an astounding 11 first-round finishes in his career. Brahimaj enters with +220 to +225 odds (BetOnline.ag +220 / BetRivers +225), positioning him as the underdog—albeit one with serious grappling pedigree:

• Wins by Submission: 11
• Takedown Accuracy: 41%
• Sig. Strike Accuracy: 45%
• Takedown Defense: 47%
• Average Fight Time: 7:33

Since debuting in November 2020, Brahimaj has dazzled fans with quick finishes over the likes of Mickey Gall and Billy Goff. His aggressive wrestle-and-roll approach aims to close distance, force scrambles, and hunt for rear-naked chokes or guillotines. The key for “Rocky” Brahimaj will be avoiding Vanderford’s heavy hands in the opening minutes and dragging the fight to the mat.

Clash of Styles

This bout epitomizes a classic striker vs. grappler narrative:

• Vanderford’s Strengths: Superior takedown defense, crisp boxing, and finishing power.
• Brahimaj’s Edge: High‐octane wrestling entries, elite submission IQ, and relentless pace.

If Vanderford can keep the fight upright and land combinations in range, he’ll likely steamroll to a decision or late finish. Conversely, if Brahimaj can survive the early storm, force a clinch or scramble, and lock up his patented submissions, we could see another spectacular opening‐round tap.

As the favorite, Vanderford holds the cards on paper, but Brahimaj’s finish rate and submission prowess make him a dangerous live dog. Expect fireworks in this pivotal Welterweight showdown to kick off the night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ramiz Brahimaj vs Austin Vanderford can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 can be found on the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Austin Vanderford – The Wrestler-Turned-Power Puncher

Age: 34
Country: United States (Santa Rosa, CA)
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling with heavy boxing
Physicals: 71″ Height, 74″ Reach

Recent Form

• UFC Debut (Feb. 22, 2025): KO/TKO win vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (R2, 4:13)
• Pro Record: 13-2-0 overall
• Win Streak: 7 consecutive victories before joining UFC, including 5 finishes

Though Vanderford’s octagon résumé is nascent, his pedigree is not: a former NCAA Division II wrestling champion who has translated elite takedown defense into one of the UFC’s most underrated defensive arsenals. His lone UFC outing saw him close distance, control the center, and land punishing strikes en route to a second‐round stoppage. Across 15 pro bouts, he boasts 5 KOs and 3 submissions, showcasing a growing comfort on the feet.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Take Down Defense (100%) – Virtually impossible to wrestle down.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (63%) – High‐percentage punching, seldom missing.
  • Finishing Power – Five career KOs; heavy hands that break forward momentum.
• Areas to Watch:
  • Takedown Offense (25%) – Less inclined to bully opponents on the mat, potentially ceding position if forced wrestling.
  • Cardio in Later Rounds – With an average fight time of 8:28, extended scraps could test his gas tank.

Ramiz Brahimaj – The Submission Mauler

Age: 32
Country: United States (The Bronx, NY)
Fighting Style: MMA all‐rounder with elite submission focus
Physicals: 70″ Height, 72″ Reach

Recent Form

• May 31, 2025: Submission win vs. Billy Goff (R1, 3:16)
• Nov. 16, 2024: KO/TKO win vs. Mickey Gall (R1, 2:55)
• May 18, 2024: Unanimous decision loss vs. Themba Gorimbo
• Feb. 26, 2022: Submission win vs. Micheal Gillmore (R1, 2:02)
• Jan. 15, 2022: Unanimous decision loss vs. Court McGee

Brahimaj is a highlight‐reel grinder—11 of his 12 wins come by first‐round finish. He storms forward with unsettling relentlessness, hunting takedowns, scrambles, and submission hunts (especially rear‐naked chokes and guillotines). Despite two recent decision setbacks, his pace and ground IQ remain elite.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Finishing Rate: 11 first‐round stoppages; thrives on early scrambles.
  • Takedown Accuracy (41%) – Aggressive entries that disrupt rhythm.
  • Submission Prowess: 11 career submissions; capitalizes on any limb‐oriented scramble.
• Areas to Watch:
  • Significant Strike Defense (44%) – Can be tagged by precision strikers during entries.
  • Takedown Defense (47%) – Vulnerable if opponent reverses positions or sprawls effectively.
  • Striking Power: Only 1 KO; may lack the punching power to keep elite wrestlers honest.

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Style Contrast & Key Dynamics

• Vanderford’s Blueprint: Keep the fight upright, pepper outputs with leg kicks, and lean on takedown defense to nullify Brahimaj’s submission game.
• Brahimaj’s Gameplan: Close the distance in bursts, force clinches or scrambles, and hunt chokes before Vanderford’s boxing can fully sync.

This striker-vs-grappler chess match hinges on Vanderford’s ability to maintain range and Brahimaj’s urgency to drag the bout into dangerous grappling territory. Each fighter’s statistical profile underlines their blueprint: Vanderford’s precision and defense vs. Brahimaj’s aggression and submission IQ. Expect the early rounds to be a high-stakes cat-and-mouse—and a telling indicator of who will seize control en route to UFC 320.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night draws near, Austin Vanderford (-260 to -250 across major books) commands the role of clear favorite, while Ramiz Brahimaj (+200 to +225) slots in as the live underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the best lines available:

• Favorite (Austin Vanderford):

  • Caesars & BetMGM: –250 (best juice for favorites)
  • DraftKings: –258
  • BetOnline: –260
  • FanDuel: –265
  • BetRivers: –295

• Underdog (Ramiz Brahimaj):

  • BetRivers: +225 (top payout for underdogs)
  • BetOnline: +220
  • DraftKings: +210
  • Caesars: +205
  • BetMGM & FanDuel: +200

Key Takeaway: If you’re backing Vanderford, you’ll get the sharpest line at –250 (Caesars, BetMGM). For Brahimaj, the biggest upside sits with +225 at BetRivers.

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Line Movement & Swing Analysis

A look at the odds history reveals steady momentum behind Vanderford as bettors poured in:

• Austin Vanderford: Opened around –180, briefly dipped to –160, then climbed sharply through –185 and –225, hitting –250 by Sept. 21 and topping out at –260 on Sept. 26.
• Ramiz Brahimaj: Began near +155, crept into underdog territory with +140, then drifted out past +190 and +205, peaking at +220 on Sept. 26.

Major Swings:

• Vanderford’s line jumped from –185 to –225 in a single afternoon, signaling heavy public money.
• Brahimaj’s odds slid from +160 to +190 in the same window, reflecting sharp resistance to betting him as an upset.

Overall, the market strongly favors Vanderford, with Brahimaj’s price steadily inflating—an indicator that smart money and casual bettors alike are siding with the wrestler-turned-power puncher.

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Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you’re laying down $1,000 on either athlete, here’s what you’d collect based on the best available odds:

• $1,000 on Austin Vanderford at –250

  • Profit: $400
  • Total Return: $1,400
  • Implied Win Probability: ~71%

• $1,000 on Ramiz Brahimaj at +225

  • Profit: $2,250
  • Total Return: $3,250
  • Implied Win Probability: ~31%

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Summary & Best Books to Use

• Favorite Angle: Vanderford at –250 (Caesars, BetMGM) offers the juiciest favorite line—minimizing your risk.
• Underdog Angle: Brahimaj at +225 (BetRivers) provides the highest upside for contrarian bettors.
• Sharpest Movement: The line’s march from –180 to –260 for Vanderford underscores strong confidence in his wrestling pedigree and knockout power.

Whether you lean into the heavy favorite or chase the big payday with the underdog, understanding these odds shifts ensures you lock in the best value for UFC 320’s electrifying early prelim.