Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski: UFC Odds & Analysis

Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski fight analysis

Introduction

The Middleweight clash between Cam Rowston and Andre Petroski is set to heat up the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes, taking place at the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. The bout is scheduled for Saturday, September 27, 2025, with the preliminary card getting underway at 11:00 PM local time (WST). The two combatants will make their walkouts roughly around 1:20 AM UTC on Sunday, September 28, as part of the event’s early evening broadcast in North America.

Fight Details

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes (Preliminary Card)
• Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025
• Time: Preliminary Card starts at 11:00 PM WST / 1:20 AM UTC
• Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia
• Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lb)
• Bout Order: Mid-card prelim, slated as one of the most intriguing grappling vs. wrestling matchups on the card

Heading into this bout, Andre Petroski enters as the clear favorite, carrying an updated consensus line around –185 to –190 on most major sportsbooks (BetOnline.ag, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers). The seasoned American wrestler boasts a 13-5-0 professional record, with a well-rounded skill set that includes a 52% takedown accuracy and an impressive 86% takedown defense. Having debuted in the Octagon in August 2021, Petroski has demonstrated cardio, grappling control, and the ability to grind out decisions (4 first-round finishes, 4 submission victories, 4 KOs).

On the other side of the Octagon, Cam Rowston arrives as the underdog, priced between +145 and +165 across leading books. The Australian newcomer, making his official UFC debut on home soil, holds a 12-3-0 pro record with a stylistic emphasis on Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu—his 7 submission wins underline a deep, dangerous ground game. At 30 years old, Rowston stands 74 inches tall with a 78-inch reach, giving him a slight advantage in range. His average fight time of 8:59 suggests an aggressive approach from the opening bell, and he’ll be looking to capitalize on his 6 first-round finishes to shock the favorite.

This showdown pits Petroski’s wrestling base, stout defense, and methodical volume striking (49% accuracy, 53% defense) against Rowston’s slick submission pedigree, length, and finishing instincts. With Petroski focused on neutralizing bottom-side attempts and controlling distance, Rowston will be hunting early takedowns or clinch work to drag the fight into his realm. The champion’s camp for Petroski will emphasize defensive grappling, high pace, and opportunistic ground transitions, while Rowston’s coaches undoubtedly plan to test Petroski’s jiu-jitsu under duress, targeting reversals and submission entries.

As the fight approaches, betting lines have gradually shifted in favor of the American – a testament to his experience and perceived game-plan superiority. However, the energy of a hometown debut, combined with Rowston’s relentless submission hunting, makes this an underdog pick that could pay dividends. Whether you’re riding with the favorite’s wrestling thesis or banking on the debuting grappler’s finishing upside, this clash promises high stakes and technical intrigue in the heart of Perth.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Andre Petroski: The American Wrestler

Age: 34
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling
UFC Debut: August 28, 2021

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts)

• Jun. 14, 2025 vs Edmen Shahbazyan – Loss (Unanimous Decision)
• Feb. 15, 2025 vs Rodolfo Vieira – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Sep. 7, 2024 vs Dylan Budka – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Jul. 13, 2024 vs Josh Fremd – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Mar. 30, 2024 vs Jacob Malkoun – Loss (TKO, R2 0:39)

Petroski has logged five Octagon outings, showing elite takedown defense (86%) and relentless pace. He has split his last five 3–2, with three decision victories against durable grapplers and a lone stoppage loss via TKO.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (86%): One of the best in the division, makes opponents abandon wrestling plans.
• Cardio & Control: Averages 11:27 per fight, grinding out full three-round affairs and wearing down foes.
• Well-Rounded Finisher: Holds 4 KOs and 4 submissions—dangerous both on feet and back-of-the-head scrambles.

Weaknesses

• Low Finishing Rate: Only 4 of 13 wins came by stoppage; often dragged into decisions.
• Striking Output: 49% significant strike accuracy, 53% defense—solid but not elite.
• Age & Pace: At 34, may be vulnerable if pressured early and forced to dig deep.

