Steve Garcia vs David Onama Odds, Picks & Fight Analysis

Steve Garcia vs David Onama Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, November 1, 2025, the UFC returns to the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, with a pivotal Featherweight clash between two rising contenders: Steve Garcia Jr. and David Onama. Scheduled for the Main Card of UFC Fight Night, the bout is slated to begin at 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT, promising an electric atmosphere as both men look to break into the divisional elite.

Fight Details

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Garcia vs Onama
• Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT
• Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Weight Class: Featherweight (146 lbs)
• Card Placement: Main Card

Betting Outlook

The oddsmakers have positioned this Featherweight scrap as a pick’em, with both warriors listed at -110 odds (BetOnline.ag). That dead-even line underscores how evenly matched these two stand at the #12 and #13 spots in the official UFC rankings:

• Steve Garcia Jr. (–110) – The 33-year-old Albuquerque native brings a devastating knockout arsenal into this contest, boasting 14 KOs in his 18–5 pro record. Garcia’s frightening power and rapid finishes make him a popular choice for bettors seeking an early stoppage.
• David Onama (–110) – Hailing from Uganda and carrying a 14–2 mark, Onama is no stranger to high-level competition. His well-rounded skill set—51% striking accuracy, 53% takedown defense—and four submission wins make him a dangerous underdog in his first head-to-head with a veteran puncher like Garcia.

Although the lines are even, some sportsbooks tilt ever so slightly toward Garcia thanks to his KO prowess and sub-six-minute average fight time. Conversely, Onama’s diverse finishing ability (four subs, seven knockouts) and improving wrestling credentials present a compelling counterargument: he may well neutralize Garcia’s power by dragging the bout into deep waters.

Why This Matters

This matchup isn’t just another featherweight affair—it has serious Top 10 implications. A win for Garcia propels him closer to title contention, while Onama can vault past multiple contenders with a signature victory on American soil. Both fighters have shown championship hunger in recent outings: Garcia blitzed former contender Calvin Kattar via unanimous decision in July, and Onama dismantled Giga Chikadze on the scorecards in April. The winner here could emerge as the next challenger for the division’s hierarchy.

Stay tuned as we break down each athlete’s strengths, weaknesses, and tactical approaches. Whether you’re backing Garcia’s relentless aggression or betting on Onama’s technical versatility, this fight promises fireworks—and ranking shakeups—when the octagon door closes on November 1.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Steve Garcia vs David Onama can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

David Onama: The Versatile Striker

Age: 31
Country: Uganda
Fighting Style: Striker
UFC Record: 14-2-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Apr. 26, 2025 vs. Giga Chikadze – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Nov. 16, 2024 vs. Roberto Romero – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Apr. 27, 2024 vs. Jonathan Pearce – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Jun. 24, 2023 vs. Gabriel Santos – Win (KO/TKO, R2 4:13)
• Aug. 13, 2022 vs. Nate Landwehr – Loss (Majority Decision)

Strengths

• Balanced Offense: With a 51% significant strike accuracy, Onama picks his shots smartly, mixing leg kicks, jabs and power shots to keep opponents guessing.
• Submission Threat: Four career submissions underline his grappling savvy—if he closes distance, he can punish opponents on the mat.
• Cardio & Durability: An average fight time of 12:06 shows he’s comfortable in deep waters and rarely fades late.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (53%): Struggles against heavy wrestlers; could be vulnerable to Garcia’s high-level sprawl-and-brawl game.
• Early Power Exchange: Though he boasts seven knockouts, Onama has shown susceptibility to early blitzes—he’s been finished in the first two rounds.
• Moderate Takedown Offense (30%): Not a high-volume wrestler; might rely too heavily on striking exchanges, where heavy hitters like Garcia excel.