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Cam Rowston: The Aussie Submission Artist

Age: 30
Country: Australia
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
UFC Debut: September 27, 2025

Recent Form (Regional Circuit)

• Pro Record: 12–3–0
• First-Round Finishes: 6 total stoppages before R2
• Finishing Distribution: 7 submissions, 4 KOs

While Rowston has yet to compete in the Octagon, his 12–3 pro ledger shows a relentless grappling attack. He’s finished half of his career wins in the first round and carries momentum off multiple submission victories on the Australian circuit.

Strengths

• Submission Prowess: 58% of wins by tapout; constantly hunting chokes and armbars.
• Reach Advantage: 78″ arm span vs. Petroski’s 73″—favours long-range entries and clutching.
• Early Fight Tempo: 8:59 average fight time suggests he looks to impose his will immediately.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (29%): Below-average, prime target for a wrestler like Petroski.
• Unproven on Big Stage: No UFC experience means adjustment to Octagon size, crowd, and pressure.
• Striking Defense (50%): Mediocre at avoiding significant strikes; can be out-landed.

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Tactical Breakdown

This bout is a classic wrestler vs. grappler chess match.

• Petroski’s Game Plan: Use elite takedown defense to stay upright, press with jabs and leg kicks, sap Rowston’s gas tank, and look for late-fight control.
• Rowston’s Path to Victory: Close distance quickly off the whistle, secure single-leg or clinch takedowns, scramble aggressively into submissions, and finish before Petroski finds his rhythm.

Petroski’s experience in five UFC contests gives him a clear experience edge, but Rowston’s submission résumé and reach make him a dangerous debutant. A decisive key: can Rowston neutralize Petroski’s wrestling early, or will Petroski dictate range and grind out another decision victory?

Odds and Betting History

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes, Andre Petroski is established as the clear favorite, while Cam Rowston rounds out as the underdog on most major sportsbooks.

• Andre Petroski (Favorite):

• BetOnline.ag: -190
• Caesars: -185
• FanDuel: -174 (best price)
• DraftKings: -180
• BetUS: -190
• BetMGM: -185
• BetRivers: -182

• Cam Rowston (Underdog):

• BetOnline.ag: +165 (best price)
• Caesars: +155
• FanDuel: +146
• DraftKings: +150
• BetUS: +158
• BetMGM: +150
• BetRivers: +145

The biggest gap is at FanDuel, where you can back Petroski at a slightly shorter price (-174) than elsewhere, and at BetOnline.ag, you can back Rowston at the juiciest underdog line (+165).

Line Movement

A glance at the line history reveals steady growth in support for Petroski and increasing skepticism toward Rowston:

• Petroski opened around -160 on BetOnline.ag (Sept 7) and drifted to -190 by fight week.
• Rowston began at +140 on BetOnline.ag and climbed to +165 over the same period.

This shift indicates bettors and oddsmakers have gradually moved weight behind Petroski, likely influenced by his recent UFC résumé and wrestling pedigree. The largest swing for Petroski occurred between Sept. 24 (–170) and Sept. 27 (–190), suggesting late money or new intel bolstered his standing. Conversely, Rowston’s line jump from +140 to +165 mirrors that momentum against him, underscoring his underdog status.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• To back the favorite, FanDuel’s –174 offers the most favorable odds—every $100 risked returns approximately $1574.
• To back the underdog, BetOnline.ag’s +165 yields the highest upside—every $100 risked returns approximately $2650.

If you’re leaning toward Petroski’s wrestling control, lock in FanDuel’s price. If you believe Rowston’s submission prowess can shock the hometown crowd, BetOnline.ag currently provides the best return.

Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you had $1,000 riding on either fighter at today’s top prices:

• Andre Petroski at –174 (FanDuel):

  • Payout: ~$1,574 total return
  • Implied Win Probability: ~64%

• Cam Rowston at +165 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Payout: ~$2,650 total return
  • Implied Win Probability: ~38%

These figures highlight Petroski’s status as the betting favorite, tempered by Rowston’s attractive upside should the Australian newcomer pull off an upset. Whether you hedge on Petroski’s consistency or chase Rowston’s debut fireworks, the spread in payout and implied chance offers clear paths for both risk-averse and risk-seeking bettors.