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Steve Garcia Jr.: The Heavy Hitter

Age: 33
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle
UFC Record: 18-5-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Jul. 12, 2025 vs. Calvin Kattar – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Sep. 7, 2024 vs. Kyle Nelson – Win (KO/TKO, R1 3:59)
• Jul. 20, 2024 vs. Seungwoo Choi – Win (KO/TKO, R1 1:36)
• Dec. 9, 2023 vs. Melquizael Costa – Win (KO/TKO, R2 1:01)
• Apr. 8, 2023 vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke – Win (KO/TKO, R2 0:36)

Strengths

• Explosive Power: Fourteen KOs in 18 wins and a 6:02 average fight time make him one of the division’s most feared finishers.
• Defensive Wrestling (89% Takedown Defense): Elite sprawl ability nullifies most takedown attempts, forcing opponents to stand and trade.
• Strike Defense: At 58% significant strike defense, Garcia can slip and counter with high success, minimizing damage in exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Submission Defense: With zero career submission wins and a lack of grappling volume, Garcia may be tested if taken to the mat.
• Striking Accuracy (49%): Slightly below Onama’s mark—inefficient volume could leave openings against a precise striker.
• Cardio Concerns: Early finishes mask potential gas tank issues in deep, grueling battles beyond two rounds.

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This clash of power vs. precision, ferocity vs. versatility, sets the stage for a tactical chess match inside the Octagon. Onama’s well-rounded toolkit against Garcia’s knockout pedigree makes this one of the most intriguing Featherweight bouts on the Main Card.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Steve Garcia Jr. and David Onama are dead-even in the eyes of oddsmakers, each sitting at -110 on the moneyline at BetOnline.ag. In plain terms:

• Steve Garcia Jr. (–110)
• David Onama (–110)

With both fighters priced identically, there is no clear favorite or underdog—this is a true pick’em. However, the slightest market lean can shift as bettors chase value, so keeping an eye on line movement is critical.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On:
BetOnline.ag currently offers these identical –110 lines on both men, making it the top choice for a straightforward wager on this bout. Their competitive juice and timely updates give bettors the best chance to lock in fair prices.

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Line Movement & Swings

A close look at the odds history reveals notable fluctuations in market sentiment:

David Onama (BetOnline.ag)

• Oct. 21, 21:08 ET: –105
• Oct. 21, 21:29 ET: +100 (brief underdog)
• Oct. 21, 21:39 ET: –101
• Oct. 21, 21:44 ET: +101
• Oct. 21, 21:56 ET: +100
• Oct. 21, 22:28 ET: –115 (sharp move into favorite territory)
• Oct. 22, 01:39 ET: –114
• Oct. 22, 01:58 ET: –132 (big peak favorite)
• Oct. 22, 03:27 ET: –105
• Oct. 22, 07:48 ET: –110

Steve Garcia Jr. (BetOnline.ag)

• Oct. 21, 21:08 ET: –115
• Oct. 21, 21:29 ET: –120
• Oct. 21, 21:39 ET: –119
• Oct. 21, 21:44 ET: –121
• Oct. 21, 21:56 ET: –120
• Oct. 21, 22:28 ET: –105
• Oct. 22, 01:39 ET: –106
• Oct. 22, 01:58 ET: +112 (brief underdog swing)
• Oct. 22, 03:27 ET: –115
• Oct. 22, 07:48 ET: –110

Key observations:

• Onama surged as high as –132 before settling back to –110, indicating heavy early money.
• Garcia briefly dipped to +112, suggesting late sharp money on Onama or public support for the Ugandan.
• The back-and-forth action signals a truly even matchup with bettors split on power (Garcia) vs. precision (Onama).

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Payout & Implied Odds

If you stake $1,000 on either fighter at –110, here’s what you’d see:

• Total return: $1,909 (your $1,000 stake plus $909 profit).
• Implied probability: roughly 52% chance to win (each).

Because the lines are identical, the value lies in timing your wager and shopping around for plus-juice opportunities elsewhere. For now, BetOnline.ag’s –110 on both men represents the sharpest, most balanced market available.

With the card approaching and no clear favorite, bettors should watch live moneyline shifts and lock in on dips—whether you believe in Garcia’s one-punch power or Onama’s well-rounded offense, there’s value on both sides of this Featherweight pick’em.